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RAS Sunday Night "Early Looks" Report - Week 2
RAS Sunday Night "Early Looks" Report - Week 2
EARLY LOOK: Northwestern +7.5 over TCU (Thursday)
The Wildcats reached their first bowl game in 3 years last season and return a whopping 17 starters. They feature a legitimate Big 10 offensive line that paved the way for over 212 rushing yards a game last season and all five starters are back from that unit. Senior RB Herron is a gifted runner and receiver out of the backfield. Junior QB Brett Basanez is back for his third year as a starter. He took a step back last year after a promising freshman year, but his numbers were hurt by multiple injuries at the receiver positions. He appears set for a good year. Defensively Northwestern allowed 16 points per game less last year than in 2002 and with 9 starters back should continue to move forward. Their entire defensive line returns in tact and features two projected NFL draft picks. *Check status of starting DE Loren Howard (top pass rusher) who left practice Sunday due to an apparent ankle injury.
It is difficult to measure TCU's 11-2 record last season as they played one of the easiest schedules (97th SOS rating) in the country. Their highest quality win probably coming by 3 points over Louisville in Forth Worth. TCU defensive coordinator David Bailiff left for a head coaching job and the vaunted TCU front seven only returns one starter. All three defensive line starters received all-conference honors last season and all three must be replaced. TCU looks strong on offense but they have a QB controversy heading into the season between senior Brandon Hassell and junior Tye Gunn. Both are expected to see extensive playing time which is almost never a good thing.
Northwestern is 13-6 ATS in September and 6-2 ATS in non-conference road games under Randy Walker. TCU is 1-2 ATS in season openers and 1-3 ATS at home vs non-conference foes under Gary Patterson. Northwestern will be looking to avenge a 48-24 loss two years ago when they were one of the worst teams in any major conference. Needless to say they have improved significantly since then. This is an upperclassmen dominated Wildcat team that has worked extremely hard to reach this point. Look for Northwestern to win the battle of the trenches and compete for an outright win here. Take the points.
EARLY LOOK: Washington State -1 over New Mexico (Friday)
The Cougars have won 10 games in three consecutive seasons and despite heavy losses (only 6 returning starters) they have many quality returnees who played significant roles last season. WSU is the only team ranked in the top 10 at the end of last season who starts this season unranked and they will feed off that for extra motivation. WSU features a physical offensive line that outplayed (4.8 yards per rush, 0 sacks allowed) the vaunted Texas defensive line in last years Holiday Bowl. They have three starters back from that unit and two other returnees with starting experience. Early indications suggest the offensive line will be even better this year. Last years running game primarily consisted of two physical bruising backs, but this year good looking JC transfer Jerome Harrison will add the threat of speed to the running attack. Sophomore QB Josh Swogger has been touted as a future pro since his arrival at WSU. He was forced into action a little before he was ready last year as a redshirt freshman due to injuries to starter Matt Kegal and although he did not put up great numbers, he exhibited great potential. He saw action in 9 games and that experience combined with being "the man" from day one in Spring should pay dividends. The Cougs must replace three good receivers but sophomore Chris Jordan caught 28 balls as a freshman last year, and standout TE Troy Bienemann provides a huge target. Highly recruited freshman WR Michael Bumpus is sure to get some touches.
Defensively, the Cougars only return two starters but they are good ones in all conference LB Will Derting and standout senior CB Karl Paymah. Senior safeties Hamza Abdullah and Jeremy Bohannon as well as sophomore LB Scott Davis each made 20 or more stops last year. While the defense probably will not be as good as last years standout unit, they will still be effective in head coach Doba's system. He has been coaching defense here since 1994 and it remains a priority.
New Mexico is coming off three straight winning seasons and back to back bowl bids but this will be the biggest rebuilding year in Rocky Long's tenure here. The Lobo's must replace a three year starting QB and two standout wide receivers on offense, and six of their top seven tacklers on defense. New Mexico has made great strides in recent years but they are still not exactly a hotbed of talent. It is going to be difficult for them to reload, particularly early in the season as they break in a new QB. Well regarded defensive coordinator Bronco Mendenhall left for BYU prior to last year and his departure may be felt more this year with all of the personnel losses on that side of the ball. New Mexico is badly undersized and inexperienced on the defensive line. Their biggest starter is 6-2, 269 pounds and the overall average weight is just 254. The three defensive line starters they must replace all received 1st or 2nd team all conference honors last year. They also must replace two all-conference LB's who tied for the team lead with 100 tackles each.
Both teams suffer heavy losses from last season but I like Washington State's chances of reloading quickly much better especially with a much more experienced and talented starting QB. Last year WSU was coming off two straight road games at Notre Dame and at Colorado and still beat the Lobos 23-13. They shut New Mexico out in the 2nd half and only allowed 23 rushing yards on 22 attempts. WSU finished with 433-to-257 total yard and 27-to-12 first down edges but settled for three very short FG's or else the game would have been more lopsided. UNM head coach Rocky Long always puts more emphasis on conference games. UNM is just 6-16 straight up vs Division 1 non-conference foes (wins over Utah State twice, NMSU twice, Baylor, and UTEP) and just 8-14 ATS under Long. They have also been slow starters under long going 7-17 ATS in first 5 games of season compared to 26-14 ATS after. WSU surprised a lot of people last year and could do so again. They outclass New Mexico here.
EARLY LOOK: Vanderbilt +5 over South Carolina
This game is of immeasurable importance to the Commodores. They have 7 "winnable" games this year and there has been much talk about the prospects of them reaching a bowl game for the first time in 22 years. Don't laugh now, but they do have a chance. It all starts with this opening game. Vandy has suffered through two years of futility under 3rd year coach Bobby Johnson (2-10 in both of first two seasons). He has fielded some of the youngest SEC teams you could imagine but this year is what they have been working towards. Vandy returns 10 starters on offense and 11 starters on defense from last year! Vandy features an offensive and defensive lineman who were named to the preseason all-SEC team. Starting QB Jay Cutler is a legitimate NFL prospect. He has received rave reviews in fall practices. The receiving group is said to be much improved as well. Running back duo of Kwane Doster and Norval McKenzie remains in tact. The defense features SEC sack leader Jovan Haye, stud LB Moses Osemwegie (126 tackles, 10.5 for loss last year) and 9 other returning starters. For the first time in a while, Vandy has a reasonably competitive SEC team.
South Carolina is coming off back to back 5-7 seasons. Their offense has struggled the last two seasons and even with 9 returning starters back it is hard to foresee major improvement with QB Pinkins still the starter. He is for the most part an inconsistent passer and decision maker. He completed only 50.3% of his passes last year. Head coach Holtz made some coaching changes at the end of last year and has brought in former Cincinnati head coach Rick Minter as his new defensive coordinator. He will be the third coordinator in three years as the Gamecocks miss former DC Charlie Strong who moved on to Florida prior to last season after great success here. They allowed 26.2ppg last season which is the most in the Holtz era. Eight starters are back but two of the losses were key performers LB Garrison (leading tackler), CB Robinson (1st round draft choice), and CB Eiland (6th round draft choice).
Vanderbilt should have confidence heading into this game. They actually outgained the Gamecocks 456-to-379 in last years meeting in Columbia. SC capitalized on two turnovers deep in Vandy territory to take a 21-3 early lead. Vandy fought back but eventually lost 35-24 finishing with a -3 turnover ratio. Quote from Lou Holtz after the game, "I went to Skip when we were up 28-10 and said we can't stop them, you will have to control it on offense." With almost everyone back and a change of venue they must feel they have a good chance of turning the tables.
South Carolina fans are already calling this game an easy win and looking ahead to their huge home opener vs Georgia the following week. Meanwhile, this could not be any bigger of a game for Vandy who has a BYE following this. If South Carolina does not bring their A game, they will lose this game outright. The Gamecocks ended last season with 4 straight losses and are just 3-7 ATS (0-2 ATS on road) in the role of the favorite in past two seasons. They are also 1-4-1 ATS in season openers under Holtz. Even with extremely young teams, the Commodores are 5-2-2 ATS as a home dog under Bobby Johnson. One of those ties was a heartbreaking 7 point OT loss to bowl bound Georgia Tech last season. Take the points.
EARLY LOOK: UCLA -1 over Oklahoma State
Second year head coach Karl Dorrell when asked to compare his team at this same point last year, "night and day difference." Dorrell's offensive scheme had been called too complex by many and the Bruin offense was horrible last year only averaging 19.1ppg while setting a school record with 91 punts. This year the offense should do much better under new offensive coordinator Tom Cable. In four years as head coach at Idaho, Cable's teams finished in the top 10 nationally in total yards twice. Prior to that he served as OC at Colorado. He inherits 9 returning starters to work with. The Bruins have an experienced QB in junior Drew Olson (14 career starts) who is poised for a big season. They have a strong offensive line with 4 returning starters and 2 others with starting experience. They are deep at running back with sophomore Maurice Drew and senior Manual White who is finally 100% healthy. The Bruins were 6-2 before White was sidelined by injury last year. Senior WR Craig Bragg has led the team in catches the last two years and is back. Big playmaker Tab Perry (#2 receiver in 2002, missed last year due to academics) is also back and should make a big impact. Highly touted junior TE Mercedes Lewis gives Olsen three star quality targets.
Considering the struggles of the offense, the UCLA defense was outstanding last year. They limited opponents to 23.5 points and just 318 yards per game while being on the field far more than their share. They should get more rest this year but will have to replace their entire starting defensive line. I give much credit for the success of last years defense to ex-Colorado State defensve coordinator Larry Kerr. The UCLA defense improved greatly under his direction while the Colorado State defense was noticably worse last year in his absence. He still has 5 returning starters to work with and even with some recent injury issues the team should again be solid defensively in their second year of his system.
Due to the departure of starting QB Josh Fields (pro baseball career) and subsequent injury to highly touted true freshman Bobby Reid, redshirt freshman Donovan Woods has inherited the OSU starting QB job by default. Woods is said to be a great athlete but reportedly has struggled at times in fall scrimmages. The bottom line is he will be making his collegiate debut vs a hungry UCLA team on the road at the Rose Bowl. OSU is going to be forced to use a limited playbook and just hope for the best. The UCLA defense will certainly be good enough to stop a one dimensional attack. Overall the Cowboys return 14 solid starters but starting QB, record breaking receiver, and all conference defensive end are among the losses. This team is on the young side with only seven seniors expected to start this game.
The Cowboys are 0-3 straight up and 1-2 ATS in season openers under Les Miles. OSU is 2-7 straight up on the road in last two seasons with only wins coming vs SMU (-24) and Baylor (-27) last year. They are 3-7 ATS in road games in a non-favorite role under Miles. Talk throughout UCLA camp has indicated a much improved new attitude and new level of commitment. Former UCLA head coach Bob Toledo recruited very well (classes ranked #12 in 2001 and #9 in 2002 nationally) in his final years in Westwood and that bodes well for this years team. I expect the Bruins to start the season on a positive note.
Early looks are recommended as 1/2 UNIT plays.
Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
EARLY LOOK: Northwestern +7.5 over TCU (Thursday)
The Wildcats reached their first bowl game in 3 years last season and return a whopping 17 starters. They feature a legitimate Big 10 offensive line that paved the way for over 212 rushing yards a game last season and all five starters are back from that unit. Senior RB Herron is a gifted runner and receiver out of the backfield. Junior QB Brett Basanez is back for his third year as a starter. He took a step back last year after a promising freshman year, but his numbers were hurt by multiple injuries at the receiver positions. He appears set for a good year. Defensively Northwestern allowed 16 points per game less last year than in 2002 and with 9 starters back should continue to move forward. Their entire defensive line returns in tact and features two projected NFL draft picks. *Check status of starting DE Loren Howard (top pass rusher) who left practice Sunday due to an apparent ankle injury.
It is difficult to measure TCU's 11-2 record last season as they played one of the easiest schedules (97th SOS rating) in the country. Their highest quality win probably coming by 3 points over Louisville in Forth Worth. TCU defensive coordinator David Bailiff left for a head coaching job and the vaunted TCU front seven only returns one starter. All three defensive line starters received all-conference honors last season and all three must be replaced. TCU looks strong on offense but they have a QB controversy heading into the season between senior Brandon Hassell and junior Tye Gunn. Both are expected to see extensive playing time which is almost never a good thing.
Northwestern is 13-6 ATS in September and 6-2 ATS in non-conference road games under Randy Walker. TCU is 1-2 ATS in season openers and 1-3 ATS at home vs non-conference foes under Gary Patterson. Northwestern will be looking to avenge a 48-24 loss two years ago when they were one of the worst teams in any major conference. Needless to say they have improved significantly since then. This is an upperclassmen dominated Wildcat team that has worked extremely hard to reach this point. Look for Northwestern to win the battle of the trenches and compete for an outright win here. Take the points.
EARLY LOOK: Washington State -1 over New Mexico (Friday)
The Cougars have won 10 games in three consecutive seasons and despite heavy losses (only 6 returning starters) they have many quality returnees who played significant roles last season. WSU is the only team ranked in the top 10 at the end of last season who starts this season unranked and they will feed off that for extra motivation. WSU features a physical offensive line that outplayed (4.8 yards per rush, 0 sacks allowed) the vaunted Texas defensive line in last years Holiday Bowl. They have three starters back from that unit and two other returnees with starting experience. Early indications suggest the offensive line will be even better this year. Last years running game primarily consisted of two physical bruising backs, but this year good looking JC transfer Jerome Harrison will add the threat of speed to the running attack. Sophomore QB Josh Swogger has been touted as a future pro since his arrival at WSU. He was forced into action a little before he was ready last year as a redshirt freshman due to injuries to starter Matt Kegal and although he did not put up great numbers, he exhibited great potential. He saw action in 9 games and that experience combined with being "the man" from day one in Spring should pay dividends. The Cougs must replace three good receivers but sophomore Chris Jordan caught 28 balls as a freshman last year, and standout TE Troy Bienemann provides a huge target. Highly recruited freshman WR Michael Bumpus is sure to get some touches.
Defensively, the Cougars only return two starters but they are good ones in all conference LB Will Derting and standout senior CB Karl Paymah. Senior safeties Hamza Abdullah and Jeremy Bohannon as well as sophomore LB Scott Davis each made 20 or more stops last year. While the defense probably will not be as good as last years standout unit, they will still be effective in head coach Doba's system. He has been coaching defense here since 1994 and it remains a priority.
New Mexico is coming off three straight winning seasons and back to back bowl bids but this will be the biggest rebuilding year in Rocky Long's tenure here. The Lobo's must replace a three year starting QB and two standout wide receivers on offense, and six of their top seven tacklers on defense. New Mexico has made great strides in recent years but they are still not exactly a hotbed of talent. It is going to be difficult for them to reload, particularly early in the season as they break in a new QB. Well regarded defensive coordinator Bronco Mendenhall left for BYU prior to last year and his departure may be felt more this year with all of the personnel losses on that side of the ball. New Mexico is badly undersized and inexperienced on the defensive line. Their biggest starter is 6-2, 269 pounds and the overall average weight is just 254. The three defensive line starters they must replace all received 1st or 2nd team all conference honors last year. They also must replace two all-conference LB's who tied for the team lead with 100 tackles each.
Both teams suffer heavy losses from last season but I like Washington State's chances of reloading quickly much better especially with a much more experienced and talented starting QB. Last year WSU was coming off two straight road games at Notre Dame and at Colorado and still beat the Lobos 23-13. They shut New Mexico out in the 2nd half and only allowed 23 rushing yards on 22 attempts. WSU finished with 433-to-257 total yard and 27-to-12 first down edges but settled for three very short FG's or else the game would have been more lopsided. UNM head coach Rocky Long always puts more emphasis on conference games. UNM is just 6-16 straight up vs Division 1 non-conference foes (wins over Utah State twice, NMSU twice, Baylor, and UTEP) and just 8-14 ATS under Long. They have also been slow starters under long going 7-17 ATS in first 5 games of season compared to 26-14 ATS after. WSU surprised a lot of people last year and could do so again. They outclass New Mexico here.
EARLY LOOK: Vanderbilt +5 over South Carolina
This game is of immeasurable importance to the Commodores. They have 7 "winnable" games this year and there has been much talk about the prospects of them reaching a bowl game for the first time in 22 years. Don't laugh now, but they do have a chance. It all starts with this opening game. Vandy has suffered through two years of futility under 3rd year coach Bobby Johnson (2-10 in both of first two seasons). He has fielded some of the youngest SEC teams you could imagine but this year is what they have been working towards. Vandy returns 10 starters on offense and 11 starters on defense from last year! Vandy features an offensive and defensive lineman who were named to the preseason all-SEC team. Starting QB Jay Cutler is a legitimate NFL prospect. He has received rave reviews in fall practices. The receiving group is said to be much improved as well. Running back duo of Kwane Doster and Norval McKenzie remains in tact. The defense features SEC sack leader Jovan Haye, stud LB Moses Osemwegie (126 tackles, 10.5 for loss last year) and 9 other returning starters. For the first time in a while, Vandy has a reasonably competitive SEC team.
South Carolina is coming off back to back 5-7 seasons. Their offense has struggled the last two seasons and even with 9 returning starters back it is hard to foresee major improvement with QB Pinkins still the starter. He is for the most part an inconsistent passer and decision maker. He completed only 50.3% of his passes last year. Head coach Holtz made some coaching changes at the end of last year and has brought in former Cincinnati head coach Rick Minter as his new defensive coordinator. He will be the third coordinator in three years as the Gamecocks miss former DC Charlie Strong who moved on to Florida prior to last season after great success here. They allowed 26.2ppg last season which is the most in the Holtz era. Eight starters are back but two of the losses were key performers LB Garrison (leading tackler), CB Robinson (1st round draft choice), and CB Eiland (6th round draft choice).
Vanderbilt should have confidence heading into this game. They actually outgained the Gamecocks 456-to-379 in last years meeting in Columbia. SC capitalized on two turnovers deep in Vandy territory to take a 21-3 early lead. Vandy fought back but eventually lost 35-24 finishing with a -3 turnover ratio. Quote from Lou Holtz after the game, "I went to Skip when we were up 28-10 and said we can't stop them, you will have to control it on offense." With almost everyone back and a change of venue they must feel they have a good chance of turning the tables.
South Carolina fans are already calling this game an easy win and looking ahead to their huge home opener vs Georgia the following week. Meanwhile, this could not be any bigger of a game for Vandy who has a BYE following this. If South Carolina does not bring their A game, they will lose this game outright. The Gamecocks ended last season with 4 straight losses and are just 3-7 ATS (0-2 ATS on road) in the role of the favorite in past two seasons. They are also 1-4-1 ATS in season openers under Holtz. Even with extremely young teams, the Commodores are 5-2-2 ATS as a home dog under Bobby Johnson. One of those ties was a heartbreaking 7 point OT loss to bowl bound Georgia Tech last season. Take the points.
EARLY LOOK: UCLA -1 over Oklahoma State
Second year head coach Karl Dorrell when asked to compare his team at this same point last year, "night and day difference." Dorrell's offensive scheme had been called too complex by many and the Bruin offense was horrible last year only averaging 19.1ppg while setting a school record with 91 punts. This year the offense should do much better under new offensive coordinator Tom Cable. In four years as head coach at Idaho, Cable's teams finished in the top 10 nationally in total yards twice. Prior to that he served as OC at Colorado. He inherits 9 returning starters to work with. The Bruins have an experienced QB in junior Drew Olson (14 career starts) who is poised for a big season. They have a strong offensive line with 4 returning starters and 2 others with starting experience. They are deep at running back with sophomore Maurice Drew and senior Manual White who is finally 100% healthy. The Bruins were 6-2 before White was sidelined by injury last year. Senior WR Craig Bragg has led the team in catches the last two years and is back. Big playmaker Tab Perry (#2 receiver in 2002, missed last year due to academics) is also back and should make a big impact. Highly touted junior TE Mercedes Lewis gives Olsen three star quality targets.
Considering the struggles of the offense, the UCLA defense was outstanding last year. They limited opponents to 23.5 points and just 318 yards per game while being on the field far more than their share. They should get more rest this year but will have to replace their entire starting defensive line. I give much credit for the success of last years defense to ex-Colorado State defensve coordinator Larry Kerr. The UCLA defense improved greatly under his direction while the Colorado State defense was noticably worse last year in his absence. He still has 5 returning starters to work with and even with some recent injury issues the team should again be solid defensively in their second year of his system.
Due to the departure of starting QB Josh Fields (pro baseball career) and subsequent injury to highly touted true freshman Bobby Reid, redshirt freshman Donovan Woods has inherited the OSU starting QB job by default. Woods is said to be a great athlete but reportedly has struggled at times in fall scrimmages. The bottom line is he will be making his collegiate debut vs a hungry UCLA team on the road at the Rose Bowl. OSU is going to be forced to use a limited playbook and just hope for the best. The UCLA defense will certainly be good enough to stop a one dimensional attack. Overall the Cowboys return 14 solid starters but starting QB, record breaking receiver, and all conference defensive end are among the losses. This team is on the young side with only seven seniors expected to start this game.
The Cowboys are 0-3 straight up and 1-2 ATS in season openers under Les Miles. OSU is 2-7 straight up on the road in last two seasons with only wins coming vs SMU (-24) and Baylor (-27) last year. They are 3-7 ATS in road games in a non-favorite role under Miles. Talk throughout UCLA camp has indicated a much improved new attitude and new level of commitment. Former UCLA head coach Bob Toledo recruited very well (classes ranked #12 in 2001 and #9 in 2002 nationally) in his final years in Westwood and that bodes well for this years team. I expect the Bruins to start the season on a positive note.
Early looks are recommended as 1/2 UNIT plays.
Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward