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RAS NCAA Football - Week 3 - Final Report
RAS NCAA Football - Week 3 - Final Report
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Week 3 recap of plays:
Sunday Night Early Looks (recommended as 1/2 UNIT plays)
Troy State +10.5
Northwestern -2.5
Penn State -1
Notre Dame +13.5
Alabama -10
Official RAS Plays (recommended as 1 UNIT plays)
UCLA/Illinois (OVER 48.5)
Temple +27
Alabama -11.5
Saturday Half-time Plays (recommended as 1/2 UNIT plays)
To be determined
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Official RAS Plays:
UCLA at Illinois (Over 48.5) - 9:00am Pacific
The Bruins offense is in good shape. They rolled up 443 yards against a decent Oklahoma State defense despite having less than 24 minutes of possession and ending the game with a -4 turnover ratio. QB Olsen was only 16-of-36, but he just missed on several big play opportunities. Head coach Dorell even commented that Olsen may have been too conservative and they will ask him to look downfield more. WR Tab Perry, a big playmaker two years ago before being declared ineligible last season, only had one touch. I expect him to make a bigger impact in future games. The Bruins running game is strong with stud Manual White (145 yards on 20 carries) and Maurice Drew. Along with WR Bragg and TE Lewis, this unit has big potential. I look for them to improve from game one to game two under new offensive coordinator Tom Cable.
Defensively, UCLA could not stop the Oklahoma State running game if their life depended on it. OSU rushed for 426 yards and only attempted 8 passes. UCLA may get starting LB Justin London back for this game, but he is still less than 100%. I suspect the run defense will be slightly improved this week but the pass defense got no work at all last week and Illinois will present a much more balanced attack.
Illinois head coach Ron Turner is a former NFL offensive coordinator so his teams usually put up a good amount of points. Last year was a major disappointment as the team averaged just 16.9ppg. The four seasons prior they averaged over 30ppg. This year 9 offensive starters are back including top 3 rushers and top 4 receivers from last season. QB Jon Beutjer is also back for his senior season. Reports indicate that Beutjer has finally grasped the sometimes complicated Ron Turner offense. He went 16-for-18 in the season opener and 9 different receivers caught balls. Throwing to many different receivers is one of the staples of this offense. Big improvement should be expected from this unit, especially against a shaky at best UCLA defense.
After a disappointing season, Illinois fired well regarded defensive coordinator Mike Cassity. Cassity ended up at Louisville where his defense shutout Kentucky in first game. The Illinois defense gave up 33.2ppg last season and has 6 starters back. They have moved some players from offense to defense but there is still only one standout player, LB Matt Sinclair. In the season opener, the Florida A&M QB completed his first 8 pass attempts. This defense is going to be average at best. Many teams will have their hands full with the Bruins offense, and Illinois will be no different. I expect this to be at least in the 50's. Play the over.
Over 48.5 1 UNIT
Temple (+27) at Maryland - 3:00pm Pacific
The Owls covered three straight games to end last season and even put a huge scare in Virginia Tech, taking the Hokies to overtime during the span. This year they have all key components returning and should be an improved team. Their 16 returning starters and 49 returning lettermen both are tops in the Big East. They started the season with a disappointing performance, losing to Virginia 44-14. Firstly, the Cavaliers look great this year. Secondly, Temple fumbled on their first two possessions and gave up a 70+ yard punt return for a TD in the first half. They were down 31-0 before they knew what hit them. QB Walter Washington is a big, fast, powerful runner and can also throw. He came on strong at the end of last season and may be one of the best unknown dual threat QB's in the country. He has a talented wideout in senior Phil Goodman. Temple's spread option attack could give Maryland trouble as it will be their first time seeing it. Defensively, Temple lost three starters to academics and injury but still have 6 active returning starters. LB Rian Wallace was 2nd team Big East a year ago with 148 tackles, 19 behind the line of scrimmage as a sophomore! Temple has had some solid defenses under head coach Bobby Wallace, finishing top 20 nationally in two of the last three years.
This is easily the youngest and most inexperienced Maryland team of the Ralph Friedgen era. Only 9 starters return and there are 18 underclassmen in the 2 deep. They lost 4 all-conference players from last years team. Among the holes to fill is the QB job which has been taken by sophomore Joe Statham. Coaches say he was picked because at this time he is the QB who will make the fewest mistakes. However, Statham fumbled twice in the season opener leading to a safety and a fumble return for a TD. His passing numbers were decent, 12-for-22, but a rebuilding Northern Illinois defense was not a great test. Maryland has some offensive line issues with RG Russell Bonham (LCL sprain) listed as doubtful, LG C.J. Brooks (missed practice, stinger) listed as probable, and LT Stephon Heyer (ankle) listed as probable. All three have missed some practice time this week. Maryland had a real dogfight against Northern Illinois, they only had one more first down than the Huskies, and ended with only 30 more total yards. UNI had the ball at the Maryland 30 yard line when the game ended in a 20-17 final. This is despite UNI QB Phil Horvath making his first career start. He threw two interceptions inside the MD 30 yard line and UNI also fumbled away the 2nd half kickoff leading to a MD touchdown. This was supposed to be a big revenge game for Maryland, but they did not look impressive on either side of the ball.
Temple historically has been best in the away dog role. They are 17-11 ATS as an away dog under Bobby Wallace, and 14-23 ATS in all other situations. They are also 7-3 ATS as an away dog of 20 or more since 2000. Temple handed Virginia 21 points and still only lost by 30, and I feel the Cavs are a much stronger team than Maryland is right now. Temple's spread option offense and awkward 4-2-5 defense are both things the Terps have not seen and may give their young players problems. If Maryland does get a big lead, look for them to make many substitutions as they badly want to develop depth. Maryland also has a big showdown with West Virginia on tap and easily could be looking ahead. Terps went 0-2 ATS as a home favorite of 20 or more last season. I do not want to mislead anyone into thinking that Temple is a good football team but they come into this a bit underrated and Maryland is a bit overrated making this line much too high.
Temple 1 UNIT
Mississippi at Alabama (-11.5) - 5:00pm Pacific
Due to the Mike Price debacle, Alabama second year head coach Mike Schula did not even get a spring practice with his team. The Tide then went on to play one of the most difficult schedules in the country last year. It is no wonder they finished the season 4-9. Six of those nine losses came by one possession (8 points or less) including Oklahoma by 7, double OT vs Arkansas, and 5 OT vs Tennessee. The team returns much intact and should be much improved this year. A new strength and conditioning program has the team faster and stronger than ever. Mike Schula and his staff have now had a full offseason to work in their new systems. There is plenty of talent here. Junior Brodie Croyle is one of my favorite QB's in the country. He has a strong arm, great accuracy, makes good decisions, and has good mobility for his 6-3, 200 size. He completed a workmanlike 16-for-22 in opener vs Utah State. Bama has a fine stable of running backs with both senior Ray Hudson and sophomore Kenneth Darby each rushing for over 100 yards in the opener. The receivers are young but talented. Even with the tough schedule, and a midseason shoulder injury to Croyle, they still averaged 25.5ppg last season and should improve on that this year. The defense returns 8 starters and features one of the best LB units in the SEC. The defense lacks quality depth but that should not be too big of a factor this early in the season. Preseason all-american candidate LB DeMeco Ryans has been nursing an ankle injury but reportedly will be close to or at 100% for this game. The defense seemed very spirited in the opener considering the opponent. As a team Bama commited only 5 penalities, none in the first half.
The post Eli Manning era did not get off to a good start for Ole Miss. They were outgained 392-to-240 by Memphis in their season opener. New Ole Miss QB Michael Spurlock was an erratic 11-of-31 for 182 yards in his starting debut. The Rebels were just 3-of-15 on 3rd down conversions. Even more troubling for the Ole Miss offense was their lack of a running game. The Rebels rushed for just 58 yards on 33 attempts for the game, and just 2 yards on 13 attempts in the second half. Starting right tackle Bobby Harris (ankle) left the game in the 2nd quarter and has not practiced this week which makes a turnaround more unlikely. The Ole Miss defense is breaking in 8 new starters and attempting to replace 7 of their top 10 tacklers from a year ago. They are nowhere near good enough to be considered a strength. Ole Miss only lost 20-13, but the game would not have been as close if not for a first quarter goal line stand that stopped Memphis on downs at the 1. Memphis QB Danny Wimprine (21-of-43) also had an uncharacteristic poor showing missing several open receivers throughout the game.
This will be the second of three straight home night games for the Tide and it is hard to beat a night game atmosphere at Bryant-Denny stadium. Alabama did not have to show much of their packages in win over Utah State, while Ole Miss was all out in their loss to Memphis. Advantage Bama. The Tide will be looking to avenge last years 43-28 loss in Oxford that was aided by a -3 turnover ratio. They will also be motivated to face David Cutcliffe who is now known to be a secret witness against Alabama in recent NCAA investigations. Needless to say, no one in the Bama program was too happy to hear about that. Alabama has outscored Ole Miss 165-41 in last 5 meetings in Tuscalossa, including 87-14 in last two. Give the points.
Alabama 1 UNIT
Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
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Week 3 recap of plays:
Sunday Night Early Looks (recommended as 1/2 UNIT plays)
Troy State +10.5
Northwestern -2.5
Penn State -1
Notre Dame +13.5
Alabama -10
Official RAS Plays (recommended as 1 UNIT plays)
UCLA/Illinois (OVER 48.5)
Temple +27
Alabama -11.5
Saturday Half-time Plays (recommended as 1/2 UNIT plays)
To be determined
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Official RAS Plays:
UCLA at Illinois (Over 48.5) - 9:00am Pacific
The Bruins offense is in good shape. They rolled up 443 yards against a decent Oklahoma State defense despite having less than 24 minutes of possession and ending the game with a -4 turnover ratio. QB Olsen was only 16-of-36, but he just missed on several big play opportunities. Head coach Dorell even commented that Olsen may have been too conservative and they will ask him to look downfield more. WR Tab Perry, a big playmaker two years ago before being declared ineligible last season, only had one touch. I expect him to make a bigger impact in future games. The Bruins running game is strong with stud Manual White (145 yards on 20 carries) and Maurice Drew. Along with WR Bragg and TE Lewis, this unit has big potential. I look for them to improve from game one to game two under new offensive coordinator Tom Cable.
Defensively, UCLA could not stop the Oklahoma State running game if their life depended on it. OSU rushed for 426 yards and only attempted 8 passes. UCLA may get starting LB Justin London back for this game, but he is still less than 100%. I suspect the run defense will be slightly improved this week but the pass defense got no work at all last week and Illinois will present a much more balanced attack.
Illinois head coach Ron Turner is a former NFL offensive coordinator so his teams usually put up a good amount of points. Last year was a major disappointment as the team averaged just 16.9ppg. The four seasons prior they averaged over 30ppg. This year 9 offensive starters are back including top 3 rushers and top 4 receivers from last season. QB Jon Beutjer is also back for his senior season. Reports indicate that Beutjer has finally grasped the sometimes complicated Ron Turner offense. He went 16-for-18 in the season opener and 9 different receivers caught balls. Throwing to many different receivers is one of the staples of this offense. Big improvement should be expected from this unit, especially against a shaky at best UCLA defense.
After a disappointing season, Illinois fired well regarded defensive coordinator Mike Cassity. Cassity ended up at Louisville where his defense shutout Kentucky in first game. The Illinois defense gave up 33.2ppg last season and has 6 starters back. They have moved some players from offense to defense but there is still only one standout player, LB Matt Sinclair. In the season opener, the Florida A&M QB completed his first 8 pass attempts. This defense is going to be average at best. Many teams will have their hands full with the Bruins offense, and Illinois will be no different. I expect this to be at least in the 50's. Play the over.
Over 48.5 1 UNIT
Temple (+27) at Maryland - 3:00pm Pacific
The Owls covered three straight games to end last season and even put a huge scare in Virginia Tech, taking the Hokies to overtime during the span. This year they have all key components returning and should be an improved team. Their 16 returning starters and 49 returning lettermen both are tops in the Big East. They started the season with a disappointing performance, losing to Virginia 44-14. Firstly, the Cavaliers look great this year. Secondly, Temple fumbled on their first two possessions and gave up a 70+ yard punt return for a TD in the first half. They were down 31-0 before they knew what hit them. QB Walter Washington is a big, fast, powerful runner and can also throw. He came on strong at the end of last season and may be one of the best unknown dual threat QB's in the country. He has a talented wideout in senior Phil Goodman. Temple's spread option attack could give Maryland trouble as it will be their first time seeing it. Defensively, Temple lost three starters to academics and injury but still have 6 active returning starters. LB Rian Wallace was 2nd team Big East a year ago with 148 tackles, 19 behind the line of scrimmage as a sophomore! Temple has had some solid defenses under head coach Bobby Wallace, finishing top 20 nationally in two of the last three years.
This is easily the youngest and most inexperienced Maryland team of the Ralph Friedgen era. Only 9 starters return and there are 18 underclassmen in the 2 deep. They lost 4 all-conference players from last years team. Among the holes to fill is the QB job which has been taken by sophomore Joe Statham. Coaches say he was picked because at this time he is the QB who will make the fewest mistakes. However, Statham fumbled twice in the season opener leading to a safety and a fumble return for a TD. His passing numbers were decent, 12-for-22, but a rebuilding Northern Illinois defense was not a great test. Maryland has some offensive line issues with RG Russell Bonham (LCL sprain) listed as doubtful, LG C.J. Brooks (missed practice, stinger) listed as probable, and LT Stephon Heyer (ankle) listed as probable. All three have missed some practice time this week. Maryland had a real dogfight against Northern Illinois, they only had one more first down than the Huskies, and ended with only 30 more total yards. UNI had the ball at the Maryland 30 yard line when the game ended in a 20-17 final. This is despite UNI QB Phil Horvath making his first career start. He threw two interceptions inside the MD 30 yard line and UNI also fumbled away the 2nd half kickoff leading to a MD touchdown. This was supposed to be a big revenge game for Maryland, but they did not look impressive on either side of the ball.
Temple historically has been best in the away dog role. They are 17-11 ATS as an away dog under Bobby Wallace, and 14-23 ATS in all other situations. They are also 7-3 ATS as an away dog of 20 or more since 2000. Temple handed Virginia 21 points and still only lost by 30, and I feel the Cavs are a much stronger team than Maryland is right now. Temple's spread option offense and awkward 4-2-5 defense are both things the Terps have not seen and may give their young players problems. If Maryland does get a big lead, look for them to make many substitutions as they badly want to develop depth. Maryland also has a big showdown with West Virginia on tap and easily could be looking ahead. Terps went 0-2 ATS as a home favorite of 20 or more last season. I do not want to mislead anyone into thinking that Temple is a good football team but they come into this a bit underrated and Maryland is a bit overrated making this line much too high.
Temple 1 UNIT
Mississippi at Alabama (-11.5) - 5:00pm Pacific
Due to the Mike Price debacle, Alabama second year head coach Mike Schula did not even get a spring practice with his team. The Tide then went on to play one of the most difficult schedules in the country last year. It is no wonder they finished the season 4-9. Six of those nine losses came by one possession (8 points or less) including Oklahoma by 7, double OT vs Arkansas, and 5 OT vs Tennessee. The team returns much intact and should be much improved this year. A new strength and conditioning program has the team faster and stronger than ever. Mike Schula and his staff have now had a full offseason to work in their new systems. There is plenty of talent here. Junior Brodie Croyle is one of my favorite QB's in the country. He has a strong arm, great accuracy, makes good decisions, and has good mobility for his 6-3, 200 size. He completed a workmanlike 16-for-22 in opener vs Utah State. Bama has a fine stable of running backs with both senior Ray Hudson and sophomore Kenneth Darby each rushing for over 100 yards in the opener. The receivers are young but talented. Even with the tough schedule, and a midseason shoulder injury to Croyle, they still averaged 25.5ppg last season and should improve on that this year. The defense returns 8 starters and features one of the best LB units in the SEC. The defense lacks quality depth but that should not be too big of a factor this early in the season. Preseason all-american candidate LB DeMeco Ryans has been nursing an ankle injury but reportedly will be close to or at 100% for this game. The defense seemed very spirited in the opener considering the opponent. As a team Bama commited only 5 penalities, none in the first half.
The post Eli Manning era did not get off to a good start for Ole Miss. They were outgained 392-to-240 by Memphis in their season opener. New Ole Miss QB Michael Spurlock was an erratic 11-of-31 for 182 yards in his starting debut. The Rebels were just 3-of-15 on 3rd down conversions. Even more troubling for the Ole Miss offense was their lack of a running game. The Rebels rushed for just 58 yards on 33 attempts for the game, and just 2 yards on 13 attempts in the second half. Starting right tackle Bobby Harris (ankle) left the game in the 2nd quarter and has not practiced this week which makes a turnaround more unlikely. The Ole Miss defense is breaking in 8 new starters and attempting to replace 7 of their top 10 tacklers from a year ago. They are nowhere near good enough to be considered a strength. Ole Miss only lost 20-13, but the game would not have been as close if not for a first quarter goal line stand that stopped Memphis on downs at the 1. Memphis QB Danny Wimprine (21-of-43) also had an uncharacteristic poor showing missing several open receivers throughout the game.
This will be the second of three straight home night games for the Tide and it is hard to beat a night game atmosphere at Bryant-Denny stadium. Alabama did not have to show much of their packages in win over Utah State, while Ole Miss was all out in their loss to Memphis. Advantage Bama. The Tide will be looking to avenge last years 43-28 loss in Oxford that was aided by a -3 turnover ratio. They will also be motivated to face David Cutcliffe who is now known to be a secret witness against Alabama in recent NCAA investigations. Needless to say, no one in the Bama program was too happy to hear about that. Alabama has outscored Ole Miss 165-41 in last 5 meetings in Tuscalossa, including 87-14 in last two. Give the points.
Alabama 1 UNIT
Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
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