Illinois 36-1 vs Louisville 33-4 Final Four

[Carpet]

Illinois opens as a 2.5 chalk (I am locked in) the line has moved to 3

Illinois backers have not had this low of a line since Illinois was listed as a pickem vs Michigan State in February. Illinois beat MSU 81-68 in that game

THE COACH

Coach Pitino of the Cards plans to run one practice this week (I think he is fibbing to the press) as far as his game plan the coach says it will take some time to develop and by Saturday I will have a game plan. I know he speaking the truth.

Pitino went on to say I have watched 6 tapes of Illinois so far and see no weakness, they are a helluva team. When asked how many tapes he plans to watch of Illinois in the next few days he said all of them. I usually watch four tapes of teams before a game if they are available.

A message to the coach...... from Carpet

Illinois runs the motion offense which is almost completly improvisational, even the coaches dont know where the players are going to set up on the floor.

Pitino is a basketball genius in my opinion, he knows the game and you can bet he will have a plan ready for Illinois..

The Match up

Garcia vs Williams Edge IL

Dean vs Brown Edge IL

Obanon vs Head Edge IL

Myles vs Powell Edge Cards

Pacliuos vs Augustine Edge IL

Bench PUSH

DEFENSE

West Virginia dropped a payload of three's on Louisville and forced them to abandon the zone. The 3 guards of Illinois average 42 a game and should have a big day if Louisville cannot shore up the perimter. For those Louisville backers better hope Louisville leaves the zone in Alburquerque and pressure Illinois from the on set.

Illinois defense is the best in the land, they play solid defense and that wins games, they will force the turn overs and restrict the outside game of louisville.

While Louisville's guards are bigger they are not as quick as Illinois on the perimiter

DOWN LOW

Illinois weakness is a GOOD zone defense and POST PLAY,

Illinois has the answer for that in this game, JAMES AUGUSTINE at 6-10 averaging 17 a game in the first 2 games of the tourney, held to just 4 saturday with 6-10 Channing Frey guarding him. Louisville's Palacious at 6-8 or Garcia at 6-7 dont possess the height or girth to slow the Illini big man down.

GUARDS

Louisvilles guards are taller, but Brown and Williams with Luther Head are more complete, and they are quicker off the ball overall and play a better perimter defense than Louisville

FOULS

Garcia of Louisville picks up way to many fouls to be a factor late in this game, and I suspect that the fouls will continue for this player.

Illinois guards are less prone to fouls and will be in the game as a threat at the end of the game.

PREDICTION

Illinois by 5

Good Luck to all

Carpet

Semper Fi

[woodee12]

Thanks for the write-up and insight once again!

Hope they and UNC both win becasue that would be a great National championship game!

GL and I will probably be on them with you!

[Carpet]

Where are the final 4 teams staying ??

Illinois is at the Marriott pavilion across from Busch Stadium.

Michigan State is at the Sheraton Clayton

Louisville is at the Sheraton City Center a block from Busch Stadium

UNC is at the Adam's Mark across the street from the Arch

All nice hotels, edge goes to Michigan State in choice of hotels

Good Luck to all

Carpet

Semper Fi

[Carpet]

Food for thought

Seriously ... you think the Illini have come this far not to walk away with "One Shining Moment" ringing in their ears? By Final Four time every team is talking destiny – but the Illini are walking it.

Semifinals preview package
ESPN.com's comprehensive previews of Saturday's national semifinals:
• Bilas' breakdowns

Why they'll win it all:
• Illinois
• Louisville
• North Carolina
• Michigan State

• ESPN.com experts' picks

Fraschilla's takes:
• Louisville-Illinois
• UNC-Michigan State



They've owned this season – lock, stock and Dee Brown mouthpiece. It's merely been the most impressive single season since Duke went wire-to-wire as No. 1 in 1992 and repeated as national champions.

The stars have aligned: the 100th season of Illinois basketball, the looong undefeated run, the death of Bruce Weber's mom at the Big Ten tournament, the status as the winningest NCAA Tournament program without a title ... who is going to take a charge from that runaway freight train of storylines?

No team has been more consistent, more purposeful and more focused than the Illini. They've lost one lousy game all year, on a 3-pointer with five seconds left by a dude having a career night in a game they otherwise led throughout. They've won 36 times, trampling quality non-conference opponents and a Big Ten that, at least at the top, was a little better than we all believed.

And when all appeared lost last Saturday night against Arizona in Chicago, Illinois showcased its greatest weapon of all: Survival instinct. These guys simply hate to lose.


Why They'll Win It
Start with that most precious of commodities in 2004-05: experience. It's been a year of, by and for the upperclassmen, and every team in the Final Four has plenty of them. But Illinois is the only one that has nothing but juniors and seniors among its top six.



Win two more, Dee, and you will truly be No. 1.
Senior Luther Head is the leading scorer. Junior Dee Brown is the Big Ten MVP. Junior Deron Williams is probably their best player (Rick Pitino has not stopped raving about Williams all week). Junior post men James Augustine and Roger Powell are overshadowed but are highly effective on the glass and playing off the guards – running pick-and-rolls or sliding into open spots for passes off penetration. Senior sixth man Jack Ingram has shown a great knack for hitting big shots.

Befitting an experienced team with great guards, the Illini take care of the ball better than anyone else. They commit just 11.2 turnovers per game, while dishing out 18.6 assists. Powell is the only guy in the top six whose assist-to-turnover ratio is worse than 1:1.

And the chances of an off shooting night are pretty slim. Illinois shoots 48.7 percent from the field, 39.7 percent from 3-point range. The Illini also make 72.8 percent from the foul line. They take a lot of perimeter jumpers – but they also make a lot of them.

Bruce Weber's team also is comfortable playing at different paces. You want to slow it down, junk it up and grind it out? Hey, they spent all season in the Big Ten, refusing to allow more than 65 points in a game over the regular season's final month. You want to rip and run? I think those guards would be happy to challenge anyone to a series of end-to-end foot races.

Provided Augustine and Powell do enough offensively inside to keep defenses honest, it's hard to see Illinois being shut down. And although the Illini have allowed teams to shoot a decent percentage against them, they won't allow you much peace with the ball. Get careless and it's a layup at the other end.



Who Could Stop Them?
Any of the other three teams in the field could theoretically beat the Illini. But it won't be easy.

Louisville will be able to match their strength on the perimeter. Francisco Garcia and Larry O'Bannon could frustrate Illinois' guards with their length. If Cardinals big men Ellis Myles, Juan Diego Palacios and Otis George can avoid foul trouble, they should be able to neutralize Augustine and Powell inside. And Louisville would be a dangerous team to get into a shooting contest with.

The Cards might have as strong a will to win as the Illini – but will they play as smart if the game comes down to a final five minutes of execution at crunch time? The guess is no.

North Carolina would literally be the biggest threat, because it's not hard to imagine Sean May and Marvin Williams giving the Illini a pounding inside. (If Ohio State's Terence Dials could do it, so can they.) The question is whether the Tar Heels want it as badly as the Illini. From all apparent evidence, the answer is no.

Michigan State would be a stretch. The Spartans have to remember the strafing they took in their own gym Feb. 1, which might be hard to overcome. But if Paul Davis continues his tournament run, he could pose a big matchup problem inside.

Maybe Bruce Weber will have a fit of Final Four rookie nerves and make a brainlock move. Maybe Dee Brown will have a bad braid weave and it will affect his shot. Maybe Illinois is doomed by the hoop gods to wear the millstone of Best Program Without A Title.

But don't bet against these guys. They just don't like to lose.


Pat Forde is a senior writer for ESPN.com

[Taxman]

Defense is going to be the key in this game.

I'm U146!

[woodee12]

Final Four ML Parlay:

Going with the Favs:

Illinois pk
UNC pk

Good luck. I hope this hits becasue that will be a great final game!

[Carpet]

Roger Powell a secret weapon indeed layed the lumber down low scoring 20 points 18 in the second half alone..

Louisville seemed to tire after the 10 min mark of the second half...

Luther Head hits 6 treys for 18 in the game...

A masterful first half of caoching for coach pitino as they went into half time 3 down...

Coach Weber (or shall i say the team) said its time to play ball and THE BATTLESHIP POWELL stepped up big

I hope you followed my post in this game, a huge game for me and I hope you to made some cash.....

Good Luck to all

Carpet

Semper Fi

[Taxman]

Great call Carpet!

Had IL-3 + U146

Then had the a parlay w/ the above and U159 & UNC ML.

Good thing 3 missed shots in the last 30 seconds!

Good luck Monday, it's going to be a great game though I am very concern about UNC's speed and their big men, who can dominate ala Arizona!

Hope your back is better and I'm looking forward to your write-up tomorrow.

[woodee12]

I am looking froward to this game tonight!

Thanks for your insight throughout the year and I hope Illinois does it tonight!

I have them in various bets with buddies of mine to win it all so I need a big Orange win tonight!

Good Luck and I am taking the points too!