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St. Louis @ Milwaukee August 10, 2005 2:05 EST. Odds -130 / 8.5u -120
St. Louis at +120
Today’s match up appears to be headed for a pitchers duel with Sheets at home to Suppan. The under is definitely reflecting the duel with the -120 on the 8.5 runs. While this game appears to be going under we feel there is no value in the -120 line as we know from the past week just how vicious the Cardinal’s bats can be ( especially late in the game).
Instead we are going to turn our attention to the game itself and the +120 we can get on the Cardinals. This is one of those rare occasions where we are getting positive return on St. Louis. In 53 road games this year we see only 8 games where we can get positive odds on St. Louis where they are 4-4 (+0.20 Units). Looking into their 4 losses we get Atlanta (Smoltz), Toronto (Halladay), Philadelphia (Myers) and San Diego (Peavey). There are no surprises in those games, all top notch opposing pitchers, all close games, all under except Philly where there were 9 runs on a 8.5 line. In their 4 road wins as the dog we see Atlanta (Hudson), Philadelphia (Myers), San Diego (Peavey) and Milwaukee (Sheets). This time 3 out of the played over except for the Milwaukee game where the Cardinals won 3-0 and it played under 9.
We first look at the pitching as no doubt this should become a duel in all aspects. Starting with Sheets he has been the Ben of last year going 25 IP/17H/4ER/5BB/22SO. His last two games have been complete games just for good measure. Definitely ACE standards. Suppan numbers ring in at 18.2IP/22H/10ER/5BB/7SO which are not spectacular but livable. If we look at pitchers alone we see why the Brewers are at -130 for this afternoon.
Let’s look at a few more things to support our St. Louis bet. Sheets against St. Louis this year is 0-2 giving up 5 runs on 10 hits over 13.1 innings pitched. In 269 career bats against Sheets St. Louis’s lineup has 0.264 BA/0.303 OBP/.435 SLG. On the flip side we have Suppan who is 2-1 against Milwaukee this year giving up 10 runs on 22 hits over 17.2 innings pitched. Suppan was started on the mound last time St. Louis beat Milwaukee early in the year. The Brewers have hit Suppan with a 0.244BA/0.291OBP/0.400SLG. Overall a slight advantage to St. Louis in our opinion, not huge, but slight favour in the Red Birds corner.
The next thing we considered was the teams recent hitting. In the last games we some late game heroics by the Cardinals, specifically the Atlanta walk-off Grand Salami on Sunday but even in Milwaukee the last two games have been decided in the latter stages of the game. Last night 4 out the 5 runs scored came from the 6th inning on. What’s really spooky about the game was the 21 men left on the bases, only 3 were left in scoring but that is a lot of base runners. On Monday, in Milwaukee, St. Louis broke a 4-4 tie with 2 runs in each of the 8th and 9th innings to win 8-4.
Finally looking hitting performance over the last 7 days again we have the Cardinials leading with a 0.282BA/0.358OBP/0.450SLG compared to the Brewers at 0.249BA/0.306/0.371. Besides hitting for more power, better on base percentage another thing that stands out is St. Louis’s base on balls which is 27 over their last 7 games. That indicates patience at the plate, deep pitch counts or deadly bats being intentionally walked to avoid doing damage with men on base. However you add it up with the numbers mentioned above the advantage goes to St. Louis. The only thing in Milwaukee’s corner this afternoon is Sheets. Considering ST. Louis’s success this year against him we see great value at +120. Our selection is St. Louis at +120.
Best of Luck
St. Louis at +120
Today’s match up appears to be headed for a pitchers duel with Sheets at home to Suppan. The under is definitely reflecting the duel with the -120 on the 8.5 runs. While this game appears to be going under we feel there is no value in the -120 line as we know from the past week just how vicious the Cardinal’s bats can be ( especially late in the game).
Instead we are going to turn our attention to the game itself and the +120 we can get on the Cardinals. This is one of those rare occasions where we are getting positive return on St. Louis. In 53 road games this year we see only 8 games where we can get positive odds on St. Louis where they are 4-4 (+0.20 Units). Looking into their 4 losses we get Atlanta (Smoltz), Toronto (Halladay), Philadelphia (Myers) and San Diego (Peavey). There are no surprises in those games, all top notch opposing pitchers, all close games, all under except Philly where there were 9 runs on a 8.5 line. In their 4 road wins as the dog we see Atlanta (Hudson), Philadelphia (Myers), San Diego (Peavey) and Milwaukee (Sheets). This time 3 out of the played over except for the Milwaukee game where the Cardinals won 3-0 and it played under 9.
We first look at the pitching as no doubt this should become a duel in all aspects. Starting with Sheets he has been the Ben of last year going 25 IP/17H/4ER/5BB/22SO. His last two games have been complete games just for good measure. Definitely ACE standards. Suppan numbers ring in at 18.2IP/22H/10ER/5BB/7SO which are not spectacular but livable. If we look at pitchers alone we see why the Brewers are at -130 for this afternoon.
Let’s look at a few more things to support our St. Louis bet. Sheets against St. Louis this year is 0-2 giving up 5 runs on 10 hits over 13.1 innings pitched. In 269 career bats against Sheets St. Louis’s lineup has 0.264 BA/0.303 OBP/.435 SLG. On the flip side we have Suppan who is 2-1 against Milwaukee this year giving up 10 runs on 22 hits over 17.2 innings pitched. Suppan was started on the mound last time St. Louis beat Milwaukee early in the year. The Brewers have hit Suppan with a 0.244BA/0.291OBP/0.400SLG. Overall a slight advantage to St. Louis in our opinion, not huge, but slight favour in the Red Birds corner.
The next thing we considered was the teams recent hitting. In the last games we some late game heroics by the Cardinals, specifically the Atlanta walk-off Grand Salami on Sunday but even in Milwaukee the last two games have been decided in the latter stages of the game. Last night 4 out the 5 runs scored came from the 6th inning on. What’s really spooky about the game was the 21 men left on the bases, only 3 were left in scoring but that is a lot of base runners. On Monday, in Milwaukee, St. Louis broke a 4-4 tie with 2 runs in each of the 8th and 9th innings to win 8-4.
Finally looking hitting performance over the last 7 days again we have the Cardinials leading with a 0.282BA/0.358OBP/0.450SLG compared to the Brewers at 0.249BA/0.306/0.371. Besides hitting for more power, better on base percentage another thing that stands out is St. Louis’s base on balls which is 27 over their last 7 games. That indicates patience at the plate, deep pitch counts or deadly bats being intentionally walked to avoid doing damage with men on base. However you add it up with the numbers mentioned above the advantage goes to St. Louis. The only thing in Milwaukee’s corner this afternoon is Sheets. Considering ST. Louis’s success this year against him we see great value at +120. Our selection is St. Louis at +120.
Best of Luck
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