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SMU vs. TEXAS A&M – September 17th, 12:30 PM EDT
Texas A&M started their season with a loss for the second year in a row falling to Clemson 25-24 by virtue of a last minute Tiger field goal. It took a total of six field goals and a punt return for a touchdown for Clemson to beat the Aggies as their offense was not able to put the ball in the end zone even once. SMU also lost their opener to Baylor and rebounded last week to a surprising victory over intercity rival TCU.
Be careful putting too much stock in SMU’s winning at home last week as the Horned Frogs appeared to still be in shock over their huge upset of Oklahoma and they also lost stud RB Lonta Hobbs to an injury in the first quarter of that game. This one is on the road and SMU has won only once in their last 19 games played away from their home field, allowing an average of 35 points in those games. The Mustangs play a very conservative run oriented offense and have managed a mere 207 yards passing in their first two games which does not bode well in this game. The Aggies were able to keep Clemson’s running attack out of the end zone despite 51 rushing attempts and SMU is no Clemson.
After a bye last week, the Aggies have now had two weeks to think about the loss in their road opener and will welcome the Mustangs to Kyle Field, which has proven over the years to be one of the tougher places to play for a visiting team. Last season at home, A&M averaged 32.5 points per game and lost only two of those games, to Texas and Oklahoma. Aggie QB Reggie McNeal came into this season with lots of eyes on him and he did not disappoint against Clemson, passing for 100 yards and adding 101 more rushing. While the Aggies have their doubters this year, I am not one of them and think that they have the hosses to compete for the Big 12 title. A win over Texas at home to close out the regular season might be all it takes to accomplish that.
I expect A&M to bounce back huge this week this substantially weaker team. After losing to Utah in their opener last year the Aggies reeled off six straight wins by an average score of 33-14, all against teams that are much stronger than the Mustangs. If SMU can lose to Baylor by five points at home, I think A&M will drill them by 40 at Kyle Field.
The Verdict: TEXAS A&M (-28)
TOLEDO vs. TEMPLE – September 17th, 1:00 PM EDT
Get out your calculator because I am getting ready to throw some numbers at you; big and small. The first number is the pointspread in this week’s game which opened at 28 and has been bet up to 30 in some places. I know, that’s a big number.
The next number is 16 which is the number of points that the Temple Owls have scored in their first two games this year. Now you would consider that to be a fairly small number until you take into account that Temple gained only seven yards and managed just two first downs in the first 56 minutes in their game against Wisconsin last week. In both of the Owls’ games combined, their offense has averaged only one yard per play and last week they were held to a total of zero points. Those are some very small numbers.
Let’s look at some big numbers now. How about the 63 and 65 points that Temple has allowed in their first two games or maybe the 62 and 56 points that Toledo has dropped on their opponents so far this year? This kind of scoring is not new to Toledo and QB Bruce Gradowski as they averaged 35.2 points per game last season. Gradowski is the first player in NCAA history to pass for over 70% completions in consecutive years and if it was up to him, he would never let up. Last year the Rockets dropped 45 points on a Temple team that was substantially better than this one.
Temple is a bad football team who hasn't had a winning season since 1990, hasn't played a bowl game since 1979 and is not off to a very good start in 2005. This team is ill prepared to handle the aerial assault that Toledo has in store for them and the embarrassment will only continue on Saturday. There should not even be a line on this game but the fact that there is, makes this one smell like money to me.
The Verdict: TOLEDO (-29)
TROY vs. MISSOURI – September 17th, 2:00 PM EDT
The Trojans defeated Missouri last season on national television which began a downward spiral for the Tigers that they never overcame. Considering that Missouri was upset by a score of 45-35 at home last week at the hand of New Mexico, they will probably not be in the best of moods and should be looking to exact some revenge on this hapless Troy team.
Troy lost 15 starters from last season’s successful 7-4 team and bring back only three starters on offense and four on defense. Among those gone is NFL first round pick, Demarcus Ware. Not only did they lose Ware, but they lost their top passer, runner and receiver and DC Vic Koenning left for Clemson. In their first game this year they beat Cal Poly in an unlined game and then fell to UAB in a miserable 27-7 effort last week. Troy’s only score in that game came on a 73 yard in the third quarter as they were only able to gain a total of 26 yards rushing. The secondary gave up 296 yards on 25 of 38 passing by the Blazers and now they are in the unenviable position of having to travel to Columbia to face Brad Smith & Co.
Tiger QB Smith completed 32 of 55 passes for 248 yards and a touchdown and added 165 yards rushing for three more touchdowns last week so the loss can hardly be blamed on him. Smith now has 7,060 passing yards and 3,248 rushing yards in his career at Missouri and will look to pad those numbers this week against a young team. In their first two games, Missouri has scored 44 and 35 points and I expect them to score early and often this Saturday. The Tigers play host to Texas next week and if they ever needed a confidence builder, it is here. Troy fits that need like a glove.
The Verdict: MISSOURI (-20)
PURDUE vs. ARIZONA – September 17th, 10:00 PM EDT
After suffering their yearly defeat at the hands of Utah (but getting the cover), Arizona bounced back in a 31-12 win over Northern Arizona as they also seem to do every year. That is just about where the comparisons between the Wildcat teams of the past and today’s version come to an end. There is a very clear reason for that and his name is HC Mike Stoops who left his brother’s side at Oklahoma to become the man calling the shots in Tucson beginning with the 2004 season. Stoops’ predecessor, John Mackovic, had effectively run this team into the ground during his tenure but in the first year under Stoops, Zona’s defense vaulted 42 spots in the rankings for scoring defense from the previous season.
One thing that can be said about Purdue with certainty, they will miss Kyle Orton more than anyone on the team is willing to admit. Brandon Kirsch takes his place at quarterback and got off to a solid start connecting on 22 of 34 passes for 252 yards two touchdowns last week in their opener, but that was against lowly Akron. Defense is Stoops’ forte and this team is very familiar with the Utah style offense that Boilermaker HC Joe Tiller installed over the off season. On defense, Purdue has to be considered more than a little suspect after Akron had little trouble moving the ball against them on their home field, accumulating over 400 yards of offense and 27 points.
Stoops’ influence was immediately felt in his first year as Arizona’s defense allowed 11.8 points and 80 yards per game less than they did in 2003. The team still only posted a 3-8 record leaving them in the bottom tier of the Pac 10 but that was a definite improvement over their 4-26 losing run over the previous two years. The Wildcats now have depth on the offensive and defensive lines and shouldn’t get pushed around by Purdue. In the past, teams have simply stacked the line against the Wildcats to control RB Mike Bells and their one dimensional running game. That may well be changing since against NAU, QB Richard Kovalcheck tied a career high with 255 yards passing, Bell added 122 rushing to keep his average at over five yards per carry and the line has allowed only two sacks in two games, both against Utah.
I think Arizona deserves a little more respect from the linesmaker in this one and this number is likely based on the public’s perception of the Wildcats’ reputation as a garbage team. Purdue’s game against a very inexperienced Akron offense last week showed me that although their very favorable schedule gives them a solid shot at the Big 10 conference title this year, they are not the team that many expected them to be. Considering the outcome of the games played last week by several of their Big 10 brethren, they may pull it off anyway but I think that a more diversified offense, an improved defense, home field and the new-found confidence that Arizona is exhibiting equals a solid opportunity for gamblers this week. The line opened at 9 and has since been bet down to 7 indicating that I am not alone in this assessment.
The Verdict: ARIZONA (+7)
Texas A&M started their season with a loss for the second year in a row falling to Clemson 25-24 by virtue of a last minute Tiger field goal. It took a total of six field goals and a punt return for a touchdown for Clemson to beat the Aggies as their offense was not able to put the ball in the end zone even once. SMU also lost their opener to Baylor and rebounded last week to a surprising victory over intercity rival TCU.
Be careful putting too much stock in SMU’s winning at home last week as the Horned Frogs appeared to still be in shock over their huge upset of Oklahoma and they also lost stud RB Lonta Hobbs to an injury in the first quarter of that game. This one is on the road and SMU has won only once in their last 19 games played away from their home field, allowing an average of 35 points in those games. The Mustangs play a very conservative run oriented offense and have managed a mere 207 yards passing in their first two games which does not bode well in this game. The Aggies were able to keep Clemson’s running attack out of the end zone despite 51 rushing attempts and SMU is no Clemson.
After a bye last week, the Aggies have now had two weeks to think about the loss in their road opener and will welcome the Mustangs to Kyle Field, which has proven over the years to be one of the tougher places to play for a visiting team. Last season at home, A&M averaged 32.5 points per game and lost only two of those games, to Texas and Oklahoma. Aggie QB Reggie McNeal came into this season with lots of eyes on him and he did not disappoint against Clemson, passing for 100 yards and adding 101 more rushing. While the Aggies have their doubters this year, I am not one of them and think that they have the hosses to compete for the Big 12 title. A win over Texas at home to close out the regular season might be all it takes to accomplish that.
I expect A&M to bounce back huge this week this substantially weaker team. After losing to Utah in their opener last year the Aggies reeled off six straight wins by an average score of 33-14, all against teams that are much stronger than the Mustangs. If SMU can lose to Baylor by five points at home, I think A&M will drill them by 40 at Kyle Field.
The Verdict: TEXAS A&M (-28)
TOLEDO vs. TEMPLE – September 17th, 1:00 PM EDT
Get out your calculator because I am getting ready to throw some numbers at you; big and small. The first number is the pointspread in this week’s game which opened at 28 and has been bet up to 30 in some places. I know, that’s a big number.
The next number is 16 which is the number of points that the Temple Owls have scored in their first two games this year. Now you would consider that to be a fairly small number until you take into account that Temple gained only seven yards and managed just two first downs in the first 56 minutes in their game against Wisconsin last week. In both of the Owls’ games combined, their offense has averaged only one yard per play and last week they were held to a total of zero points. Those are some very small numbers.
Let’s look at some big numbers now. How about the 63 and 65 points that Temple has allowed in their first two games or maybe the 62 and 56 points that Toledo has dropped on their opponents so far this year? This kind of scoring is not new to Toledo and QB Bruce Gradowski as they averaged 35.2 points per game last season. Gradowski is the first player in NCAA history to pass for over 70% completions in consecutive years and if it was up to him, he would never let up. Last year the Rockets dropped 45 points on a Temple team that was substantially better than this one.
Temple is a bad football team who hasn't had a winning season since 1990, hasn't played a bowl game since 1979 and is not off to a very good start in 2005. This team is ill prepared to handle the aerial assault that Toledo has in store for them and the embarrassment will only continue on Saturday. There should not even be a line on this game but the fact that there is, makes this one smell like money to me.
The Verdict: TOLEDO (-29)
TROY vs. MISSOURI – September 17th, 2:00 PM EDT
The Trojans defeated Missouri last season on national television which began a downward spiral for the Tigers that they never overcame. Considering that Missouri was upset by a score of 45-35 at home last week at the hand of New Mexico, they will probably not be in the best of moods and should be looking to exact some revenge on this hapless Troy team.
Troy lost 15 starters from last season’s successful 7-4 team and bring back only three starters on offense and four on defense. Among those gone is NFL first round pick, Demarcus Ware. Not only did they lose Ware, but they lost their top passer, runner and receiver and DC Vic Koenning left for Clemson. In their first game this year they beat Cal Poly in an unlined game and then fell to UAB in a miserable 27-7 effort last week. Troy’s only score in that game came on a 73 yard in the third quarter as they were only able to gain a total of 26 yards rushing. The secondary gave up 296 yards on 25 of 38 passing by the Blazers and now they are in the unenviable position of having to travel to Columbia to face Brad Smith & Co.
Tiger QB Smith completed 32 of 55 passes for 248 yards and a touchdown and added 165 yards rushing for three more touchdowns last week so the loss can hardly be blamed on him. Smith now has 7,060 passing yards and 3,248 rushing yards in his career at Missouri and will look to pad those numbers this week against a young team. In their first two games, Missouri has scored 44 and 35 points and I expect them to score early and often this Saturday. The Tigers play host to Texas next week and if they ever needed a confidence builder, it is here. Troy fits that need like a glove.
The Verdict: MISSOURI (-20)
PURDUE vs. ARIZONA – September 17th, 10:00 PM EDT
After suffering their yearly defeat at the hands of Utah (but getting the cover), Arizona bounced back in a 31-12 win over Northern Arizona as they also seem to do every year. That is just about where the comparisons between the Wildcat teams of the past and today’s version come to an end. There is a very clear reason for that and his name is HC Mike Stoops who left his brother’s side at Oklahoma to become the man calling the shots in Tucson beginning with the 2004 season. Stoops’ predecessor, John Mackovic, had effectively run this team into the ground during his tenure but in the first year under Stoops, Zona’s defense vaulted 42 spots in the rankings for scoring defense from the previous season.
One thing that can be said about Purdue with certainty, they will miss Kyle Orton more than anyone on the team is willing to admit. Brandon Kirsch takes his place at quarterback and got off to a solid start connecting on 22 of 34 passes for 252 yards two touchdowns last week in their opener, but that was against lowly Akron. Defense is Stoops’ forte and this team is very familiar with the Utah style offense that Boilermaker HC Joe Tiller installed over the off season. On defense, Purdue has to be considered more than a little suspect after Akron had little trouble moving the ball against them on their home field, accumulating over 400 yards of offense and 27 points.
Stoops’ influence was immediately felt in his first year as Arizona’s defense allowed 11.8 points and 80 yards per game less than they did in 2003. The team still only posted a 3-8 record leaving them in the bottom tier of the Pac 10 but that was a definite improvement over their 4-26 losing run over the previous two years. The Wildcats now have depth on the offensive and defensive lines and shouldn’t get pushed around by Purdue. In the past, teams have simply stacked the line against the Wildcats to control RB Mike Bells and their one dimensional running game. That may well be changing since against NAU, QB Richard Kovalcheck tied a career high with 255 yards passing, Bell added 122 rushing to keep his average at over five yards per carry and the line has allowed only two sacks in two games, both against Utah.
I think Arizona deserves a little more respect from the linesmaker in this one and this number is likely based on the public’s perception of the Wildcats’ reputation as a garbage team. Purdue’s game against a very inexperienced Akron offense last week showed me that although their very favorable schedule gives them a solid shot at the Big 10 conference title this year, they are not the team that many expected them to be. Considering the outcome of the games played last week by several of their Big 10 brethren, they may pull it off anyway but I think that a more diversified offense, an improved defense, home field and the new-found confidence that Arizona is exhibiting equals a solid opportunity for gamblers this week. The line opened at 9 and has since been bet down to 7 indicating that I am not alone in this assessment.
The Verdict: ARIZONA (+7)
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