Question For Handicappers.

[the yo yo king]

Due to the way the NFL and NCAA have changed over the past 10-11 years,
I'm wondering which particular sport you guys and girls find EASIEST to han-
dicap. I know that a lot depends on your expertise, but there must be some
kind of consensus of which sport is more predictable. (Maybe Not) I haven't
played until this year for 11 years...........when I quit playing, College Football
was much easier to beat than the NFL. It seems that this is no longer true,
as I see much higher percentages in NFL than in College. I know that many
factors have changed the game, including "speed", but have any of you fig-
ured out how to counter these new trends in the "foots", or in any other
sports, for that matter. I'll play anything that I feel that I can win at, even
if I don't like the sport. Not greedy, just trying to be on top of things.

All responses appreciated.

[Jeff]

This is a great question/topic.

Of course, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. One handicappers specialty may be anothers nightmare.

Personally, I find that the NFL has gotten much more difficult over the last 10 + years while College football remains the same. For me, college football is very beatable. You're still handicapping kids, and the talent level stays the same year after year. The only thing that changes is which teams the talent is on. But you still have your mix of walk ons, players that will never see an NFL practice field, and of course the all stars who go on to the NFL.

What makes the NFL tough, for me, is the parity. This parity did not exist 10-15 years ago. You had some elite, dominant teams, you had some middle of the pack teams and you had some very bad teams. You still have those categories but there seems to be more teams that fit into the middle of the pack group than the other two.

These days a team can go for worst to first in one year. Players change teams frequently. That was never the case years ago as players stuck around for several years.

The talent gap between the best team in the NFL and the worst team in the NFL is very small when compared to that same gap 15 years ago. The best teams the NFL has to offer has weaknesses and holes that the best teams 15 years ago never had.....

Here's how I would rate the sports in order of most beatable to toughest to beat.

1) College Basketball

2) NASCAR

3) College Football

4) MLB

5)NBA

6) NFL

7) NHL


The bottom 5 can change order but the top 2 are pretty consistent. Just ask the bookmakers...........

[the yo yo king]

Reply to Jeff

Thanks so much for your reply, Jeff. I must say that I was really shocked when
you listed NASCAR as #2. But then again, I'm old and senile, so what do I know.
Hoping to get a bunch of responses to the post, and then I will most surely
post the results of the responses, giving us somewhat of an unscientific
consensus.

[widestrides]

Another thing to consider between college and pro football is that games are much tighter in the pros. Coaches just need to hang on to that lead and win by a point or three. College coaches and kids really go for it each Saturday. And coachers are still prone to running it up for the polls even though they say this factor has been decreased with the BCS polls. In some ways, with the close finishes the past two years in the BCS, running it up or at least winning convincingly is still very important in the college game.

I think the home field advantage is more important and influential in the pros. Kids are young and resilient but the travel can get to the old pros over the course of a long season. Travel and not sleeping at home is very significant, but more so to the pros. Of course, so is the support and emotion of the home crowd and its influence on the refs.

[Boone Moone]

Everyone on this thread has their point of view and some very good insight at that. I'll be the first to go along with Jeff in saying that the most beatable sport is College Hoops. The main point I think we're all missing is not how fast these teams have become, not the parity in the NFL, or any such changes in the whole scenario.....The only team were trying to beat are the oddsmakers....THAT'S who we have to handicap......How many times have you jumped on a side that just "couldn't lose". How many times have you narrowed your picks down to three or four plays for the weekend, and end up hittin' the one you put the least on while taking a dive on the one you emptied your wallet on....I've been checkin' this game out for 40 years now (yes, I started when I was 7 years old), and I can honestly say that I didn't begin to make a profit on a regular time basis until about the last five years. Sure, chalk it up to being a lot smarter in regards to money management, but most of it is derived from the old axiom...."Live and learn"...Good Luck...Boone.

[TheBlackCat]

Most people would probably say college. I don't follow college so I definitely wouldn't say college.

However, because of the large number of teams and the wide spread between the best and worst teams -- not to mention some of the insanely large point spreads -- I would think college would be a lot harder.