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Meaningless Monday Night Football (GB/Balt)

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  • #1

    Meaningless Monday Night Football (GB/Balt)

    This game does not mean too much for these teams, we all know that. I already have GB +10.5 to complete a teaser win carrying over from Sunday so I am staying off any extra wager but would take the points with GB if I had to.

    What I am looking at is the total now at 34. I know Baltimore's offense is horrible but they are not playing any Chicago Bear type D in Green Bay either. Green Bay can score with Gado running the ball and Farve still having the ability to make it happen. Throw in the fact that Farve will toss a copuple INT's from lack of protection and forcing it, and I think we have a good looking OVER possibility. I hate OVERS most of the time and especially on MNF, which is a big public game, but I think that is where the value lies tonight.

    Also, when teams get down to the end of the season without much to play for, I think the intensity on the defensive side of the ball decreases greatly which helps the OVER play.

    See a few 33.5's out there and my books have 34 now so I may wait a bit and also see if anyone else has some insight to shed on it.

    Good luck and please post your thoughts.
    Tags: None
  • #2
    That over does look scary though when you consider the following.

    -Baltimore has scored 19 pts or less in 12 of 13 games.
    -The total has been 33 or under in 9 of 13 of Baltimore's games.
    -The total in Baltimore's 6 home games has been 31, 16, 19, 30, 19, 31 and two of those games were against Indianapolis and Cincinnati
    -Baltimore's scoring in those same 6 home games has been 7, 13, 16, 9, 16 and 16 and one of the 16's was in OT.
    -GB has scored 17 pts or less in 8 of 13 games.
    -The total in GB's last 3 games has been 33, 26 and 29 with the 29 including OT.
    -Baltimore held Denver to just 12 pts last week in Denver!

    Not to try and dissuade anyone but that's pretty scary!

    I think you're correct though in that Baltimore's defense will have to score or setup the offense in short field situations to help that total, something that may be entirely possible with Favre's tendency to try and force passes and/or fumble. I'm not sure GB can score much though to help out and if Baltimore's offense doesn't get help they can't score either.
    Makes you wonder why the total was set at 34 though. Almost like they're hoping you take the under, sneaky bastards!
    BTW, I thought Baltimore had some semblance of an offense with Anthony Wright at QB. Why they ever switched back to Boller is beyond me.
    Last edited by dragon1952; 12-19-2005, 12:12 PM.

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    • #3
      Yeah, Did see some of those stats too. But I think this one of those 'sneaky' vegas lines that seems like it will be low scoring but may not be. Just have a feel for the over for some reason but actually have noty played it yet.

      I may look for another good value bet to tease the over with, probably in hoops.

      Thaks for your input. As you can see, I am not too busy at work today!

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      • #4
        Guys,
        Over total is best bet tonight game! Considering this! Points come from Special teams not only offense. Also on Monday night over all are Favorite/Over hit about 34% of the time this season. For Full game I am laying points at home team and Over 33.5 points. Sky is clear temperture is around 30 degree. Couple picks from Brett Favre, punt returning from Samie
        the game might be going over the total.

        Good Luck!
        SI
        "What you [I]See[/I] It's what you [I]Get[/I] "

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        • #5
          Did play a small on the OVER 33.5 for a 1/2 unit and played this teaser too.

          3-team mixed tease , 5 points hoops, 10 points foots:

          OVER 24 Balt/GB
          Indiana Hoosiers +5
          Stanford Cardinal -1

          Don't like teasers all that much but do play and have sucess with them a lot of the time. Good Luck!

          Comment

          • #6
            Originally posted by woodee12
            Did play a small on the OVER 33.5 for a 1/2 unit and played this teaser too.

            3-team mixed tease , 5 points hoops, 10 points foots:

            OVER 24 Balt/GB
            Indiana Hoosiers +5
            Stanford Cardinal -1

            Don't like teasers all that much but do play and have sucess with them a lot of the time. Good Luck!
            Where do you play at?

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            • #7
              Played that play at BoDog. And it would have won as a parlay too without the tease as all won with the un-teased numbers.

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              • #8
                Good call you guys considering the scary looking stats! I bet if you would have known GB would only score 3 you would have reconsidered.

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