NFL Playoffs--Let the Discussion Begin!

[woodee12]

First one that jumps out at me is the Pats at Denver +3. Tough not to like them here. Just not a Bronco believer myself.

Will be back with more thoughts later but until then, what do you guys have?

[Boone Moone]

Hey Woodee, good to be tradin' with you again......We had some fun during the baseball season playoffs....lookin' forward to more......I don't know, I just think that the Pats have been playing over there heads lately, possibly due to the weak competition......I seriously thought this line would open a bit higher simply because of their shitty pass defense, and the main reason........it ain't no fun playing at that altitude this time of year.....About the only worse place to be playing in January is Green Bay, but trust me, Denver is no picnic.....More later.

[Dr Ray]

Gotta lean towards Denver here, like Boone said I think the Pats are playing over their head right now.

[dragon1952]

I like Denver too. I also like Seattle and Pittsburgh getting 9' is ridiculous. The Chicago/Carolina game is a toss-up depending on which Carolina team shows up but I am leaning towards the Bears..

[woodee12]

I am going to wait for the number to go up but I still like the Pats here. Probably will play them in a teaser with the Chicago/Car UNDER.

I hate the big spreads with Indy and Seattle, but just when you think "that number is too big" the favs will cover it like they did all year. Still am up in the air with those.

Probably will take the points somehow, either a tease or just the 3 with the Panthers in Chicago too.

[Clarity]

The patriots are winning now because they have gotten healthy on defense. They finally have found some solidity in the secondary. How can the best quarterback in the league be playing over his head. Expect to see the old Plummer show up and screw it up for the broncos. Don't forget the patriots have the best coach in the league on their side.

[dragon1952]

I don't believe we've seen the 'old' Plummer all year but he's supposed to show up all of a sudden in the playoffs, eh?

Shanahan is no slouch himself either. A few tidbits from the Broncos website.
During Shanahan's tenure,
• The Broncos rank first in the NFL in rushing yards (22,483, 140.5 per game, not counting this year).
• The Broncos rank second in the NFL in total offense (58,469 yards, 365 per game, not counting this year).
• The Broncos home record is 70-18 in regular season play
• Denver is 69-2 when scoring 30 or more points (including 4-0 in postseason).
• Denver is 41-0 at home when scoring 30 or more points (including 2-0 in postseason).

"Since Shanahan took over the Broncos’ coaching reins in 1995, Denver has scored 30 or more points 39 times (twice in postseason) at home and 20 or more points 72 times (four times in playoff action) at home in 80 regular season and four playoff games. Including road games, the Broncos have scored 30 or more points 68 times (including four times in the playoffs) and 20 or more points 128 times (including eight times in the playoffs) in the 160 regular season games and 11 postseason games under him."


Considering Denver's home record, I'd be a little worried if I was N.E. And they sure as shit better not give up at least 30 pts, lol!
Oh and BTW, didn't Denver already beat N.E. at home this year?

[Carpet]

Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers

I love football, bet it every once in a while
and watch every game I can....

The Bears are 2.5 to 3.0 home favorites this
sunday.. (depending on where you look) The Over/Under is 31....

Two solid Defensive teams in a rematch that the
Bears won on turnovers caused by the defense..

The Bears Defense is solid gold, with the Leagues
best Linebacker centering this DEFENSE...

Rex Grossman is starting, he is not that great but
is alot more offensive minded than Kyle Orton is... My biggest
fear here is that in the last game Orton didn't do anything to hurt
the bears, and Grossman could toss at least two INT's this game....

Depending on where he decides to force it, will determine how
many points the pansy's get....My bet is no more than 3 pts off turnovers
THE WAY THE BEARS DEFENSE PLAYS

This will be a great game, the bears defense is really
really fired up for this one..... Chicago's kicking game is solid
and they are at home......

I am going to play the Bears -2.5 and also take
the under at 31 ..... ( and if you can find any
prop bets for Interceptions by grossman, play it
+ 2)

This is my strongest play of the year in NFL games...

Good Luck all

Carpet

Semper Fi

[Boone Moone]

Right on Carpet!....I totally agree.....You see, I think most handicappers and bettors over-analyze these games and underestimate the home-field advantage at this stage of the playoffs.

Sure, you had some road dogs cover last week, but it was the opening round and these mediocre teams were still sorting themselves out.....The home teams THIS weekend EARNED their week off last week, and an extra week off at this time of the year to prepare is priceless.

Hey Dragon, I ought to hire you as my "middle man" to handle the small stuff......Thanks for comin' to my rescue and gettin' deep on why the Pats will get spanked around this weekend....... You outdid yourself with the stats, but that was nice touch.

Finally, a player could do a lot worse than to take all the favorites this week, because history shows how these games go, (Woodee is on the right track by saying how these lines seem inflated, but they actually are not), it's just that the average gambler has a very short memory, and remember only how good Washington and Pittsburgh looked last weekend, but not how GREAT Seattle and Indy looked ALL YEAR........More later.

[dragon1952]

No problem B.M.....my pleasure! BTW, I heard somewhere tonite (SportsCenter maybe) that the home teams in this round of the playoffs have a .817 winning percentage. Not too shabby.
I still like Pittsburgh and the 9' though. Probably get killed too.

[shawnl2000]

Guys,
I got inside infor here (Wyne Newton) Stardust picks this week. Just for New Year Gift!

Seattle lay points
He passed New England vs Denver game

Colts lay points
He passed Carolina vs Chicago game
ImOp. for those games that he passed, I will take both underdogs!

New England plus pionts
Carolina plus pionts

That is my two $Cents---Good Luck!

SL

[dragon1952]

Well, I guess 1-1 ain't too bad

[shawnl2000]

That's right! Lose on juice!
One game that I can't figure out is New England vs Denver; I thought denver would be favored by at least 6 or 7 piont. Why is only 3.5 ????. Something tell me that Vegas try to put New England back into Super Bowl again for third time! Dragon!?

Later

SL

[dragon1952]

It's been -3 at my book from the start. I guess it's hard to give too many pts to a team that's won 3 out of the last 4 SB's and seems to be peaking at the right time. But throw out week 1 on the road against Miami and Denver could very easily have won the other 15. NYG beat them in the last 5 seconds and the K.C. loss was a very close game until the end, both on the road. Not only has Denver already beat N.E. but they beat my Chargers twice also and the Chargers ripped N.E. in their own yard. The Chargers also ripped Indianapolis...another team that pounded N.E. And throw in the 'west of the mississippi' phenonema.... N.E. only traveled west twice and got ripped both times. Also they were only 1-3 against the AFC West with the only win being at home against the lowly Raiders. Throw in the Broncos awesome home record over the years and the mile high altitude and I rest my case.

[woodee12]

Starting to like Chicago now after reading the posts. I think Grossman is the guy that can make a difference. Possibly a break-out game for him??? You know the D will be there. Going to see if I can get it under 3 before I play it.

Still looking at the big faves too. One of them will cover but which one is the question. Leaning Colts right now.