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Titans mysteriously move from favorites to dogs
By Andrew Folkes
Fri, Aug 25, 2006
Is one cornerback’s arrest really worth 3 ½ points on the spread?
That’s how much the line on Saturday’s Atlanta Falcons-Tennessee Titians contest has shifted since Adam ‘Pacman’ Jones was picked up for public intoxication Thursday night, with the Titans moving from 2 ½-point home favorites to +1.
ESPN states that the Titans are benching him for the game and the Tennessean reports the team is thin at that position, which partly explains the adjustment. However, a field goal`s worth of movement still seems excessive for a cornerback.
“Any adjustment at all for a cornerback is an overreaction,” says Cover Expert Steve Merril. “But I think that’s why. The books may have moved it half a point (after they heard of the arrest) and there are bettors out there that just chase these moves.”
The chasing may have created a snowball effect that now has Tennessee sitting in the doghouse, and the fact that it takes a lot less money to move preseason lines lends credibility to this theory.
Titans faders may also believe they’re privy to information that wasn’t factored into the original line.
“Usually when a preseason line moves like this it’s when one team announces it’s going to play its starters longer,” a spokesman for Las Vegas Sports Consultants tells Covers.com. “Someone may have read somewhere that the Falcons are planning on playing their starters a little longer.”
The Falcons have stated they’ll be playing their first-line offense and defense for the entire first half. However, the Titans have the same game plan, so perhaps it’s a matter of depth quality.
“A lot of people like (Falcons quarterback) Matt Schaub as a backup,” suggests Randall the Handle, gaming columnist for the Toronto Sun. “(Michael) Vick is by far the better athlete… but Schaub is probably the better passer of the two.”
Bettors may also like Atlanta’s chances against a Tennessee defense that’s given up 366 yards on the ground this preseason.
“The Titans run defense has looked awfully weak,” notes Randall. “And now they’re up against one of the best (rushing offenses) in the league.”
Whatever the cause of this line move, bettors should keep in mind the pointspread range it’s taking place in.
“Moving from -2 ½ to +1 isn’t nearly as significant as moving from –2 to –3 or –6 to –7. You’re not getting into any key numbers,” says Merril. “Ten percent of games are won by three points whereas only two percent are won by one or two points
By Andrew Folkes
Fri, Aug 25, 2006
Is one cornerback’s arrest really worth 3 ½ points on the spread?
That’s how much the line on Saturday’s Atlanta Falcons-Tennessee Titians contest has shifted since Adam ‘Pacman’ Jones was picked up for public intoxication Thursday night, with the Titans moving from 2 ½-point home favorites to +1.
ESPN states that the Titans are benching him for the game and the Tennessean reports the team is thin at that position, which partly explains the adjustment. However, a field goal`s worth of movement still seems excessive for a cornerback.
“Any adjustment at all for a cornerback is an overreaction,” says Cover Expert Steve Merril. “But I think that’s why. The books may have moved it half a point (after they heard of the arrest) and there are bettors out there that just chase these moves.”
The chasing may have created a snowball effect that now has Tennessee sitting in the doghouse, and the fact that it takes a lot less money to move preseason lines lends credibility to this theory.
Titans faders may also believe they’re privy to information that wasn’t factored into the original line.
“Usually when a preseason line moves like this it’s when one team announces it’s going to play its starters longer,” a spokesman for Las Vegas Sports Consultants tells Covers.com. “Someone may have read somewhere that the Falcons are planning on playing their starters a little longer.”
The Falcons have stated they’ll be playing their first-line offense and defense for the entire first half. However, the Titans have the same game plan, so perhaps it’s a matter of depth quality.
“A lot of people like (Falcons quarterback) Matt Schaub as a backup,” suggests Randall the Handle, gaming columnist for the Toronto Sun. “(Michael) Vick is by far the better athlete… but Schaub is probably the better passer of the two.”
Bettors may also like Atlanta’s chances against a Tennessee defense that’s given up 366 yards on the ground this preseason.
“The Titans run defense has looked awfully weak,” notes Randall. “And now they’re up against one of the best (rushing offenses) in the league.”
Whatever the cause of this line move, bettors should keep in mind the pointspread range it’s taking place in.
“Moving from -2 ½ to +1 isn’t nearly as significant as moving from –2 to –3 or –6 to –7. You’re not getting into any key numbers,” says Merril. “Ten percent of games are won by three points whereas only two percent are won by one or two points
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