NFL "early looks" - - -Let's hear yours!

[Jeff]

Week One 9/7 - 9/11

Denver Broncos @ St Louis Rams - Clearly there will be some value with home dogs the first couple weeks of the NFL season, but were not so sure the Rams will be one of those value teams. In off a 6-10 season and with a new coaching staff in place, they take on a Bronco squad fresh off an embarrassing loss to the Steelers in the AFC championship game. Broncos were 6-2 ats on the road last year. Pick - Broncos -4 (CRIS)

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans Battle of two 4-10 teams from a year ago. Jets start the Mangini era after parting ways with Coach Herm Edwards. The lesser of two evils in this game would be the Jets. Pennington gets his last chance to prove he's an NFL QB and if he fails, the Jets have Patrick Ramsey just in case. Gotta take the points in a game the Jets can win straight up despite the fact that the Jets were just 1-7 against the spread last season on the road. Look for that to improve. Pick - Jets +3

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots - Last year the Bills rolled into New England as a +9.5 dog and hung tight for a 21-16 loss and a cover. It was the 2nd half of the season that caused problems for the Bills as they dropped 6 out of their last 7 games. Head coach Mularkey lost his job and the Bills brought in Dick Jauron as well as Marv Levy to the front office. We think the Bills will continue to struggle this year however we still like them to squeak under the number in this one and keep it just close enough for us to cash. Pick - Bills +9

Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Bucs - The Ravens problem has been on the offensive side of the ball. This years addition of Steve Mcnair at QB figures to pay immediate dividends. Ravens just 2-6 ats on the road last year. The Bucs in off an 11-6 year but also struggled on offense last year which was eventually their downfall in the playoffs, losing to the Skins 17-10. The Bucs won 6 games by a TD or less last year. Pick - Ravens +3

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs - All eyes on the Bengals to see if last year was a fluke. The Chiefs in off a 10-6 year say good bye to Dick Vermeil and hello to Herm Edwards. Chiefs team still intact from a year ago and have one of the best home field advantages in the NFL. Last year they were 7-1 ats at home and have historically been the best team in the NFL on opening day. We won't buck that trend. Pick - Chiefs -3

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions - Seahawks of course are in off a Super Bowl defeat and look to once again be a playoff team. On the other side of the ball we have the hapless Lions, in of another below .500 year at 5-11. So of course, we're taking the Lions in this one! Hey, the Lions brought in former Rams coach Mike Martz to do what he does best. Coordinate the offense. This game opened Seattle -3.5 and is now Seattle -6. We're going to go against this line move and take the added value with the home dog. Pick - Lions +6.5

Atlanta Falcons @ Caolina Panthers - Just about everyone has Carolina pegged for the Super Bowl. With that in mind, we'll go the other way and hope they fall flat in game one. Falcons looking to improve of an 8-8 year. What better place to start than against the whole worlds Super Bowl darlings. Look for Atlanta to obtain a little payback for last years two defeats, the last one being a 44-11 spanking. Pick Falcons +6

Philadelphia Eagles @ Houston Texans - We feel the TO situation was at the root of Phillys problems last year as they turned in a 6-10 year one year after playing in the Super Bowl. Look for the Eagles to be back on top this year without all the distractions. Kicking off the season against the Texans who were 2-14 last year might be just what the Doctor ordered. Pick - Eagles -4

New Orleans Saints @ Cleveland Browns - All eyes will be on New Orleans 2 weeks from now when they return to the Superdome for the first time since Katrina. Until then, no one cares. We look for the Browns to be a 9 win team this year. If they are gonna win 9, then they have to be the Saints of the World. Romeo Crennel will eventually be a winner in Cleveland. Better start this week. Pick - Browns -3 -105

Dallas Cowboys @ Jacksonville Jaguars - Bringing in T.0. will do one of two things for the Cowboys. Either they will be a playoff team and Super Bowl contender, or the team will implode as T.O works his magic and ruins another team. Let's take a chance and say T.O. actually helps out. In that case, the Cowboys will improve off their 9-7 mark from a year ago and what better way to start then by defeating a playoff team from last year, the 12-5 Jags Pick - Cowboys +3 (Mansion)

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers - The Bears had the most dominant defense in the NFL last year. So what did they do in the first round of the NFL draft? Drafted a defensive player of course! (safety). They did bring in Brian Griese to back up Rex Grossman though, and made a few off season moves to improve the offense. We gotta stick with the Bears in this one. Can't back the pack until they prove they are back. Pick - Bears -3.5

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals - If you went strictly by last years records you'd question how a 5-11 team could be favored by -7.5 to kick off the 2006 NFL season. But a closer look and you'll see that the Cardinals actually were in the top half of the league statistically last year, and made some key additions in the off season which should pay dividends. Such as Running back Edgerin James. The 49ers on the other hand, were every bit as bad as their record indicated. Actually worse. They were at the bottom of the NFL statistically and while things can only improve, it will take time. Cards figure to score points in buckets this year. Perhaps the OVER is worth a peek here as well. Pick - Cardinals -7.5

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants - Eli vs Payton. Looking forward to this one. How will the Colts bounce back after last years disappointment? The Colts were a Super Bowl lock. They were never the same after the tragedy with coach Dungy's son. After knocking on the door the last couple of years, will they fall from grace or be right in the mix again? We think the Colts will be there in January once again, but in this spot were going to take baby brother Eli as a home dog in an emotional first game of the season. Pick - Giants +3.5

Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins - Skins still waiting to see if Portis will play. Both these teams in off big improvements from 2004 last season, with the Skins making it to the playoffs and losing to Seattle. This game looks like a field goal game. In which case, we're taking the dog. Pick - Vikings +4.5

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders - The Chargers dumped Drew Brees in favor of Phillip Rivers. Big mistake in our opinion. Rivers hasn't seen much NFL action and figures to take some time to gel. So no better time to take a close look at the home dog here on Monday night. We'll take a shot here and hope the Raiders kick off the Art Shell era 2nd time around with a win. Pick - Raiders +3 -120

[dragon1952]

Of course I'm biased but I like the Chargers -3 at Oakland.
The Raiders seem to handle Tomlinson OK but when you add Gates, McCardell and now watch out for Vincent Jackson! What a load! I think Rivers will do OK and I think the Charger defense will be improved overall (i.e. secondary).
Something else that might come into play.....the Raiders have sucked the last several years but especially against divisional foes including 0-6 both SU and ATS last year! Last year the Chargers beat them by 2 TD's as a 1 pt favorite and later at home by 24 pts as an 11.5 pt favorite! The Chargers have won the last 5 matchups both SU and ATS! Go Chargers!

[Jeff]

A chargers fan huh?

I lived out there briefly 20 years ago......used to to go all the Chargers games at Jack Murphy Statdium.......Dan Fouts and company.......

[dragon1952]

A chargers fan huh?

I lived out there briefly 20 years ago......used to to go all the Chargers games at Jack Murphy Statdium.......Dan Fouts and company.......

Ah, the good ole days. Air Coryell!

[sdsutke]

My leans....

Dal/Jax UNDER 36.5 - One rule of mine is to bet AGAINST Bledsoe on the road against a good Defensive line. The guy hates pressure up the middle. Plus Jax's O isn't exactly high flying.

Rams +3.5 - going against you here Jeff although I might not make the bet since you guys are on the other side. I feel the Rams O will keep them in this one at home. I feel it will be a game winning FG one way or the other.

Jets +3 - I will be buying this up to 3.5 at pinnacle. This was a super bowl contender last year until everything went to sh*t. the # 1 and 2 Qbs get hurt in the same game, as well as their 3rd best defender(Barton). They improve their offensive line and although Cmart is gone I feel that they are simply a better team than the QBless Titans. If Kerry Collins is starting I might double up my units here.

KC/Cin OVER 45 - Two great offensive's, 2 D's that arent very good at defending(but are good at creating TO's, which is good for overs). I feel this is a 31-28 type game.

Jax ML -130 - Read above about going against Bledsoe on the Road against Jax D.

GB/Chi Under 36 - Will there be a TD in this game? maybe by the Bears D. I get the feeling that this will be a very boring game to watch which usually means not many points

These are my leans for now, will have official plays by Friday after seeing what everyone else is leaning towards.

[Boone Moone]

BALTIMORE VS. TAMPA BAY

Like the Ravens in this one........This club was quietly playing their best football when the season ended last year, but it didn't matter much after their early season freefall due to some key injuries....Actually thought Boller was coming into his own as an NFL starter, and then they go out and get Mc Nair.....That was a little puzzling, but still have to give the edge to Billick after his mastering of Gruden in that AFC championship game at the "Black Hole" a few years back when Baltimore went on to win it all.


CHICAGO VS. GREEN BAY

Thought this spread would be much bigger....Maybe the Bears -6.5 or so.....Not wanting to sugar-coat anything, I just plain old figured that the Packers would suck this year......Brent Farve is like that beat-up old boxer that can't call it quits, a shadow of his former self........That being said, he'll probably go out and have a career game.......Anyway, like I said, this game looks too good to be true, and it might just be safer to go ahead and watch one.......Good Luck.

[noname]

Green Bay has looked like crap this pre-season however take a look at Bretts time in Green Bay and he has owned this team.Look at all trends in this game andthe packers are the play or you must leave it alone.Remember when investing the trend is your friend.

[sakras]

I'm with you on your Cleveland and Philly picks.

[Boone Moone]

Pretty interesting opening week......Hey, "sdsutke".....You hit the nail on the head in a couple of those games.....You've got good insight, and I hope you continue throughout the year with your commentary......Ditto to you too Jeff, that Atlanta pick of yours was RIGHT ON !!!!!.........That's what makes BW what it is, you get good handicappers from all different parts of the country, and they might know something where they're at that we don't get out here.....Keep up the good work guys......Share the word.....Onto tonight's games......

MINNESOTA VS. WASHINGTON

This game doesn't interest me at all.........If anything, maybe a small push on the UNDER......that's it.


SAN DIEGO VS. OAKLAND

I'm a hard core Raider fan and have been since the early 70's........That's why I just about NEVER bet on their games.....Until now..........I know it doesn't bode well for a team when you've already got one of your players mouthing off to the press about the head coach before the season even starts, but that's just Randy Moss being Randy Moss......He talkin' about new head coach Art Shell having the players "walkin' on eggshells" with his disciplinary procedures.....Hey, it beats the shit out of Norv Turner's "show-up-at-the-meetings-if-you-want-to-play" attitude, doesn't it?........Randy Moss is just ONE player on a TEAM....He didn't make a difference last year, and he won't make a difference this year.......I just feel that the Raiders have a lot of "payback" in mind for this one, plus it IS Monday Night Football, you're at home, a new coach, and if they are ever going to make a statement, it's gonna be tonight.......Take the 3-points and run.......Add a small play on the $$$ line.....Good Luck.

[Jeff]

I should add an update here....

I really don't have a strong opinion on either game tonight, however my lean to the Vikings aboce has changed to a lean to the Redskins.

Here's a write up from our Monday Night picks page -

Looks like Portis will be back in action for the Skins which of course is key. We're going after the Value in this one as this game opened -6 and has now settled in at -4.5. The Redskins should simply be the better team particularly to start the year. The Vikings lost Culpepper and have a new head coach in former Eagles offenseive coordinator Brad Childress. Don't read too much into the Redskins pre season record. Like a poker game, Gibbs didn't show much in the pre season. But now it counts! This game appears to simply be a case of one team, The Redskins, being much further along with all the pieces in place after getting bounced out of last years playoffs. While the Vikings have a bit of work to do with some major off season changes. Remember, this is a Vikings team that had the 25th ranked offense last year and the 21st ranked defense. While the Skins had the 5th ranked offense and the 6th ranked defense. Vikes obviously have some work to do!

We're not big on trends , particularly in the NFL but we will incorporate them into our write ups for those that like them.

Washington has won 8 of the last 10 games in this series but the Vikings have won two of the last three.

Joe Gibbs is 8-0 against the Vikings

Vikings 9-16 straight up on the road on Monday Nights

Skins 16-10 against the spread at home on Monday Nights

Vikings are 6-15 as non conference road dogs

In the Redskins, we are backing the better team, with the better coach, at home under the Monday Night lights. Look for the Skins to come out on top and get the cover. ....small play

[Boone Moone]

Pitiful, pathetic, embarrassing......Now you know why I don't bet on Raider games......At least I got it out of my system on the 1st game of the season........I knew we were in store for another LONG year when they went out and signed a proven loser in Anthony Brooks.......Oh well, there's always next week.

[sdsutke]

Pretty interesting opening week......Hey, "sdsutke".....You hit the nail on the head in a couple of those games.....You've got good insight, and I hope you continue throughout the year with your commentary......Ditto to you too Jeff, that Atlanta pick of yours was RIGHT ON !!!!!.........That's what makes BW what it is, you get good handicappers from all different parts of the country, and they might know something where they're at that we don't get out here.....Keep up the good work guys......Share the word.....Onto tonight's games......

MINNESOTA VS. WASHINGTON

This game doesn't interest me at all.........If anything, maybe a small push on the UNDER......that's it.


SAN DIEGO VS. OAKLAND

I'm a hard core Raider fan and have been since the early 70's........That's why I just about NEVER bet on their games.....Until now..........I know it doesn't bode well for a team when you've already got one of your players mouthing off to the press about the head coach before the season even starts, but that's just Randy Moss being Randy Moss......He talkin' about new head coach Art Shell having the players "walkin' on eggshells" with his disciplinary procedures.....Hey, it beats the shit out of Norv Turner's "show-up-at-the-meetings-if-you-want-to-play" attitude, doesn't it?........Randy Moss is just ONE player on a TEAM....He didn't make a difference last year, and he won't make a difference this year.......I just feel that the Raiders have a lot of "payback" in mind for this one, plus it IS Monday Night Football, you're at home, a new coach, and if they are ever going to make a statement, it's gonna be tonight.......Take the 3-points and run.......Add a small play on the $$$ line.....Good Luck.

thanks Boone, sorry bout that Oak game. I was in vegas so I couldn't respond with my "official plays" but for what it is worth I ended up taking all of those. Awesome 5-1 start to the season. Also got Minny -4(2nd half) +300 at pinnacle tonight!!! That value was too much to pass up on. Couldnt ask for a better start to my season. Best part was being able to watch every game at the MGM grand on sunday, which allowed me to get a better look at every team. I'll post if I have time each week, definatly not promising as good a week as this 1st one, but I can hope

[sdsutke]

thanks Boone, sorry bout that Oak game. I was in vegas so I couldn't respond with my "official plays" but for what it is worth I ended up taking all of those. Awesome 5-1 start to the season. Also got Minny -4(2nd half) +300 at pinnacle tonight!!! That value was too much to pass up on. Couldnt ask for a better start to my season. Best part was being able to watch every game at the MGM grand on sunday, which allowed me to get a better look at every team. I'll post if I have time each week, definatly not promising as good a week as this 1st one, but I can hope

I forgot to mention that I passed on Jax under and took ATL after reading Jeff's post...I can't edit my post so sorry for the double post. Sunday can't come soon enough