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NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-14-) vs. Ohio
I like NIU right down the line in this game. I thought the Huskies showed how dangerous they'll be offensively at Ohio State, and I look for them to be really dominant moving the ball against teams at their own level or below. Wolfe is a monster weapon. The NIU defense goes from facing Troy Smith to Austin Everson, a night and day switch if ever there was one. Novak is an excellent coach who has excelled at getting his teams back on track off a loss. Solich is not one of my favorites, and the Bobcats were atrocious on the road last season. Aside from winning at Buffalo, they were trashed on the rest of their trips. I have less fear of getting back doored here by the big dog as I might normally have, as I don't see Ohio as much of a passing team against quality opposition. The Bobcats might be an okay MAC entry this season, but they'll have to prove it to me. Right now, I see NIU as owning significant edges almost everywhere in this matchup, and given their track record at home since Novak got the program in gear, I think they roll here.
TULSA (+5-) vs. Byu
BYU was pretty geared up for the game at Arizona, and moved the ball pretty well. But I don't like this team's running game, and the lack of it really impacted their ability to finish off drives against the Wildcats. I don't think the loss is a particularly big deal, and I actually nailed the BYU-Arizona game, one of the few I had a handle on last week. So hopefully, my assessment of this Cougars squad is on the money. On the flip side, I really like this Tulsa team. They have nice balance on offense, and the experienced defense is underrated. Kragthorpe has been excelling in the dog role, as Tulsa ha seven straight covers taking points, indicating that people haven't caught up to this team's level. They sold me in their bowl win last season, and I had Tulsa marked down as a go with team for this season, at least early on. I know this is a very big game on the Tulsa slate, and while I'm sure BYU will be out to even their record, I believe they will be hard pressed to win this straight up. Looks like a very tight game to me, and getting more than a FG puts me on the Tulsa side.
TOLEDO (-10-) vs. Western Michigan
Consider one question answered, and that's the one asking whether the Toledo offense would function as well with Cochran at QB as they did last year with Gradkowski at the helm. Cochran was on fire against a pretty decent Iowa State defense last week, and it looks as though star TE Hopkins is going to be indefensible in some games this season. The extra prep time is a nice plus for the Rockets, and I suspect the Western Michigan pass defense might not be the best. WMU did a good job in shutting down the run last week, but that's not what they need to stop here. And the Broncos may not have the type of ground game necessary to run clock and keep Toledo's offense off the field here. I thought WMU overacheived last season, and expect them to fall back some this year. If I'm right on that count, they're in trouble here, as I believe Toledo is two TD's better than the Broncos, even at this site. I'm laying the points.
Obviously, a rough opening week for me, but I'm expecting a better showing this time around. Let's hope so!
I like NIU right down the line in this game. I thought the Huskies showed how dangerous they'll be offensively at Ohio State, and I look for them to be really dominant moving the ball against teams at their own level or below. Wolfe is a monster weapon. The NIU defense goes from facing Troy Smith to Austin Everson, a night and day switch if ever there was one. Novak is an excellent coach who has excelled at getting his teams back on track off a loss. Solich is not one of my favorites, and the Bobcats were atrocious on the road last season. Aside from winning at Buffalo, they were trashed on the rest of their trips. I have less fear of getting back doored here by the big dog as I might normally have, as I don't see Ohio as much of a passing team against quality opposition. The Bobcats might be an okay MAC entry this season, but they'll have to prove it to me. Right now, I see NIU as owning significant edges almost everywhere in this matchup, and given their track record at home since Novak got the program in gear, I think they roll here.
TULSA (+5-) vs. Byu
BYU was pretty geared up for the game at Arizona, and moved the ball pretty well. But I don't like this team's running game, and the lack of it really impacted their ability to finish off drives against the Wildcats. I don't think the loss is a particularly big deal, and I actually nailed the BYU-Arizona game, one of the few I had a handle on last week. So hopefully, my assessment of this Cougars squad is on the money. On the flip side, I really like this Tulsa team. They have nice balance on offense, and the experienced defense is underrated. Kragthorpe has been excelling in the dog role, as Tulsa ha seven straight covers taking points, indicating that people haven't caught up to this team's level. They sold me in their bowl win last season, and I had Tulsa marked down as a go with team for this season, at least early on. I know this is a very big game on the Tulsa slate, and while I'm sure BYU will be out to even their record, I believe they will be hard pressed to win this straight up. Looks like a very tight game to me, and getting more than a FG puts me on the Tulsa side.
TOLEDO (-10-) vs. Western Michigan
Consider one question answered, and that's the one asking whether the Toledo offense would function as well with Cochran at QB as they did last year with Gradkowski at the helm. Cochran was on fire against a pretty decent Iowa State defense last week, and it looks as though star TE Hopkins is going to be indefensible in some games this season. The extra prep time is a nice plus for the Rockets, and I suspect the Western Michigan pass defense might not be the best. WMU did a good job in shutting down the run last week, but that's not what they need to stop here. And the Broncos may not have the type of ground game necessary to run clock and keep Toledo's offense off the field here. I thought WMU overacheived last season, and expect them to fall back some this year. If I'm right on that count, they're in trouble here, as I believe Toledo is two TD's better than the Broncos, even at this site. I'm laying the points.
Obviously, a rough opening week for me, but I'm expecting a better showing this time around. Let's hope so!
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