Michigan $$$ Pouring in!!!

[Jeff]

FYI - Some group just played Michigan at +6.5 and +6. The number is at -4.5 in some spots now.


Lesson number one for those that are new to sportsbetting or are trying to sharpen their skills. -

You simply cannot play Michigan at this point. The only way to look is Notre Dame -4.5 or pass the game all together.

It was possible to get Michigan +8 at Pinnacle on Sunday Night and then settled in across the board at +7 Monday.

If you want to be a long term winner betting sports, you have to seek value and get the best numbers.

Anyone betting Michigan at the current price should go out and buy as big of a rubber stamp as you can find, and then stamp SQUARE on your forehead.

If you take Mich now -


Regardless of the outcome.











.

[CapperMaster]

Unless your a BIG BLUE die hard...then your a BIG BLUE TOOL

[guru257]

Michigan doesn't have a chance in this game with Chad Henne at quarterback.....Notre Dame will win going away.....let's say at least 14

[widestrides]

Interesting thoughts Jeff. You would actually consider changing your pick from Michigan to Notre Dame due to the line moving from Notre Dame -6.5 to -4.5?

Sure that's two points but not the most significant two points - that is, it didn't cross a 3 or 7.

And it shows that you are a true believer in evaluating and playing value, not just evaluating the teams.

I mean if you really believed Michigan was the better team or at least the better play at +6.5, do you walk away from it at +4.5 even though a 5 or 6 point difference doesn't come in that often? I guess you do, no matter the outcome as you say. I'd pass on a team I liked if the line went away from me on a 3 or a 7 and maybe a 6, but not a 5. And I don't think I've ever gone with the OTHER team due to a line change.

Still, you give us a good lesson in the value of the points.

How many of you out there will change their pick due to a line move? Often?

[Jeff]

It's not necessarily a question of changing the pick.

When I would look at this game now, not having played anything yet, I would only look at Notre Dame.

I can go down the list of college games right now and tell you a whole bunch of sides I wouldn't touch do to line movement, UNLESS they come back my way.

But in looking at the ND game, keep in mind this game opened up -7.

It was then bet UP within the first hour.

At one point Sunday night I could have had +8.5 with a little juice, or +8 at less than -110.

So this move crosses 8, 7.5, 7, 6.5 and 6.

I wouldn't have played this game at +6.5 either.

You can't win laying bad numbers. Over the long haul that is. Sure, you could win this game. Or even have a lucky season. But over the long haul, it would be impossible to win if you made plays like Michigan +4.5 when it was +8 or at the very least solid 7's across the board.

Winning long term betting sports, has more to do with good numbers and value than analyzing the x's and o's.

If you looked at the small minority of sportsbettors that make their living betting on sports, and I'm not talking middling, scalping, etc, I'm talking strictly from betting their opinions, you'd find two common traits in them.....we're already assuming they are good handicappers. (plenty of good handicappers lose because they don't have these two traits)

1)Superior Money management skills using some variation of the Kelly System

2) They ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS get the best numbers on the games they bet. Often times numbers that no one else ever sees.


The margins between winners and losers can be razor thin. The good numbers will put you over the top.

Also keep in mind, there have been many successful players that knew didly squat about the games/teams they bet. They simply play the numbers.

[xbigpappa]

My local book still has not moved the line, its Notre Dame -7, which tells me this line movement is a lot of Bullshyt by someone wanting to middle the game

[Jeff]

Can I have his phone number please

[widestrides]

Jeff says, "Winning long term betting sports, has more to do with good numbers and value than analyzing the x's and o's."
and "You can't win laying bad numbers."

Very good lessons for all.


Thanks!

[Boone Moone]

Way to "teach the children" Jeff......You go boy !!