How much effect does the pointspread have on the win/loss % of the bet.

[TxsAg99]

I was just curious. I've been picking games for quite a few years now and wondered how much my straight up winning average would drop if the pointspread were introduced. I seem to remember reading somewhere that the pointspread changes the outcome of the game only a certain percentage of the time (seemed like it was low). Anyone know a rough estimate off hand?

[dragon1952]

I thought I read once several years ago that about 65% of the time, the team that wins outright covers the spread. I think this was in reference to the NFL, not CFB....I'm not sure.
However, I just did a little 'Googling' and found these statements:

"The spread only comes into play about 84% of the time in the NFL. In other words, the team that wins the game doesn't cover the spread only 16% of the time"

"Another NFL angle to look at sounds very simple, but year after year it makes me a LOT of money. Just pick the winner of the game. 84% of the time the team that wins the game covers the spread."

Of course to win at this method you've got to be pretty darn good at picking the underdogs!

[Jeff]

Those percentages change over the years but it's always been high. I remember running acorss that stat 20 years ago in a book.


I incorporate that into my own handicapping. I don't play big favorites to begin with. Mostly dogs or very short priced favorites.

The pointspread can only beat you if you back favs.

With dogs, it (pointspread) can only help you, and with short priced favs you'll win more than you'll lose if your successfully handicapping the straight up winner of the games.

Try and make the spread come into play as little as possible.

Betting games because you think a team can "hang" and stay within a number is also a mistake in my opinion.

All NFL bets should be made because you think the team can win the game straight up.

[Ice Cream Man]

"All NFL bets should be made because you think the team can win the game straight up."[/QUOTE]

Jeff, I totally agree with that statement....

[Russ B]

Check the history it's still a consistent stat in the NFL. The team that wins covers 70% of the time. It's been like this for awhile.

[TxsAg99]

Thanks guys, just the kind of answer I was looking for.

[Clarity]

70% in the nfl is most likely due to the lower point spreads with more parody in the league. I would be interested to see the percentages of 7+ point lines.

[TheBlackCat]

Yes, its 70%. So dogs win about 30% by outright winning, 20% by points.

As for the 7 point line question, its not a lot different. Even the worst teams tend to win 1 out of 5 times, so it's probably more of a 25%/25% split for all lines above 7 (educated guess).

I've seen many a giant dog win the game outright. Its still the easiest way to cover the spread: win the game! I do disagree on the "just pick the winners" philosophy. Think about it, if you just pick the winner on huge double-digit spreads, why would you ever take the dog? I hate listening to picks on the radio because they refuse to talk pointspread and they never take the underdog unless the line is under 4 points. What's the point???? Wow you got 70% straightup! Way to go....