Dragon1952 - CFB Friday night

[dragon1952]

CFB to date:
11-5 Sides
3-2 Totals

Friday night - OK...what the heck.

Toledo -4.5 vs Kansas - We have a great home team against a lousy road team. Toledo is probably undervalued due to their 0-2 start but keep in mind those were away games, and one of them was a 3OT loss against what is most likely a better team (Iowa St) than Kansas. Kansas is probably overvalued because of it's 2-0 start, which were both home games against pathetic competition. Kansas road record the past few years is somewhere around 2-12 I believe (not including their bowl game win vs Houston). Toledo is something like 15-1 at home over the same period. I guess you could argue that Kansas' away games were against pretty stiff competition but I would expect Toledo to come out really angry tonite in front of the home crowd in a venue they rarely lose in.

Toledo/Kansas UN 50 - I am not saying parlay here. These are 2 separate bets. These offenses haven't been real effective this year so regardless of the outcome of the game I'm hoping for an under 50 total. That's my story and I'm sticking to it

[dragon1952]

Oh well, the under didn't quite play out like I anticipated. That's what happens when there are so many turnovers in a game. It just gives too many easy scoring opportunities. That's why I didn't parlay it. One of them always screws you.
But Toledo did end up covering the spread. No matter how you look at this, and I'm sure if you took Kansas you feel ripped off, but this is what happens when you've got a team with a history of losing on the road against one with a history of winning at home. What did the announcers say at the end of the game? This makes Toledo 35-2 at home since whenever they started counting? And now Kansas is 2-13 in the last 15. The smart money started coming in at the end and drove it up from -4 to at least -5.5 which didn't matter as Toledo won by 6. Tough loss for the Jayhawks but you just can't turn the ball over 5 times, especially on the road, and expect to win (or cover) many games.

CFB record update:
12-5 sides
3-3 totals

Good luck tomorrow!