Dragon1952 - CFB Week 3 .....early plays

[dragon1952]

College
Sides 16-9-1
Totals 4-2

Michigan -14 vs Wisconsin
Clemson -16.5 vs North Carolina
UCLA -3 vs Washington
Western Michigan -28 vs Temple
USC -21 at Arizona
West Virginia -21 at East Carolina
Michigan State +3.5 vs Notre Dame

Analysis to come.

[Anonymous]

Michigan -14 vs Wisconsin

Not to go busting your chops but... both Michigan and Wisky are run based offenses. PJ Hill / Mike Hart will each get between 25 and 30 carries in this game which means short game. Wisky's defense is just as good as Michigan, and Stocco and Henne are even. These two teams basically come into this game with michigan having homefield advantage (-3) in my mind (rankings aside). ln the last 8 years, Michigan has beaten Wisky by more then 10 points ONCE, which was the '97 NC team, which was a pass based offense a la Desmond Howard and Co. lts fine if you want to lay the points, but l just don't think that is very wise. lm probably gonna sit back and wait for everyone to gobble up Michigan b/c of their win over an Overrated Notre Dame, and maybe get them +15 or 16. This game smacks of defensive, snot knocking run game, with Michigan coming out flat after last weekend. But thats just my opinion... grain of salt. Mich- 17 Wisky - 10

[dragon1952]

That's OK....you can bust my chops. It happened last week too in regards to my Clemson pick over Florida State

I started to write up an analysis last night but it was too late. Let's see....

Michigan -14 vs Wisconsin Michigan has had 3 games and has given up 42, 16 and 4 yds rushing in those games. Granted Wisconsin might be more run oriented than those teams but I think Stocco's going to have to put the ball in the air a lot. When he has, so far this year, he pretty much sucks. Against Bowling Green he was 9 for 15 with an INT for 124 yds, against W. Illinois he got 227 yds but was only 15 for 28 with an INT and against San Diego State he was only 12 for 23 for 85 yds. That's about 54% completions, and that's against lousy competition. He's got a total of 3 passing TD's this year. I watched the San Diego State game and he stunk. There were also comments during the game about how he hadn't been playing well this season. Let's see....do I need to pick a score too? OK, how about Mich 31-10

[dragon1952]

Clemson -16.5 vs North Carolina - North Carolina lost by 5 to Rutgers and got blown out at home by 25 vs Virginia Tech, with their only TD in that game coming in garbage time with about a minute left in the game. Then, although they do squeak out the W, they give up 521 yards of total offense, 30 first downs and 42 pts to Furman! Yow-sah!
UCLA -3 vs Washington - Ought to be similar to the Oklahoma game for Washington where they lost by 17. UCLA QB Ben Olson is on fire. In 2 games so far he is 38 of 52 for 442 yds and 5 TD's with only 1 INT. That's a 73% completion percentage and a 172 QB rating. Not bad. They've also busted out 384 yds rushing for a total of 826 yds offense in 2 games.
Western Michigan -28 vs Temple - Temple just blows....period. The last 2 games have been 62-0 blowouts. They've got a total of 3 pts in 3 games. They did play Western Michigan tough last year but this year should be different as W. Mich has a lot of starters back and has improved whereas Temple has regressed. Also, this game will be in the friendly confines of the Waldo this year.
USC -21 at Arizona - I have no idea why Arizona is getting as much respect as they are. They looked pretty shitty in that BYU game, although they did pull the W out of their asses. Then they were only 15 pt underdogs at LSU and they got obliterated 45-3. Stephen F Austin played Arizona tough for 3 Q's last week before Arizona finally got their heads out of their asses. USC, on the other hand, has had a lack of respect in my opinion. What were they...only 8 pt favorites at Arkansas and then only 17 at home vs the bully Cornholers (although that one was a squeaker ATS). The last 3 years Arizona has lost to USC by 45-0, 49-9 and 42-21. I think they get waxed again.
West Virginia -21 at East Carolina - Wow...what can you say about the Mountaineers! 1046 yds rushing in 3 games! Outscoring their opponents 139-37! Seven takeaways already vs only 1 turnover! In the past 3 yrs West Virginia has beaten East Carolina 48-7 and 56-23 before only squeaking by by a 20-15 score LY. They had 4 turnovers in that game and only had 127 yds rushing. Ought to be back to normal this year with a wide margin of victory for the Mountaineers..
Michigan State +3.5 vs Notre Dame - I took Pittsburgh at home last week vs Michigan State. What a mistake. This team is good! Pitt is not a bad defensive team and Michigan St. just ripped them. They are real balanced on offense, with 774 yds rushing and 745 yds passing through the first 3 games, and ought to be able to, maybe not win, but certainly hang with N.D. who are coming off 3 emotional games in a row.

[Clarity]

the notre dame/michigan st game looks like a shootout, lots of passing with just average defenses. All your plays look solid.

[dragon1952]

Thank you sir....appreciate your input!

Adding......

Houston Cougars -1 vs Oklahoma St. - Oklahoma St has gone 3-0 vs some pretty bad competition. A step up here and on the road against a team who can really put up some numbers through the air and can run pretty good too.
Northwestern +7 at Nevada - Northwestern really pissed me off last week. I can't believe they can't hang with a WAC team though for crying out loud.
UTEP -9.5 at New Mexico - UTEP has the potential to make this a real blowout.
Louisville -14 at Kansas State - After careful consideration. I think Cantwell gets plenty of time in there during garbage time to be ready for this, especially after Miami last week. Kansas State annually beats up on weaklings (kinda like the Cornholers) and then pales in comparison against the cream of the crop. Even Fresno State could beat them (again) in Manhattan.
Florida Int. +18.5 at Maryland - Wow....there's a pick for you But seriously, Maryland has two wins so far against similar competition, by 13 over William and Mary (now there's a real powerhouse for you) and by 14 over Middle Tennessee and they really didn't put up that great of numbers against either one. Maryland had a total of only 5 wins last year and the only team they beat by more than 12 was Temple. Fla. Int. is 0-3 but has only lost by 1, 1 and 5.

sports.com lines as of this posting

[dragon1952]

That Northwestern game is tonite evidently....duh! I forgot to mention that when I made the pick yesterday.....Northwestern +7

[dragon1952]

Adding...

Virginia Tech/Cincinnati OV 43.5
USC/Arizona OV 48.5

[dragon1952]

Recap -

Michigan -14 vs Wisconsin - PUSH
Clemson -16.5 vs North Carolina - WON
UCLA -3 vs Washington - LOST
Western Michigan -28 vs Temple - WON
USC -21 at Arizona - LOST
West Virginia -21 at East Carolina - LOST
Michigan State +3.5 vs Notre Dame - WON
Houston Cougars -1 vs Oklahoma St. - WON
Northwestern +7 at Nevada - LOST
UTEP -9.5 at New Mexico - LOST
Louisville -14 at Kansas State - WON
Florida Int. +18.5 at Maryland -WON

Sides 6-5-1

Virginia Tech/Cincinnati OV 43.5 - LOST
USC/Arizona OV 48.5 - LOST

Totals 0-2

Well the only ones that never had a chance were the UTEP pick and the USC/Arizona OV. Northwestern (Friday), UCLA and Michigan had the covers late in the game before blowing it, with Michigan preserving the push at least. Those of you that got it at 13.5 squeaked out the W. West Virginia and USC came up short by 4 and the V.T./Cin OV was short by 1.5. Could have been a lot better with a bounce here or there.

CFB to date:
Sides 22-14-2
Totals 4-4

[Rick]

Wrong post dude, brag in your own post.. Not this one...LOL

[dragon1952]

Wrong post dude, brag in your own post.. Not this one...LOL

Yeah...what's up with that anyway?

I HOPE SOME OF YOU PROFITED FROM MY PLAYS?

Dude....you really think people are playing these? Shit...that's a scary thought. I better quit before somebody shoots me