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9/23
KEY RELEASES NFL + COLLEGE COMBINED 19-7 ON THE YEAR
4* Wisconsin +14 over Michigan - We like the added value we are getting here as a result of Michigans big win over Notre Dame last week. Let's face it, had that win not been so impressive this line would not be anywhere near two touchdowns. This is a Wisconsin team that returns 8 starters on defense from a team that went 10-3 last year and beat Michigan 23-20. Wisconsin is, like Michigan, 3-0. Of course the problem is that Wisconsin hasn't played anyone yet with wins over Bowling Green, Western Illinois and San Diego State. But then hey, they same can be said about Michigan. Aside from Notre Dame, they have wins over Vanderbilt and Central Michigan and they were only up on Vandy 13-7 at the half. We simply don't see a 17 point difference between last years editions of these two teams and this years. If you look at the last 9 games played between these two schools, and gave Wisconsin 14 points in each of those games, they would have covered 8 of 9. Wisky is 7-2 against the spread vs Michigan and 11-4 against the spread as an away dog overall while Michigan has been a lousy team against the number at home. +14 is too many to pass up here.
4* Penn State +17 over Ohio State - You have to love Joe Paterno the week leading up to a big game with quotes like "You got a good prayer to St. Jude for hopeless causes?” He's a master of psychological warfare. This game fits the same criteria as our Wisconsin selection. This is a Penn State team that was 11-1 last year and beat Ohio State 17-10. Yes they lost some starters on both sides of the ball but Ohio State did as well. Ohio State lost 9 defensive players! Yet, we're asked to believe that there is a 24 point difference between these two schools from a year ago??? This number is high simply because Ohio State went into Texas and won a huge game while Penn State was spanked by Notre Dame. But a closer look at Penn States loss to Notre Dame will tell you that it was mistakes snowballing that cost Penn State against ND. If they played again this week it would probably be tight. It's not as if Penn State was dominated by ND, despite what the scoreboard showed. They were able to move the ball well and into ND territory only to flub field goal attempts or turn the ball over. The had 25 first downs against ND! If there is one thing you can count on from a Joe Paterno team it's the discipline to correct mistakes. I can assure you that Penn State offensive players have had to sleep and walk around with footballs in their hands since that game. They may lose a game on the field due to talent but doubt they will give another one away by playing sloppy as they did in the ND game. Granted, Penn State has played two cupcakes and Notre Dame. But the Buckeyes have also played played two cupcakes and Texas. This number is a direct reflection of the Penn State Notre Dame game. Had that game gone differently, Ohio State would be a touchdown favorite here at the most. Even in down years, Penn State has played Ohio State tough. In 2003 they were a 3-9 team yet lost to an 11-2 Ohio State team by just one. If you gave Penn State 17 points the last 13 times they played Ohio State they would have gone 9-4. Also note Penn State has given up more than 30 points just once in the last 3 years. If they can keep the score low that obviously increases our chances here getting a boatload. No disrespect to a fine Ohio State team but this is still Joe Pa and Penn State. Expect Penn State to play mistake free football and make this one a competitive game. We want +17 on this one. Currently the best price is +17 -115.
3* Purdue +3 over Minnesota - Another game which presents us with some nice value as Purdue opened up a -1.5 point favorite and is now +3. We think the oddsmakers had it right. Last year when these two hooked up it was one of the most exciting games of the season. We had Purdue in that one and lost it in overtime. Minnesota has looked great against a couple of cupcakes and then got spanked by Cal, while Purdue has looked less than impressive against weak opposition. Both of these squads are mediocre football teams this year. Both return a good core of players from a year ago yet both lost key talent as well. Purdue points to the Minnesota game of a year ago as the turning point of their disappointing season. From that game on, it was all down hill for the Boilermakers and that's a theme they have been playing up all week. They'd love nothing more than to avenge a loss that they should have won last year and with the talent level the same on each team the +3 is looking attractive. Purdue has had Minnys number over the years going 9-3 straight up and against the number including a 6-0 mark at home. Revenge!
3* Stanford +10 over Washington State - If there's a common theme with this weeks selections it's that too much emphasis is being put on the most recent results and not enough on the actual talent on the field. Here's a game between two teams that were below .500 a year ago. Stanford was 5-6 and Washington State was 4-7. Stanford returns their entire offense from a year ago while Wash St returns 6 offense and 8 on defense. So the teams are largely intact from a year ago. A year ago, Stanford traveled to Washington State and came away with a 24-21 win. Yet now, a year later, they are 10 point home dogs? Ok, Stanford is 0-3 and has looked terrible. But Washington State was spanked by Auburn and barely squeaked by Baylor. They have a 56-10 win over Idaho. Is that where this 10 point favorite role comes from?? Stanford is 10-2 against the number vs Washington State and 8-4 straight up their last 12 tries. They are also an 0-3 team that is desperate for a win and this looks to be a game that's within reach. Take!
3* Notre Dame -3 over Michigan State - Those of you who have followed us over the years know that normally, in this spot, Michigan State would be a signature play for us. Here's a team that rarely gets the spotlight with a chance to play in prime time on National Television against a team that's always in the spotlight, Notre Dame. Not only that, but they get to do this at home as an underdog. Michigan State has all the ingredients of a high rated key release here on these pages, and apparently some others agree as this game was bet down from +4 to +3 early. Yet, we are siding with the Irish in this one? Well, we gotta stick with the theme of the week and not judge a team by it's most recent results. We said going in that we didn't buy into all the talk of Notre Dame as a title contender this year. For them to do that, they would have had to make major improvements on the defensive side of the ball. Improvements that can't be made in one year. However make no mistake about it, this Notre Dame team has talent. All the key players are in place from a year ago (7 on offense and 9 on defense). A year ago they were 9-3 and almost knocked off USC. This offense can put points on the board and at some point this year, they will gel. Michigan State is 3-0, but it's a 3-0 to the likes of Idaho, Eastern Michigan and Pitt. Michigan State has had Notre Dames number over the years, going 9-3 against the number and 8-4 straight up but we feel Notre Dame will get some revenge in this one for last years overtime loss. Always tough to get the number to cooperate when backing Notre Dame as there is always tons of Irish money no matter what the circumstances. We obviously prefer to lay -2.5 or less however it remains to be seen if we'll be able to get that.
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