Early NFL line moves from Pinnacle

[Jeff]

Week Four NFL Line Moves from pinnaclesports.com
World’s Largest Sportsbook Details Who The Pros Are Betting This Weekend

WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (September 26, 2006)—Every Sunday, PinnacleSports.com is one of the first sportsbooks in the world to post betting lines on the following week’s NFL games, giving players the opportunity to bet nearly a full week in advance of kickoff. Expert handicappers and, sharp sports bettors regularly place wagers on these early lines before the oddsmakers have a chance to ‘sharpen’ the point spreads. Early betting by these professionals and skilled handicappers gives unique insight into how the games will play out each week and now PinnacleSports.com is letting you know which teams the sharp bettors are backing this weekend.



The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com opened betting on every game in week 4 of the NFL regular season before week three’s games had even finished. Pinnacle Sports has already received tremendous volume on this weekend’s games and the oddsmakers have adjusted the point spreads accordingly as early bettors took positions on several match-ups, including:



Indianapolis @ New York Jets

The Colts opened as 7.5-point favorites at PinnacleSports.com, and after early sharp action, the line now stands at Indy -9. The sportsbook has received nearly two times as many bets on the Colts versus the host Jets.



Dallas @ Tennessee

There’s been a lot of early action on this game with nearly three times as many bets on Dallas coming off the bye week. The point spread opened at Cowboys -7 (-104), but early betting has moved the line to Dallas -9.5 (-106). If this trend continues throughout the week, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Dallas as double-digit road favorites.



Cleveland @ Oakland

In a battle of winless teams, early bettors have jumped on the Browns bandwagon following their near upset of Baltimore. Pinnacle Sportsbook opened Cleveland as a 1-point road favorites, but a flurry of sharp action has moved the line to Browns -3 (+109).



Jacksonville @ Washington

In a week full of road favorites, Pinnaclesports.com opened the line with Jacksonville listed at -2.5 (-104). Nearly four times as many bets have been placed on the Jaguars to date, but the line has only moved seven cents to -2.5 (-111) mainly because there’s opposition from sharp bettors who like Washington as home underdogs.



New England @ Cincinnati

This game opened with the Bengals at -4 (-113) and early sharp action has moved the line to Cincinnati -6 (+102). After the Patriots home loss to Denver Sunday night, Pinnacle Sports Book has seen bets on Cincinnati come in at a rate of 4 ½ to 1 as on those on the Patriots.



To further assist your NFL handicapping skills, visit Pinnacle’s pro football betting portal at http://football.pinnaclesports.com to find detailed match-up information on every NFL game including all the latest stats, betting trends, injuries and weather reports necessary to make informed plays. Find a smarter way to bet at www.pinnaclesports.com.



About PinnacleSports.com

PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.

[widestrides]

So, are there any trends worth playing based on these early moves by "smart money?"

What would you get if you went WITH these moves, even if it meant getting the new, adjusted number? Or better if the public brought the line back to the original number.

Or better to fade or go AGAINST these moves and take the additional, adjusted points?

What about late line moves? Are these late moves by smart money a good % play for or against?

[Jeff]

Widestrides -

Following line moves is trucky business. The early moves within the first half hour or less of being posted can be a good indication of sharp play.

But generally, you'll never know the true orgin of the moves.

There is alot of line manipulation that goes on in all sports.

Fake plays are made and or fake "orders" are put out in order to set up the board for the real plays which may come as late as 2 minutes before kick off.

So in general, it's best to do your own work and concentrate on getting the best numbers on all your plays.







.

[Scituate01]

Its even harder

To know which is the one they are gonna circle as the fixed one each week.

I think it is gonna be Dallas this week cause of the TO thing.

Scit

[widestrides]

Wow, that's enlightening. Manipulation goes on in sports betting also. I thought that only went on in the stock market and futures market. I've been telling my investor friends that I thought sports gambling was a heck of a lot more fair and honorable than the stock or commodities markets. I thought that except for the occasional point shaving game, you could get a much more fair deal on a game than in the markets. I think I still believe that, but now realize how some line manipulation can and does go on. Head fakes in the market AND in sports betting.

[jpehl]

For some reason im trying to convince myself that the colts game is not going to be rigged. I dont know just have a strange feeling about this one. But i dont think games are fixed. If they are i wish someone would calll me.
jpehl

[Jeff]

WIDESTRIDES - Keep in mind, there is nothing dishonest about it.

They can do this because of the huge amounts of money they are flooding the marketplace with.

Also keep this in mind.

Maybe they win at a 58% clip or so long term. Great for them, as they do a large volume business. However, that's still 42% losers. Point being, they create some great value for other handicappers.

They may pound a game at -6 in college football. They may take all the -6's and all the -6.5's . The game takes on a life of it's own after that and goes to -8. It's no good at -8 at this point, but now there is some great value at +8.

Especially the higher spread games that move 6+ points. The sharps that lay the first number win and often times the sharps that come in on the other side when the move is done also win (game falls in the middle)

[widestrides]

Like in stocks or commodities, the shorts can drive the prices down, and you can get hurt when they do that. But it also creates a fantastic buying opportunity because the same guys who drove it down will turn around and run it back up. Sounds like their is action something like this going on in sports betting also. We just have to learn how to survive it AND take advantage of it.

It may not be dishonest or illegal manipulation in either of these arenas as you say, but it isn't exactly philanthropy or social work! These guys want to pick your pocket! Sharks and sharps in the water everywhere! Don't wade in without reading Bettorsworld! And don't quit your day jobs guys.