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Dragon1952 - CFB Week 7

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  • Dragon1952 - CFB Week 7

    CFB to date:
    Sides 30-23-3
    Totals 5-4

    Wow, there are just so many I like again this week . And to tell you the truth, if I didn't post so early I would have had 2 more wins to my credit as the lines have moved in my favor...but it's too hard waiting so here goes.......


    Georgia +2.5 vs Tennessee - Georgia has been playing just well enough to win (5-0) and now they get pts at home vs Tennessee? First real road test for Tennessee who have enjoyed 4 home games out of 5. This will be their 2nd in a row on the road. Georgia 'D' is tough, pitching 2 shutouts so far and only given up a total of 34 pts in 5 games.
    Oregon +5 @ California - I think this is going to be a really close game. Oregon will be a lot tougher test than Minnesota and Arizona St were for Cal, and of course Arizona St pretty much gave the game away with 5 TO's (2 returned for TD's). Oregon does put the ball on the ground alot though as they have fumbled 11 times in only 4 games but only losing 5 of those. Cal has also fumbled a bit with 8 and losing 4 of those, so TO's could definitely play a part in the outcome. The Ducks already have 2 big road wins , at Arizona St and Fresno St so they've shown they can play tough on the road.
    Texas Tech -4 vs Missouri - Tough to figure Missou (5-0) as they have not really played anybody. Colorado actually played them pretty tough last week, they moved the ball well and just screwed up once they got in range. Colorado actually out-yarded them by about 20 yds. Now they hit the road for only the 2nd time to face a deadly Texas Tech team that just beat a pretty good A&M team on the road by this same spread. Could be a shootout but I just don't think the Tigers are all that great and it will probably show this week.
    Clemson -16.5 @ Wake Forest - 5-0 Wake Forest in for a rude awakening I'm afraid after feasting on some pretty lousy teams. A couple things stand out here. Wake gave up 305 yds passing to Duke who led 10-0 at the half. Wake Forest needed a TD with a minute left to pull out the 1 pt win at home vs a team that's been shutout in 3 out of 4 games this year! Also, starting QB Mauck and leading rusher Micah Andrews are both out for the year.
    Baylor +5 @ Colorado - Colorado is looking a lot better last 2 games but still shooting themselves in the foot too often, and at 0-5 have no business being 5 pt favorites. Baylor playing really tough defense this year. In their 3 losses they led TCU 7-0 at halftime, lost to Wash St 17-15 on last second FG and lost to Army in OT. Held Kansas St to 3 pts in last weeks 17-3 win.
    Purdue +11 @ Iowa - For the life of me I can't figure out why Iowa gets so much respect. They haven't beat anybody! They've beat Montana, Syracuse, Iowa St and Illinois....big freakin' deal. Last weeks +7 vs Ohio St was ridiculous. This line might be even more so.
    Texas -5.5 vs Oklahoma - Sooners aren't quite back yet to the level of the Longhorns I don't think. Oregon torched them for 500 yds and Texas has a much better 'D'.
    Pittsburgh -7 @ Syracuse - Pittsburgh back focused after that Michigan St waxing and has faced much better competition so far. Throw out Michigan St and Pitt has only given up 13, 15, 6 and 3 pts. while posting 38, 33, 51 and 45 themselves.
    Washington +21 @ USC - I've given up on going with USC and these big lines...their offense just isn't as potent this year. And especially with Jarrett out again...they really missed him last week I think. Washington has been a nice little surprise this year and I won with them last week as road underdogs at Arizona. Their one loss this year was at Oklahoma by 17 and it was actually tied 13 all at halftime. USC hasn't scored more than 28 in the last 3 games so 21 sound pretty good.
    Florida +2 vs LSU - Not sure what Florida has done to warrant being dogs in this game. LSU has lost their only road game this year which also happened to be their only decent opponent so far, while Florida has quality wins over Tennessee and Alabama.
    BYU -27.5 vs San Diego St - San Diego St (0-4) is extremely banged up right now and have only managed 32 first downs and 17 total pts in the last 3 games combined, and losing to San Jose St by 21 last week. BYU clicking on all cylinders right now and won big for me last week as a road dog at TCU. This should be a rout.
    Auburn -15.5 vs Arkansas - How on earth Arkansas won that game against Alabama is beyond me. Alabama held edges of 361-269 total yds, 3-1 TO's, 20-15 first downs and almost 19 minutes time of possession. Unfortunately Alabama also had the edge in penalties 11-5....lol! Besides that win, Arkansas has got blown out by USC, edged Vanderbilt and beat a pathetic Utah St team. Auburn had a tougher than expected time of it last week at South Carolina but still managed a nice 7 pt win on the road. Auburn has only given up 41 total pts in 5 games with 17 of those coming last week. I think they roll here.
    Wisconsin -21 vs Northwestern - Yep, after going with (and getting burned by) Northwestern 3 times in a row I've finally learned my lesson. They are bumbling idiots that continuously fuck themselves with stupid mistakes. This is also Northwestern's 3rd (tough) road game in a row and 4th out of 6. Wisconsin is rounding into form I believe. This could be covered by halftime (he said confidently).

  • #2
    Originally posted by dragon1952
    Georgia +2.5 vs Tennessee - Georgia has been playing just well enough to win (5-0) and now they get pts at home vs Tennessee? First real road test for Tennessee who have enjoyed 4 home games out of 5. This will be their 2nd in a row on the road. Georgia 'D' is tough, pitching 2 shutouts so far and only given up a total of 34 pts in 5 games.
    Georgia's offense is also atrocious with Stafford/Cox at the helm, yes their defense is stout, but their offense is almost worthless against a good SEC defense. Tennessee isn't great, but they are a good team and should be able to house UGA by a FG or two, but it will be close.

    Oregon +5 @ California - I think this is going to be a really close game. Oregon will be a lot tougher test than Minnesota and Arizona St were for Cal, and of course Arizona St pretty much gave the game away with 5 TO's (2 returned for TD's). Oregon does put the ball on the ground alot though as they have fumbled 11 times in only 4 games but only losing 5 of those. Cal has also fumbled a bit with 8 and losing 4 of those, so TO's could definitely play a part in the outcome. The Ducks already have 2 big road wins , at Arizona St and Fresno St so they've shown they can play tough on the road.
    Well l think its a toss up between these two, like just about every other PAC10 game... depends who shows up. l like the Over in this game, and don't even know what it is.


    Texas Tech -4 vs Missouri - Tough to figure Missou (5-0) as they have not really played anybody. Colorado actually played them pretty tough last week, they moved the ball well and just screwed up once they got in range. Colorado actually out-yarded them by about 20 yds. Now they hit the road for only the 2nd time to face a deadly Texas Tech team that just beat a pretty good A&M team on the road by this same spread. Could be a shootout but I just don't think the Tigers are all that great and it will probably show this week.
    Agreed, but a tough call none-the-less, l would probably take the over here also.

    Clemson -16.5 @ Wake Forest - 5-0 Wake Forest in for a rude awakening I'm afraid after feasting on some pretty lousy teams. A couple things stand out here. Wake gave up 305 yds passing to Duke who led 10-0 at the half. Wake Forest needed a TD with a minute left to pull out the 1 pt win at home vs a team that's been shutout in 3 out of 4 games this year! Also, starting QB Mauck and leading rusher Micah Andrews are both out for the year.
    Agreed, but Clemson is famous for playing 4 or 5 great games, and then dropping one on the road to Duke, or Wake, or UT Chattanooga, etc... Wake is playing the best ball they have played in decades... l rode the Clemson train last two weeks. lm stepping off for a week.


    Baylor +5 @ Colorado - Colorado is looking a lot better last 2 games but still shooting themselves in the foot too often, and at 0-5 have no business being 5 pt favorites. Baylor playing really tough defense this year. In their 3 losses they led TCU 7-0 at halftime, lost to Wash St 17-15 on last second FG and lost to Army in OT. Held Kansas St to 3 pts in last weeks 17-3 win.
    No opinion on this one.

    Purdue +11 @ Iowa - For the life of me I can't figure out why Iowa gets so much respect. They haven't beat anybody! They've beat Montana, Syracuse, Iowa St and Illinois....big freakin' deal. Last weeks +7 vs Ohio St was ridiculous. This line might be even more so.
    l like the points, but think the line will be driven down to 9 or so before l get a shot at it. Don't be fooled though, Tate can work some crazy magic and blow Purdue out, but thats doubtful in a hangover game after ESPN came to Kinnick.
    Texas -5.5 vs Oklahoma - Sooners aren't quite back yet to the level of the Longhorns I don't think. Oregon torched them for 500 yds and Texas has a much better 'D'.
    This is the Red River Shootout... throw records, trends, and everything else out of the window. Texas looks like the better team, but this game is circled on both teams calendars every year, and it will be a killer.

    Pittsburgh -7 @ Syracuse - Pittsburgh back focused after that Michigan St waxing and has faced much better competition so far. Throw out Michigan St and Pitt has only given up 13, 15, 6 and 3 pts. while posting 38, 33, 51 and 45 themselves.
    Love Pitt and the Over, but Syracuse is improving as the weeks go on.
    Washington +21 @ USC - I've given up on going with USC and these big lines...their offense just isn't as potent this year. And especially with Jarrett out again...they really missed him last week I think. Washington has been a nice little surprise this year and I won with them last week as road underdogs at Arizona. Their one loss this year was at Oklahoma by 17 and it was actually tied 13 all at halftime. USC hasn't scored more than 28 in the last 3 games so 21 sound pretty good.
    Preach on... USC burned me twice on big spreads... so lm done with them.

    Florida +2 vs LSU - Not sure what Florida has done to warrant being dogs in this game. LSU has lost their only road game this year which also happened to be their only decent opponent so far, while Florida has quality wins over Tennessee and Alabama.
    Ok, lm a homer since l am LSU Alumni and bleed purple and gold... but UF is going to be most likely without DeShaun Wynn, their starting running back. Their second back is a freshman with limited carries...which means 2 TOs probably. LSU's D is the best in the nation, 3rd against the pass, 1st against the rush. UF will have to pass on our secondary led by first rd draft pick LaRon Landry, Jesse Daniels and Jon Zenon (4 picks / 2 RFTD). This game is at UF's house, but we have won in the Swamp our last 2 trips. You comment that LSU lost to their only decent opponent on the road this year, but if you didn't watch the game, it was one of the worst called games most people have ever seen, only to be overshadowed that night by the OU/Oregon game. When l rated this game non-biased using Feist's powerratings, l got LSU -2 also, but lm staying away from betting this game.


    [
    B]BYU -27.5[/B] vs San Diego St - San Diego St (0-4) is extremely banged up right now and have only managed 32 first downs and 17 total pts in the last 3 games combined, and losing to San Jose St by 21 last week. BYU clicking on all cylinders right now and won big for me last week as a road dog at TCU. This should be a rout.
    Hate laying that many points, but BYU's offense is cranking out the points...

    Auburn -15.5 vs Arkansas - How on earth Arkansas won that game against Alabama is beyond me. Alabama held edges of 361-269 total yds, 3-1 TO's, 20-15 first downs and almost 19 minutes time of possession. Unfortunately Alabama also had the edge in penalties 11-5....lol! Besides that win, Arkansas has got blown out by USC, edged Vanderbilt and beat a pathetic Utah St team. Auburn had a tougher than expected time of it last week at South Carolina but still managed a nice 7 pt win on the road. Auburn has only given up 41 total pts in 5 games with 17 of those coming last week. I think they roll here.
    Auburn at home, the refs will help if the team comes out flat again, but l wouldn't lay the points. Arkansas has a good running game, and their true freshman QB Mustain is improving each week. He'll be good for two picks though.

    Wisconsin -21 vs Northwestern - Yep, after going with (and getting burned by) Northwestern 3 times in a row I've finally learned my lesson. They are bumbling idiots that continuously fuck themselves with stupid mistakes. This is also Northwestern's 3rd (tough) road game in a row and 4th out of 6. Wisconsin is rounding into form I believe. This could be covered by halftime (he said confidently).
    l was intrigued by this game, l love Wisconsin this year and have been taking them every week and cashing in, but Northwestern has a good D, and is very impressive against the run. Wisconsin is one dimensional to a fault, if NW can take away the run early and force Stocco to pass a good bit... Badgers will be in trouble. But l'll probably wait and see what line l can get... hopefully lower.
    [I]"Great things are not accomplished by those who yield to trends and fads and popular opinion.”[/I]

    Comment


    • #3
      Appreciate the comments! Thanks.

      Georgia will win this game straight up. Tennessee has played one good game and that was at home when they took Cal by surprise. They almost lost to Air Force, they had -11 yds rushing vs Florida, then they beat up on two nobodies. Georgia 'D' has 2 shutouts and hasn't given up more than 13 in any game so far and that will allow the offense to score just enough to go 6-0 on the year (as in undefeated).

      Comment


      • #4
        Who has Jawja played? South Carolina, Colorado, UAB, and Ole Miss....

        South Carolina, they only managed 15 pts against a South Carolina defense that is very weak against the run. Why may you ask? b/c Georgia doesn't have a decent running game.

        Colorado, we saw how a hungry defense can affect a young inexperienced QB, you will see alot worse from UT's defense, they will be headhunting.

        UAB, quality opponent, but not SEC calibur Defense.

        Ole Miss had to rely on defense to stop a horrible Ole Miss offense, while allowing the offense to luck into some points.

        Tennessee will win the game b/c UGA will not be able to manufacture any points against their D.

        My guess:

        Tennessee - 14 UGA - 6
        [I]"Great things are not accomplished by those who yield to trends and fads and popular opinion.”[/I]

        Comment


        • #5
          Doesn't matter...Georgia 'D' will help out by giving the 'O' a few short fields and maybe even score themselves. They won't need many points.

          Comment


          • #6
            Dragon1952 - Tuesday CFB - S. Miss at Tulsa

            I am also taking Tulsa -4.5.
            S. Miss playing much better at home and didn't look all that great last week despite the W. Tulsa is tough at home and has had an extra week to prepare. Tulsa handled Southern Miss easily LY on the road and they basically have the same team back this year. Last years stats all Tulsa....total yds 475-169, rushing yds 243-37, TO's 4-2, first downs 26-11 and time of possession 42:23-17:37!!!

            Comment


            • #7
              l wanted to take Tulsa at -4.5, but the line came out on BoDog at -5.5 and only dropped to 5 for about 2 minutes.

              maybe l'll 6pt Tease Tulsa pk and Under 51 (The total is down to 45 from 48 this morning)
              [I]"Great things are not accomplished by those who yield to trends and fads and popular opinion.”[/I]

              Comment


              • #8
                The line is currently -4.5 at sports.com
                I think 5.5 would be OK considering most times at -4.5 you need 6 anyway (he said confidently watch it be 5 exactly)

                Comment


                • #9
                  Nice voice over lol.... l think l may just stay away from this game
                  [I]"Great things are not accomplished by those who yield to trends and fads and popular opinion.”[/I]

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Pre-game update

                    A few spread moves here and there. Sometimes it pays to play them early but there always seems to be a couple that get me. I made out though on,
                    Washington +21 which has moved to +19
                    BYU -27.5 which has moved to -28.5
                    Texa Tech -4 which is now -5
                    Florida +2 which made the move all the way to a -1 favorite

                    and I lost out on,
                    Texas -5.5 which went way down to -4

                    Not too bad this week. Now I guess I've gotta see how they play out! Good luck everyone

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