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NFL KEY RELEASES 10/8
When we handicap the College games, we put much more emphasis on certain emotional factors that have an impact on the outcome the games. In the NFL, those same factors rarely exist. The meat and potatoes of our NFL selections are statistically based. Thus, it can be difficult to "take up space" with long winded write ups that generally have nothing to do with why we like the game. Keep that in mind when reading our NFL selections. Be more concerned with the actual pick, as opposed to the write up. With that in mind.....3* Redskins +5 over Giants - Huge NFC East game here between old rivals. Giants one game more desperate than the Skins here as they only have one win to date. Last time we so the Giants they were chasing Seahawks all over the field. The bottom line on this game for us, is simply that we have several ways to come up with our own numbers on games, and each of those ways has this game anywhere from pick em to the Giants -2. That gives us a nice cushion between our number and the actual line of +5 because we have the all important number 3 in the middle. Can't pass it up.
3* Saints -6.5 over Bucs - More of the same here. We make the Saints almost a two touchdown winner here. The Buc's are terrible and in shambles. Saints keep on playing impressive football and continue to head in the right direction (up). We don't generally like laying much more than a field goal in the NFL but can't help ourselves here.
3* Browns +8 over Panthers - This number is just wrong. We make the Panthers a field goal or less of a favorite here. Not sure where all this added respect for the Panthers is coming from but it's certainly not coming for us. Panthers are a play away from losing to pitiful Tampa Bay and themselves being 1-3 like the Browns. No shame in the Browns record as they have been competitive against a few of the better teams in the NFL this year. The Browns plus/minus number of -8 is cause for concern here, as teams that turn the ball over don't win ball games. But +8 is way too many in a game that figures to be close.
3* Jets +7 -120 over Jags - Perhaps it won't be necessary to lay the -120 by game time. But we want the +7 on this one. Jets keep on trucking. If the Jets aren't winning, they are right there with a chance to win in the 4th quarter. They aren't a bad football team this year. Prior to last week we may have felt that the Jag defense would be too much for the Jets. But the Skins hung 36 on the board last week and exposed some weakness in that "D". Once again, our number on this game is LESS than a field goal which gives us a whole bunch of points to play with. We can't leave those on the table.
3* Eagles -1.5 over Cowboys - We mentioned at the top of this page how we didn't use emotional factors all that much when handicapping the NFL. We didn't lie. We really don't. But, just by coincidence, there's a game this week that we will use and base the play on emotion. Statistically, we make the Eagles a 2 point fav. So in our opinion, the line is dead on here. However, then comes the T.O. Factor. Here's the difference in this game. These two, for all intents and purposes, are fairly equal football teams. Take them out to a neutral field and play a 100 games each one wins 50. But add in the T.O factor along with the home field edge, and Philly wins at least 60 out of 100 which would show us a nice profit. The bottom line here is that on the Cowboys side of the ball, the only one caught up in the T.O crap is T.O himself. T.O would love nothing more than to beat the Eagles. The Cowboys as a team, simply want to win a divisional road game. The Eagles on the other hand, to a man, would like nothing more than to beat the big mouthed baby who goes by the initials T.O. Not to mention the 80,000 screaming maniacs called Eagles fans. That makes it 22-1. 22 players on the field for Philly that are caught up in this emotion and one player on the Cowboys.....the cause of it all. Look for the Eagles to have the larger number on the scoreboard when the dust settles.
. Dallas does seem to fade quite a bit in the second half of games so far, but I see them putting plenty of points up in the first half.
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