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Dragon1952 - CFB Week 8

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  • Dragon1952 - CFB Week 8

    Well, after the earlier games last Sat. I was 7-3 with 3 to go and Georgia up 24-7 over Tennessee so I figured the worst I could do was 8-5....wrong! How about 7-6.
    Updated record:
    38-30-3 sides
    5-5 totals

    Man, I've picked a lot of road teams this week.....not a good sign

    Syracuse +25.5 @ West Virginia - It's actually been a pretty darn easy schedule for the Mountaineers with probably their toughest game so far being the road game vs East Carolina. Syracuse's schedule looks a little tougher at second look now that Wake Forest is where they're at. The orange guys have the 10 pt loss at Wake, a 7 pt loss at Iowa in 2 OT's and a 10 pt loss to Pittsburgh to go with their 3 wins. They are also only giving up an average of 19 pts per game in regulation (OT excluded). Of course in those 3 losses, against very good defenses, they've only scored about 10 pts per game too, but I think that's about all they'd need here for the cover. West Virginia only beat East Carolina by 17 and only beat Maryland by 21, giving up 24 pts themselves in that game, so +25.5 with a good defense sounds pretty good.
    Purdue -7.5 @ Northwestern - I'll take anybody vs Northwestern at this point. They've been beat by double digits in all 4 of their losses so far and I doubt they'll win this one. They might be 1-5 ATS this year.
    Wake Forest +4.5 @ N.C. State - The Wolfpack stock going up a bit with the back to back wins over B.C. and Florida State....as underdogs. Now they're asked to be 4.5 pt favorites against a really good defensive team that almost upset Clemson last week to go 6-0. Could be letdown time for both but this could be a very low scoring game so +4.5 could be nice, especially with a team that could possibly win outright.
    Texas A&M +2.5 vs Missouri - I went against Missouri last week as I wasn't really sold on them and I'm still not to tell you the truth. That probably wasn't a real great spot to take the Red Raiders coming off of that big rivalry win vs A&M where they scored the TD with less than a minute left to pull out the 'W'. Texas Tech played an absolutely pathetic game, helping Missou out with 5 TO's, 2 of which were INT's returned for TD's. I'm going against the Tigers again in their 2nd road game in a row vs a decent 5-1 A&M team getting pts.
    Kansas St +11.5 vs Nebraska - This is a lot of pts in this big rivalry game. The Wildcats haven't given up more than 27 pts in any of their 6 games so far and held Louisville to 24. And Nebraska did give up 32 big ones and 574 total yds to Kansas a couple weeks ago.
    Florida +2.5 @ Auburn - Florida has shown they can win these games with big wins over Tennessee and double digits wins over Alabama and LSU so far. This is only their 2nd road game of the year though but they've got a great defense which is only giving up an avg of less than 10 pts per game, as well as an explosive offense which is averaging 29 pts per game. Auburn had a good defense...until last week anyway....but their offense is spotty only managing 182 total yds vs LSU and only 213 vs Arkansas with only a total of 17 pts in those 2 games......go Gators!
    California -7.5 @ Washington St. - Wow.....in their last 5 games Cal has scored 42, 42, 49, 41 and 45! Even more amazing, their margins of victory have been 25, 26, 28, 28 and 21! And 3 out of 4 of those opponents have been equal to or better than The Cougars. Nuff said.
    Ohio St -15 @ Michigan St - Yikes, tough stretch of games for Michigan St with the unbelievable loss to Notre Dame, then the last second loss to Illinois and then their biggest game of the year at Michigan. They've got to be spent emotionally, and now they get the #1 team in the nation whose smallest margin of victory in 6 games has been 17. I'll take the Buckeyes, please.
    Florida St -22.5 @ Duke - Finally.....a team Florida St can beat up on. Duke has been shutout in 3 out of their 5 games this year...and one of those was a 37-0 loss to Virginia for crying out loud!
    UCLA +10.5 @ Oregon - UCLA has a very good defense and they can score some points too. All 4 of their wins have been by at least 10. In their only loss, by 10 @ Washington, they had a 19-14 lead going into the 4th but gave up 15 pts in the last 8 minutes of the game. Oregon has a propensity to turn the ball over with 11 TO's in their 5 games so far. UCLA has had their share of TO's also but at least they're on the plus side as they've had 14 takeaways themselves. UCLA should certainly be able to hang in this one getting a whopping 10.5 pts.
    Iowa State +19.5 @ Oklahoma - An awful lot of pts for Oklahoma to cover after coming off of their biggest rivalry game of the year, a disappointing 18 pt loss to the Longhorns where Oklahoma could only manage 10 pts. Iowa State has only lost once in their 3 losses by this big of a margin, by 23 at Texas, the only game this year that they have given up more than 28 pts in regulation.
    San Jose St -13.5 vs Utah St. - San Jose St 3-1 on the year with their only loss by 6 at what has materialized as a very good Washington team. Utah St 1-5 with an unprobable 1 pt victory over Fresno St last week. Before that it was ugly with defeats by the scores of 38-7, 20-0, 48-0, 38-0 and 41-21....you get the picture. The Spartans fresh off of a bye week and prior to that a 21 pt ass whooping of San Diego St., a much better team than Utah St.
    Baylor +29.5 @ Texas - Baylor playing very good defense this year and at 3-3 they could very easily have been 5-1, with an OT loss to Army and a last second 2 pt loss at Wash St. The Bears have not given up more than 20 pts in regulation in any of their 6 games this year and coming off of a nice road win at Colorado. Texas may be in for a slight letdown maybe after last weeks Red River Shootout?
    Arizona St +19 @ USC - USC still living off of their past laurels it seems as they have not scored over 28 pts in their last 4 games yet continue to be 17-20 pt favorites. Arizona St coming off of a bye after 2 huge losses to Cal and Oregon who seem to possess much better scoring ability than USC. USC is also still pretty banged up at key positions.
    Michigan -6.5 @ Penn St - Penn St.'s 4 wins TY over powerhouses such as Akron, Youngstown St, Northwestern, and a 1 pt OT win last week vs Minnesota. Their 2 losses by 24 and 22 to N.D. and Ohio St. Michigan 6-0 with wins by 20, 24, 28, 14, 14 and 18. Michigan and Ohio St will be undefeated when they meet in the last game of the regular season, Nov 18.

  • #2
    Record update after Thurs and Fri night games

    41-30-3 sides
    5-5 totals
    0-1 ML

    My Saturday pick update:

    Syracuse +25.5 @ West Virginia - no change
    Purdue -7.5 @ Northwestern - Line dropped to -7 at -115 odds. I don't see how anyone could bet Northwestern
    Wake Forest +4.5 @ N.C. State - Line has dropped way down to +3!
    Texas A&M +2.5 vs Missouri - Slight drop to -2
    Florida +2.5 @ Auburn - Same as last week vs LSU. Florida started out the dog and winds up the favorite. Line now at Florida -2
    California -7.5 @ Washington St. - Line has jumped to -8.5
    Ohio St -15 @ Michigan St - Down a pt to -14 at -155 odds
    Florida St -22.5 @ Duke - Line moved up to -23.5 for awhile but now back to -22.5. This is my game of the week contest pick, BTW.
    UCLA +10.5 @ Oregon - Line has dropped to +9.
    Iowa State +19.5 @ Oklahoma - No change
    San Jose St -13.5 vs Utah St. - Huge jump here to -16.5. Someone must have read my insightful write-up .....yeah right
    Baylor +29.5 @ Texas - Way down to only +27 now
    Arizona St +19 @ USC - Down a half to +18.5
    Michigan -6.5 @ Penn St - Line down to -6.

    Looks like picking early helped me out pretty good this week. The UCLA and Baylor action kind of surprise me as all the hotshot picks I've seen seem to favor Oregon and Texas bigtime. Same with the Wake Forest action..... everyone seems to be on N.C. State.
    And the San Jose St action does not surprise me at all.
    However, not sure if any of those 4 would have still made my list at the current prices.

    Comment


    • #3
      Missed one....

      Kansas St +11.5 vs Nebraska - Down to +9 now...another big drop and not sure this one would've made my list at this price either.

      Correction -
      I wrote,
      Ohio St -15 @ Michigan St - Down a pt to -14 at -155 odds

      I meant now at -14 at -115 odds!

      Comment


      • #4
        Hey Dragon, any opinion on these two:

        Utah/Wyoming
        Texas Tech/Colorado


        Just wanna have something to fall back on - 'cause some of those games you picked look pretty tough......Good Luck !
        ;)

        Comment


        • #5
          I'm not going to bet those games but if you'd like my opinion.......
          I didn't really think much of Utah going into the TCU game. They got waxed pretty good by UCLA in the opener and then they had the 3 wins in a row against really subpar competition, and then they got waxed again by Boise St. I expected TCU to win that game so I guess I can say they surprised me there.
          Wyoming has the 2 wins vs Utah St and New Mexico which doesn't really say much. What you can say is that they certainly haven't got blown out in any of their losses which are by 1, 7, 7 and 6 with two results in OT. What's really amazing is that they held Boise St to only 246 total yds and only 17 pts. Especially considering Boise St racked up 400 yds and 36 pts against Utah.
          I think the two offenses are pretty equal in their production, but evidently Wyoming has given up a ton of sacks this year. Something like 4 per game average which ranks them at 111th in Div A. Another thing is their turnovers. In 6 games they've had 16, 8 INT's and 8 fumbles, which gives them a -9 in TO's. Utah, on the other hand is +7 in TO's with a whopping 11 INT's to their credit.
          One last thing I like to look at is the PK comparison where Utah is 8/9 in FG's with a longest of 44 yds and Wyoming is only 7/12 with a longest of 43.
          Also, although this certainly isn't the same Utah team as the past few years, Utah has won at least the previous 3 yrs in a row by very large margins.
          So I guess considering the sacks, TO's and place kicking ...if things hold true to form...might favor Utah minus the FG.

          As for the Texas Tech/Colorado game, I was not impressed at all last week with Texas Tech, although that's the only game I've seen them in this year. Colorado was not expected to be a really bad team this year so their start is somewhat of a surprise. But they have been improving each game lately and could have beaten Georgia on their own turf so to think that they couldn't hang within a TD at home against Texas Tech would not surprise me. Colorado has racked up 765 yds rushing in the past 4 games and Texas Tech can be run on, so if Colorado can eat up some clock and keep them off the field that would definitely be to their advantage. Having said that though, if Texas Tech happens to win by 2 TD's that wouldn't surprise me greatly either

          Comment


          • #6
            And oh yeah...what do you mean some of my picks look pretty tough? Don't you trust me I got 9 dogs that don't even need to win!

            Comment


            • #7
              I am sure you know this, but this maybe the reason for the high line in the UCLA/Oregon game:

              Olsen QB Ucla=10/07/2006 Out until Late Nov - Knee
              Will miss four to six weeks after an MRI revealed a torn MCL suffered during Oct 7th game.

              Patrick Cowan will be making his first start ever & on the road. He came in and replaced Olsen last week against ARZ, and was 20/29 for 201yds and 2TDs, but that was at home and this will be a hostile Duck stadium in the rain after Oregon played their worst game againt cal last week.

              I am probably wrong here though as I seen the line at +9 now.

              Good Luck with your plays today. I love Cal, Florida and SJST my favorites for the day.
              good luck

              Comment


              • #8
                Nah man, I didn't mean it like that at all.....It's just that I like to figure MY own line before I see the actual line come out, and a lot of these were right on (give or take a point or two).....So what I meant was, some of the games you played looked tough, not your picks....Gotta take a stance somewhere though so Good Luck man.


                Thanks for that insight on the two games I asked about....Let's make some greens!
                ;)

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by garister
                  I am sure you know this, but this maybe the reason for the high line in the UCLA/Oregon game:

                  Olsen QB Ucla=10/07/2006 Out until Late Nov - Knee
                  Will miss four to six weeks after an MRI revealed a torn MCL suffered during Oct 7th game.

                  Patrick Cowan will be making his first start ever & on the road. He came in and replaced Olsen last week against ARZ, and was 20/29 for 201yds and 2TDs, but that was at home and this will be a hostile Duck stadium in the rain after Oregon played their worst game againt cal last week.

                  I am probably wrong here though as I seen the line at +9 now.

                  Good Luck with your plays today. I love Cal, Florida and SJST my favorites for the day.
                  Yeah, actually I didn't know it when I first made the pick but I've known it for a few days now.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Better fade me bigtime in the late games dudes. It's shaping up to be a pretty decent day

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Hey man did you see me get clipped on that West Virginia game in the last 3 minutes when Syracuse kicked a meaningless field goal to cover the 24 1/2 (I bet it early in the week) by a 1/2 point?.....That sucks!!!.....I guess it wasn't meaningless if you were "middling" on this game......oh well, we'll get 'em later.
                      ;)

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Yeah...sorry bud...that was good for me but bad for you for sure! Good luck in the late games!

                        Update:

                        Finally looks like I'll have a winning week after a couple .500 efforts.

                        Syracuse +25.5 @ West Virginia WON - late FG gives me the cover although Syracuse has the cover for most of the game.
                        Purdue -7.5 @ Northwestern WON Easy cover for Purdue
                        Wake Forest +4.5 @ N.C. State WON Wake gets the outright win!
                        Texas A&M +2.5 vs Missouri WON A&M gets the outright win!
                        Ohio St -15 @ Michigan St WON Easy cover for the Buckeyes
                        Florida St -22.5 @ Duke WON Florida State had to make it close though didn't they. Giving up 24 to Duke is pretty pathetic.
                        UCLA +10.5 @ Oregon WON Man that was a squeaker...bad calls and all I get the 1/2 pt cover.
                        Iowa State +19.5 @ Oklahoma LOST Lost on a late TD run by Peterson with 6:30 left in the game. Broken collarbone as a result. Serves their asses right for having him in there at that point anyway.....idiots!
                        San Jose St -13.5 vs Utah St. - Pending Not looking good. The Spartans down 14-7 at HT. Shit, I need this for a nice 4 team parlay!
                        California -7.5 @ Washington St. Pending Cal up 21-3 late in the 3rd
                        Baylor +29.5 @ Texas - Pending
                        Arizona St +19 @ USC -Pending
                        Michigan -6.5 @ Penn St - Pending
                        Florida +2.5 @ Auburn - Pending

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Forgot

                          Kansas St +11.5 vs Nebraska Pending


                          Shit, I've got enough games left to still make it to .500

                          Fade me man, fade me

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Syracuse +25.5 @ West Virginia WON - late FG gives me the cover although Syracuse actually had the cover for most of the game.
                            Purdue -7.5 @ Northwestern WON Easy cover for Purdue
                            Wake Forest +4.5 @ N.C. State WON Wake gets the outright win!
                            Texas A&M +2.5 vs Missouri WON A&M gets the outright win!
                            Ohio St -15 @ Michigan St WON Easy cover for the Buckeyes
                            Florida St -22.5 @ Duke WON Florida State had to make it close though didn't they. Giving up 24 to Duke is pretty pathetic.
                            UCLA +10.5 @ Oregon WON Man that was a squeaker...bad calls and all I get the 1/2 pt cover.
                            Iowa State +19.5 @ Oklahoma LOST Lost on a late TD run by Peterson with 6:30 left in the game. Broken collarbone as a result. Serves their asses right for having him in there at that point anyway.....idiots!
                            San Jose St -13.5 vs Utah St. LOST The asshole Spartans barely beat the pathetic Utah St whatever the hell they are by 7 as 16.5 pt favorites
                            California -7.5 @ Washington St. WON Solid win for the Bears on the road vs a tough Cougar team.
                            Baylor +29.5 @ Texas - LOST Unbelievable...Baylor jumps out to a 10-0 lead and ends up losing by 32
                            Arizona St +19 @ USC -WON USC jumps out to a 21 pt lead in the 1st half before stalling out and then lets the Sun Devils catch up to make it more challenging. Win by 7 for their 3rd win in a row by a TD or less
                            Michigan -6.5 @ Penn St - WON Wolverines hold Penn St to 189 total yds and -16 yds rushing in a 7 win that wasn't as close as the final score suggests
                            Florida +2.5 @ Auburn - LOST The Gators give up 10 pts in the last 30 secs to lose by 10.....un fucking believable
                            Kansas St +11.5 vs Nebraska LOST The Wildcats hold the Cornholers to 21 pts and still can't cover 11.5

                            10-5 for the day

                            CFB record for the year:
                            sides 51-35-3
                            totals 5-5
                            ML 0-1

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Very well done, I could not believe how dominant the buckeye defense was today. I can not wait until the Blue come calling. Might be the biggest regular season game in NCAA history.

                              Continued success to you
                              It doesn't take a zoologist to identify the ass.^^^^

                              Comment

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