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AWESOME ANGLE
OF THE WEEK
Marc's Awesome Angle Of The Week
Wins 67% In PLAYBOOK Last Four Years!
ATS W-L Record
Since 1980:
15-1-1
(94%)
POMPOUS
PIGS PLAY ON any NFL Game 5
or later winless dog of
more than 7 points versus
a non-division opponent
off a SU & ATS loss.
A Weekly Insight Into The Art Of Sports Handicapping
BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW by Marc Lawrence
NO WAY, JOSE...
PLAY ON:
TENNESSEE TITANS
As we continue to extol the virtues of playing with rest
during the college football season, lets expand our look
into GAME SIX. It seems teams taking on a conference
opponent fare rather well with a breather as evidenced by
an overall 121-98-1 ATS in all games since 1980.
Bring them in off a SU loss and they improve to 69-47 ATS.
We fi nd four teams in that role this week Arizona State,
Eastern Michigan, Troy and Virginia Tech.
A rather nice tightener comes about when we bring the
opponent in off a win, as GAME SIX rested teams playing
off a SU loss are 39-19 ATS when taking on a foe off a SU
win. Arizona State, Troy and Virginia Tech answer the bell
this week.
The best of all roles occurs when our GAME SIX rested team
is off back-to-back losses and taking on an opponent off a
win as these teams are 18-5 ATS. We fi nd two teams in that
role this week Arizona State and Troy.
TEAMS KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS
The Spartans of Michigan State
are just 1-29 ATS in their last 30 SU losses
when playing off a SU loss.
CLEMSON over Temple by 44
Clemson dodged several bullets in Winston-Salem last week and
limped (and we mean limped - several injuries for Clemmie) home
with a 27-17 win. The Tigers don't have to worry about bullets here.
Temple isn't armed. All they have to do is win the game and stay
healthy with the former being the easiest part to accomplish. You
know we aren't going to lay what could be the highest number of
the season, not with a revenger against Georgia Tech on deck.
Virginia Tech over BOSTON COLL by 3
Normally we'd be all over a BC team that stands 6-1 ATS as a
home dog against a foe off a loss. That is until we checked out
the Hokies' numbers, and what the SMART BOX had to say. The
Hokies are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a
double-digit loss, 8-1 ATS on the conference road versus avenging
teams, and haven't lost three straight to the pointspread in the
regular season since 2002. Boston College is a poor 0-5 ATS in its
last fi ve home revenge games.
AIR FORCE over Colorado St by 1
Air Force wanted that Navy game as badly as any team has
ever wanted a win. Because they didn't get it, don't look for an
enthusiastic performance against the Rams. Colorado State is an
amazing 20-4-1 ATS as pick or dog in conference play and is a
perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six Thursday games. Air Force is 9-16 ATS
as a favorite with revenge. The Force was an underdog in each
meeting (7 of them) since 1998. The Pilots probably shouldn't be
favored here.
Pittsburgh over C FLORIDA by 10
The Golden Knights fi nally got rewarded for their courageous play
this season with a win at Marshall. Sure, Pitt is a step up in class
from the fl oundering Herd but UCF doesn't see it that way. It's just
another opportunity to play and win. Sadly, the Knights are 1-9
ATS in their last ten games against Big East teams and 2-11 ATS
in their last 13 non-conference games. Problem, though, is Pitt's
putrid 2-15 ATS mark as double-digit road chalk. Yech.
W VIRGINIA over Syracuse by 27
Syracuse had a chance to make a statement Saturday but couldn't
fi nd the processor and was unable to go over the top against Pitt.
After fi ve straight covers to start the season, the Orange went
down hard at home. Now that the peel is off, Syracuse might
become pulp in Morgantown. The Orange is just 4-20 ATS in its
last 24 as road dogs while WVU, on a 16-1 SU run, is a perfect 12-0
ATS in its last 12 wins against Syracuse. White Lightning.
Purdue over NORTHWESTERN by 7
These two Big Ten teams got crushed on the road last week, both
losing big for the second straight week. Who bounces back? Since
Northwestern has no healthy quarterbacks, not much of a defense
and a raw rookie as head coach, we have to lean toward Purdue.
The problem is that the Boilers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road
games and are allowing 30 points per game in their last 17 games,
hardly good credentials for road chalk.
WISCONSIN over Minnesota by 10
Last week saw another blowout win for Wisconsin and another
heartbreaking loss for Minnesota. The Gophers were unable to
convert the extra point after an overtime touchdown and lost
when Penn State did. This, after battling back courageously to
tie the game. Wisconsin, meanwhile, had another breezy day
against a Northwestern team that offered little resistance on
either side of the ball. Minnesota will have a few ohms in its
travel bag. Interestingly, though, they are 7-0 ATS in games after
tackling Penn State.
Iowa over INDIANA by 21
Illinois let the Hoosiers drive nearly the length of the fi eld with
no time-outs and less than two minutes to go and saw a walk
off fi eld goal go through the uprights while their hopes of a
two-game winning streak went out the window. Iowa will not
be so charitable to the Hoosiers. Indiana's defense is still the
worst in the league and will not be able to stop the Hawkeyes.
The Hoosiers have allowed 28 or more points in 41 of its last 47
conference losses. Iowa is 21-0 ATS in its last 21 games when it
scores 28 or more.
NC STATE over Wake Forest by 10
Wake Forest was on the verge of a huge upset as it lined up for
a fi eld goal to extend its fourth quarter lead to 20-3. But the
snap was botched and Clemson picked it up and ran it back for
a touchdown. The Tigers ended up winning 27-17. Talk about a
'bubble-burst'. We don't know how a team can come back from
that kind of heartbreak but, with NC State off a pair of last-minute
wins over Boston College and Florida State, the Deacons have the
right setup to rebound. We don't feel they will.
VIRGINIA over Maryland by 3
Confl icting numbers abound in this game. Virginia is 11-1 ATS in
its last 12 home games with revenge, 9-1 ATS the last 10 tries as
a home dog and the host is 6-1 ATS in this series. The Cavs are
just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games with the Terrapins. To be
fair, most of Virginia's positive numbers were accomplished with
teams far better than this one but the Cavs are still hard to beat in
Charlottesville. Bottom line is Maryland was a 14-point dog in their
last visit here two years ago and failed to score a single point.
S Florida over N CAROLINA by 7
Carolina didn't play that badly against Miami but the offense
couldn't get anything done and the Heels fell to their seventh
straight ATS loss. Outside the conference, North Carolina is 9-18
ATS at home. South Florida has a QB that will be a star in the
coming years and a lightning fast defense. That means the Bulls
can be competitive here. The victory starved Tar Heels remember
holding Virginia Tech to a season-low 224 yards on this fi eld earlier
this year, but that seems like eons ago.
Miami OH over BUFFALO by 6
Two of the worst teams in the league meet in front of tens of
fans in Buffalo in what may be the MAC's most insignifi cant
game of the year. Miami has won the last four meetings by
the incredible average of 47-6, two of those wins with Ben
Roethlisberger pitching for the RedHawks. We don't expect
anything of that nature in this game but we do believe that
Miami, a team that has won games like this, will prevail against
Buffalo, a team that hasn't. Remember, the Bulls lost by THIRTY
to Ball State last week.
C MICHIGAN over Ball St by 10
Ball State's romp by the Falls notwithstanding, the Cardinals are
not the greatest road team in the universe. Since hitting the Big
Board in 1998, Ball State has nine road wins in 40 tries. With Central
standing at 23-4 ATS in its last 27 SU wins, the Gonads better fi nd
a way to come out on top. Nate Davis, the MAC's top recruit last
year, has ignited the Ball State offense but it's the defense that
stifl es the team. Stay cool. Don't go Nuts here.
CONNECTICUT over Army by 3
Army got the taste of that drubbing by Rice out of its mouth by
abusing VMI last week but the taste of three straight defeats at the
hands of Connecticut (by an average score of 45-12) still remains.
Army has a chance. UConn is averaging a meager 14.7 points per
game against lined opposition in 2006 and the Black Knights are
15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games when the opponent fails to
hit the 21-point mark. That's a realistic possibility here.
NAVY over Rutgers by 7
Navy continues to shine on the road and remains one of the best
pointspread teams in the nation. Since November of 2002, the
Middies are 27-11-1 ATS including 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games
with revenge. Conversely, Rutgers is 1-9-1 ATS on the road after
a week off and 0-13 ATS as an underdog of more than +2 against
avenging opponents. The only saving grace for the Scarlet Knights
is the memory of a 54-21 pasting taken on this fi eld in 2004. Then
again, 6-0 road teams fi nd rest makes rust in Game Seven as they
are 0-5 ATS in this role when taking on a .700 or better opponent.
Navy sinks another victim.
TEXAS A&M over Missouri by 3
The Aggies won in the last seconds at Kansas and the Jayhawks
suffered yet another heartbreaking loss as the A&M resurgence
continues. They dress up as dogs for the fi rst time this season,
a role in which head coach Dennis Franchione is 9-4 ATS in his
college career. The Aggies are 12-4 SUATS at home when hosting an
unbeaten foe and also 7-0 ATS as home dogs against an opponent
off a SUATS win. The 6-0 Tigers have shown they can play. The
question is how will they react if (when) A&M takes a lead in this
contest, as Missouri hasn't trailed in a game this season. All good
things come to an end, and when it does, it's usually in a setting
like College Station.
Nebraska over KANSAS ST by 8
Nebraska used to waltz in here and run through about four or
fi ve levels of players before returning to Lincoln with another
convincing win. From 1981 to 1996, Nebbish won seven games in a
row here by an average of 35 points. In their last four trips, though,
the Cornhuskers are 0-4 SU with the last two being losses of 36
and 24 points. Kansas exposed the Nebraska defense. It remains
to be seen if K-State's freshman QB can do the same.
N Illinois over W MICHIGAN by 3
We thought Western Michigan would run Ohio into the ground
last Saturday but it turned out the wrong way. We have no
presumption that WMU will outrun Northern Illinois... nobody
does. Not only that, the Broncos have been unable to come close
to NIU in the last three meetings with losses averaging 28 points
each. Western wants to throw it, NIU wants to run it. The only thing
theY have in common is that they both lost to schizoid Ohio.
ALABAMA over Mississippi by 15
Don't think for a minute that Alabama didn't notice the huge
result from upstate last week and don't think for a minute that
Alabama isn't taking Mississippi seriously. The Tide has covered
six of the last seven against Ole Miss but, going after last week's
Duke game, Bama is 1-12 ATS at home against losing teams and
1-8 ATS in its last nine as home chalk. Still, Ole Miss has no wins
and one cover on the SEC road under Ed Orgeron. The Elephant's
poor spread mark on this fi eld brings this game cheap.
WYOMING over Utah by 3
Utah has won the last fi ve games with Wyoming by an average
of 23 points and appears to be the superior team once again this
year. But, the Cowboys are 9-3 ATS as pick or dog at home in their
last 12 tries and are playing better defensively than they have in
years. Last week's road win at New Mexico can only bolster their
confi dence. Utah is 13-5 SU & 11-6-1 ATS in its last 18 road games.
A win here, though, is hardly a certainty. Marc's BETCHA DIDN'T
KNOW article on page 2 lends solid support the Cowboys' way. We
see the series host improving to 6-0 ATS. Grab the points!
Tulsa over E CAROLINA by 3
Something's gotta give here. With East Carolina being one of the
hottest pointspread teams in the country and Tulsa standing at 9-1
ATS in its last ten road games, there is little edge on either side of
this game. The only meeting between these two in the last decade
was last year's 45-13 Tulsa romp in Skelley Stadium. Thinking East
Carolina revenge? The Pirates are a woeful 2-25 SU in their last
27 games against avenging teams. Tulsa 28-3-1 ATS in its last 32
road wins. End of math lesson.
SMU over Marshall by 10
The once-proud Marshall football program has fallen on hard
times. The Herd is 3-10 SU and ATS in its last 13 road games and
has yet to cover a road game in Conference USA. They are also
riding an 0-6 ATS losing skein. Smu isn't Southern Cal but the
Mustangs are 43-6 ATS in their last 49 SU wins, including ten in
a row, and Marshall is just 6-24 ATS in its last 30 SU losses. Better
offense and better defense usually is a clue to who wins football
games. SMU has both.
4 BEST BET
Arkansas surprised Auburn and the nation with its impressive
effort on the Plains. We saw signs of Auburn weaknesses
in the South Carolina game, particularly on defense and,
apparently, so did the Razorback coaching staff. Be sure that
Urban Meyer has noticed. Be equally sure that Auburn will try as
hard as it can play to save their SEC lives. It may not be enough.
Here's the problem for Aubbie fans: Florida is 10-0-1 ATS in
its last 11 as an SEC underdog. Couple that with an inevitable
'bubble burst' looming in this game for the Tigers and we'll be
forced to do the dog with the Gators. End note: the last time
the Gators took on the Tigers at Jordan Hare Stadium, Florida
was a 23-point favorite (they lost, 23-20). Not today.
Florida over AUBURN by 10
5 BEST BET
Ucla's transformation has been amazing. Their offense has
downshifted this year but the Bruin defense has saved the
day. They are allowing a meager 222 yards and 12 points per
game while ascending to 2nd best in the nation. That's an
improvement of 266 YARDS PER GAME - stunning, to say the
least. They'll need to show up today as Oregon has averaged
over 33 points per game at home since 2002. Still, the Ducks
are just 2-12 ATS as home chalk against winning teams and
are another 'bubble-burst' commodity on this week's card.
No quacking here. Not with a double-digit defensive dog that
has won 13 of its last 15 games SU on this fi eld. Bruins get the
top call again this week.
Ucla over OREGON by 7
California over WASHINGTON ST by 3
The Cal offense was stuffed at Tennessee in the season opener
but, since then, has averaged more than 43 points per game.
Washington State won't lay down and let the Bears go up and
down the fi eld. The Cougars are 5-0 ATS in the last fi ve meetings
in this series and have covered six of the last seven against Cal on
this fi eld. The Puma is certainly worth a look here, especially with
the Bears coming off that revenge romp over Oregon (Bears 0-5
ATS away after taking on the Ducks).
GEORGIA over Vanderbilt by 13
Vandy has surprisingly been dominant on the road. Not SU, but
against the spread. The Commodores are 10-1 ATS in their last 11
tries as road underdogs and 20-4 ATS in the second of back-toback
road games. Enter Georgia, a team that was averaging 15
ppg in conference play this season (before Tennessee). They had
also allowed only three TD's this season (before Tennessee). That
all imploded in a mind-boggling 2nd half performance against
the Vols. Although the Dawgs have a pair of 30-point wins over
Vandy in the last two meetings here, they are 6-20-1 ATS at home
when scoring less than 21. They didn't endure a 'bubble-burst' last
week, they suffered a Tsunami!
Ohio St over MICHIGAN ST by 20
This could be a dangerous game for the Buckeyes or it could be
another walk in the park for the nation's Number One team.
It all depends on how Michigan State responds. Since a loss to
Penn State last October, Ohio State has won and covered eight
conference games in a row with all but one being a double-digit
win. They are also on a 13-0 SU & 12-1 ATS winning run of late.
The Spartans were 31-15 ATS as underdogs with revenge before
last week's game against Michigan. They will have to be at the
top of their game today if they hope to extend that record.
Especially after taking a whiff of our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE
WEEK.
Florida St over DUKE by 24
Florida State had its share of diffi culty putting points on the
board early this season. Just as that problem was being rectifi ed,
the Seminoles have suffered a rash of defensive injuries. None of
that matters against hapless Duke. If you remember, a Virginia
team that was averaging just 11 ppg before going to Durham, beat
the Dukies 37-0. We wouldn't bet on the Seminoles to duplicate
that result but to bet otherwise would be downright foolish,
especially considering the Sems' 5-0 ATS mark in road games off
a loss when taking on losing opposition.
WASHINGTON over Oregon St by 13
Oregon State completes this year's Washington perfecta at the
home of the suddenly capable Huskies. Washington's 1-14 SU mark
in Pac Ten games coming into this year is no longer worthy of
attention in light of the back-to-back Husky wins over UCLA and
Arizona earlier this year. Oregon State, at 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS
in its last 12 road games against winning teams doesn't fi gure to
improve that record against the revenge minded Huskies.
KENT ST over Toledo by 7
At the beginning of the season, if you had told us that, at this
point, Kent would be undefeated in the conference and Toledo
would still be looking for its fi rst win, we would have ridiculed
you mercilessly. That's because the Rockets would have been a
6-point favorite here in Game One. The truth is that Kent has
treated its three MAC opponents mercilessly. After a hard fought
win at Miami, the Flashes buried Bowling Green on the road, then
shuttled Akron's division hopes in Kent. Toledo is 0-13-1 ATS in
its last 14 MAC losses.
BOWLING GREEN over E Michigan by 8
Bowling Green is showing a few signs of life now that Anthony
Turner has returned to the lineup at QB. The Falcons are 10-2 ATS
at home off back-to-back road games and have beaten Eastern
Michigan on this fi eld by 42 and 21 points in the last two meetings.
Eastern has not shown any signs of life lately and there are no
resuscitators in sight. Nevertheless, we'll defer to the SMART BOX
and turn in our Bowling shoes for today.
OKLAHOMA over Iowa St by 17
Like Texas, Oklahoma has no problem rebounding from the
Red River Shoot-out. The Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last six
following games with the Cows. Not all is good in Norman, though.
Oklahoma, which used to have an impenetrable home fi eld, is just
22-34 ATS in its last 56 league home games. Iowa State, meanwhile,
is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 tries as road underdogs and surely
remembers the last two games vs OU both 43 point losses.
3 BEST BET
Sonny Lubick, the Colorado State coach, said after his team
whipped Fresno on the Bulldogs' home fi eld, "They have QB
problems. That was the difference tonight". Friends, the last
team you want to play if you have QB problems is Hawaii.
Colt Brennan is as good as there is at the position in this
conference and the Rainbows are actually playing a little
defense. The Pineapples well remember their last visit here
a 70-14 loss. They let Nevada back-door them last week
with two last TD's. That won't happen here today against
the toothless Bulldogs who are 0-22 ATS in their last 22 SU
conference losses! Again.
Hawaii over FRESNO ST by 14
Arizona over STANFORD by 1
Easily the two most disappointing teams in the Pac Ten, Arizona
and Stanford lock up in a battle for last place in the league.
Before going to Pasadena last week, Arizona had just seven
wins in its previous 36 games and the Cats are favored on the
road for the fi rst time in four years. In fact, they are 9-19 ATS as
RF's, including 2-11 ATS if they are a sub .600 squad. Stanford,
though, has been outscored by 24 ppg this season and hasn't
visited the winner's circle once. This is a game that deserves no
further commentary.
SAN JOSE ST over Utah St by 17
Point-starved Utah State probably fi gured, at the beginning of
the season, that this was a chance for a rare road win. Talk about
broken dreams. San Jose has come alive behind Adam Trafalis
who is completing a phenomenal 77% of his passes on the season.
With USU at 4-19 ATS in its last 23 SU losses and Jose at 10-1 ATS at
home against opponents who are off back-to-back losses, there's
only one way to go in this, if you have to go somewhere. Spartans
get their revenge.
RICE over Uab by 1
Rice doesn't get to spend a lot of time at home. This game follows a
three-game road trip with another road triplet dead ahead. Expect
the Owls to play hard in a rare home appearance. Since Chase
Clement returned to the lineup, the Owls have become dangerous
to teams not equipped to defend a spread offense. That's perilous
for road favored UAB who must buck Rice's 15-2-1 ATS mark as
conference home dogs. Blazers averaging 17 ppg.
ILLINOIS over Ohio U by 3
How do you fi gure this Ohio team out? Apparently, we have no
idea. We do know that the Bobbies are 2-11 ATS in their last 13
road games, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games and
1-10 SU against Big Ten competition... but again, we're left with
trying to determine which Ohio team will show up for the game.
Bear in mind that Illinois head coach Ron Zook is the answer to
this week's Trivia Teaser on page 2.
LOUISVILLE over Cincinnati by 31
If you watched the fi rst 22 minutes of Louisville's game against
Middle Tennessee last Friday, you would wonder why the Cardinals
are favored by so many points. If you watched Cincinnati battle
Ohio State and Virginia Tech on the road deep into the second
half, you would wonder why the Bearcats are such a big underdog.
Then you see Louie at 7-1 ATS in the last eight in this series and at
13-1 ATS in its last 14 as home chalk. No wonder.
S MISSISSIPPI over Houston by 7
Nice numbers here. Houston is 2-8 ATS between home games
and 9-20 ATS in its last 29 on the road, including 4-13 ATS as an
underdog into revenge. Southern Miss is a perfect 11-0 ATS in its
last 11 revenge games when coming off a double-digit loss and
11-2 ATS at home in its last 13 against conference opponents who
are off back-to-back SU wins. Houston, you have a problem.
KANSAS over Oklahoma St by 1
The Jayhawks are feisty to say the least and they certainly don't
fear anyone who dares to make the trip to Lawrence. If they did
have any trepidation about an invading opponent, it would be
Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have covered six in a row in the
series and NINE in a row on this fi eld. OSU's last two wins against
Kansas were by 35 and 23 points. For sure, Kansas wants to start
evening things out, but the Jays haven't done it in a long time.
Don't know why it starts here today.
Texas Tech over COLORADO by 6
Following that thrilling win at Texas A&M and the battle with
undefeated Missouri, Texas Tech ventures into dangerous waters
here. The Red Raiders are certainly not the best road favorites in
the world. In their last nine chances as road chalk, the Bandits
have one cover. Unfortunately for Buffalo backers, Colorado has
now lost 10 games in a row (matches longest in school history)
and the Bison are just 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 SU losses. They
are, however, 12-4 ATS as conference home dogs of more than
three points when playing with revenge against a .666 or better
opponent. We'll take the points...
TEXAS over Baylor by 31
First things fi rst! Texas will NOT have a letdown after last week's
Oklahoma game. Not according to the history book. The Longhorns
are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in the eight games immediately following
the Red River war. One other thing we know. Baylor, 1-40 SU on
the conference road before last week's trip to Colorado and losers
of its last fi ve against Texas by an average of 45 points, will not
win this game. The only question left is the cover.
LA TECH over Idaho by 3
Idaho seems to be improved over recent Vandal teams (read:
Dennis Erickson) but this is still a grueling trip, one that hasn't
yielded many pleasant results. Other than a puzzling 49-14 loss to
Rice in 2003, Tech is a perfect 12-0 SU in home conference games
and the Bulldogs have covered six in a row here against .500 or
worse opposition. Idaho isn't a road warrior, for sure, with just
six covers in its last 19 opportunities as road dogs. Not lookin' for
number seven here.
LSU over Kentucky by 28
With LSU stuffi ng everybody that comes to town (allowing 10
points per game), we don't think Kentucky is going to post a
bunch of points. If that translates into the Wildcats scoring 14
or less, then the LSU window is the one you want. Kentucky is a
lowly 14-47-1 ATS when held to 14 or less. The problem is that
LSU rarely gets excited about Kentucky games. The Bengals are
just 2-8-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
TEXAS EL PASO over Tulane by 16
With Tulane just 1-10 SU in its last 11 road games against .500 or
better opposition, we must consider El Paso's 38-8 ATS mark in its
last 46 SU wins. We also have to take a look at Tulane's 1-13 ATS
mark in its last 14 SU defeats and a 1-10 ATS mark in games where
the Greenies have allowed 28 or more (UTEP is averaging 38 ppg
in its last 19 home games). The problem we have with the Miners
is those two games against Houston and Tulsa dead ahead.
New Mexico over UNLV by 6
Two teams headed in different directions and the one on the
wrong road has all the bad numbers. UNLV is 2-11 ATS in its last
13 tries as dogs of plus seven or less and 10-23 ATS in its last 33
conference home games, including a 31-3 loss as a dog in its last
home game. New Mexico, on the other hand, is 8-1-1 ATS in its last
ten road games against avenging teams and getting better.
MIAMI FL over Florida Int'l by 31
One way to cure a sick season is to schedule a Sun Belt team at
home, particularly a winless one off an overtime loss. This line
may come as a surprise to you after Miami laid big numbers to
both North Carolina and Houston and struggled, but the Canes
are dying to cream somebody and neighbor from the next county
over looks to be the candidate.
SOUTHERN CAL over Arizona St by 14
As you may have already noticed, the SMART BOX says to take
Arizona State and the points. The Sun Devils are 8-2 ATS in their
last ten chances as underdogs off a bye week, but the rest of ASU's
numbers are not good, especially those produced in its last two
games, a 28-point loss to Cal and a 35-point loss to Oregon at
home. USC is 19-3 ATS in its last 22 games against an opponent off
a loss and 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games. Take the points.
GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
PENN ST over Michigan by 3
Penn State is 10-1 SU at home (only loss to OSU) in its last
ten games and fi gures to have a huge emotional edge today.
In its last four games, Michigan won three straight revenge
games against Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Minnesota, and
played bitter rival Michigan State last week in the battle for
the Paul Bunyan trophy. Revenge is Penn State's, in spades.
The Lions' only loss last season was at Michigan on the last
play of the game. Joe Pa's troops are 6-0 ATS as home dogs off
back-back-wins and 5-0 ATS at home with revenge. Only the
grass in Happy Valley will be higher than the Nits today!
UPSET
MEMPHIS over Arkansas St by 4
The Memphis Tigers still have yet to cash an ATS ticket this season.
Now, in the river war, we're asked to consider them as doubledigit
favorites We don't think so, especially with former defensive
coordinator Joe Lee Dunn no longer on the sidelines. The Indians
are a solid 8-2 ATS on the road against a foe off back-to-back losses
and have already held two foes to season-low yardage.
TROY over LA Monroe by 14
With Monroe's road record (12-59 SU in lined games) against Troy's
home record (35-3 SU last 38 as host), it would seem a foregone
conclusion that the Trojans are going to win this game. Add
Monroe's 2-10 ATS log against avenging opponents and Troy's
4-1 ATS mark in its last fi ve as home chalk and it looks like we'll
be climbing into the wooden horse for this one especially with
the SMART BOX lining up with us
Boise St over N MEXICO ST by 20
When was the last time a 500-yard offense suited up as a 20-point
home dog? We have no way of determining the answer but we're
not ready to test that idea with this defenseless bunch. Boise State
is a scintillating 52-17 ATS when scoring 28 or more and the Aggies
have given up 38 ppg in their last fi fteen lined games, all losses.
Moreover, NMSU hasn't covered the spread against a WAC foe in
its last nine tries. Still, 50-point loss revenge and a high-octane
offense make this tempting.
WASHINGTON over Tennessee by 7
While it seems impossible to recommend Tennessee under any
circumstances, we're not sure we want the Redskins who are
coming off an emotional overtime win against Jacksonville
followed by last week's blood battle with the Giants. With mighty
Indianapolis up next, who could blame the Tribe for taking it easy
here? Those considerations plus the fact that we rarely lay doubles
in the NFL, will keep us on the Titans' sidelines in this one.
3 BEST BET
With Chris Henry out and defensive injuries mounting,
Cincinnati is not as formidable as it was at the beginning of
the season. It would seem that, injuries aside, Carson Palmer
has a huge edge over rookie Bruce Gradkowski at QB and a
certifi ed edge in the running game. However, the Bengals
have allowed season-high yardage to EVERY OPPONENT
they have faced this season. And, we feel Gradkowski will
not surrender his starting job anytime in the near future.
He's a keeper. With the Bucs dressing up as UGLY PIGS (home
dogs who open the season 0-4) and standing 8-1 ATS as nondivision
home dogs, we'll ride this pig to the pen.
TAMPA BAY over Cincinnati by 6
DALLAS over Houston by 13
The Texans have had two weeks to enjoy their fi rst win of the
season but that elation is in peril here. Houie is a perfect 0-7 ATS
in its last seven tries as a non-conference road dog and 3-9 ATS as
underdogs off an upset win. Dallas is 7-1-2 ATS as favorites against
rested opponents and 6-1 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back home
games. Don't worry about Dallas having an Eagle hangover. The
Pokes are a perfect 6-0 ATS after playing in Philly. Still, we're not
advocates of laying big numbers in the NFL.
5 BEST BET
The Saints are no longer a gimme win in this league and
it's not because of Reggie Bush. Drew Brees has instilled a
confi dence in the Saint offense that was never there before
and the New Orleans defense is playing its best ball in years.
Still, this will be a test for the Holy Ones. Philadelphia has
dominated the series with fi ve straight covers but that goes
out the window in deference to a huge anticipated letdown
following last week's battle royale with Dallas. It was THE
GAME on Philly's schedule this year and they got what they
wanted a big win. It doesn't hurt knowing that the Eagles are
0-13 ATS as favorites in games after the Cowboys when playing
off back-to-back victories! Divine intervention, again.
NEW ORLEANS over Philadelphia by 10
4 BEST BET
Bad numbers abound for the Seahawks in this NFC West battle.
Seattle is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week
and 2-9 ATS following its fi rst loss of the season in the past 11
years. The series favorite is 1-5 ATS. Seattle has yet to score a TD
on the road this season and they are still the defending Super
Bowl loser. These guys are 12-28-2 ATS when laying points into
a .333 or better foe seeking revenge. The Rams have taken on
a new personality and attitude under new coach Scott Linehan.
We like it and their chances here today.
ST LOUIS over Seattle by 7
Chicago over ARIZONA by 10
Although the Bears have failed to cover six times in a row on
Monday nights, we like their 8-2 ATS mark against NFC West teams
and their 8-0 SU record (5-1-2 ATS) in their last eight games against
losing teams. Zona is 7-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back home
games to counter the Chicago numbers. Rookie QB Matt Leinart
will defi nitely be facing the best defense he's ever seen so, unless
you think Zona can win the game, you probably should stay away
from the Cards (0-8-1 ATS last nine home losses).
Carolina over BALTIMORE by 6
Finally, after three straight weeks of laying signifi cant lumber, the
Panthers return to their best role the underdog. Carolina is 19-4
ATS in their last 23 tries as the short with an amazing 15 SU wins in
those 23 games. Baltimore, though, is 7-0 ATS as non-conference
chalk and has covered fi ve of its last six October home games. The
difference here, though, is the Panthers have a lot of ground to
make up and a defense to get it done.
Miami over NY JETS by 3
The Jets have had Miami's number for so long it seems automatic to
post them on our ticket when the Dolphins are in town. New York
is a dominating 13-2-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings and certainly
has played better than the fl oundering Sea Mammals. Miami
revenge has meant little or nothing in this series and not much
more anywhere in the division. After last week's game against New
England, Miami stands 1-8-1 ATS in this role. While the trends point
to the Flyboys, we'll order up some Dolphin as it not's often you
fi nd a dog with over 100 yards the better defense in this league.
San Diego over SAN FRANCISCO by 6
The Chargers have the numbers in this one. San Diego is 9-2 ATS
in its last 11 on the non-conference road, 6-0 ATS in the fi rst of
BB road games and 7-3 ATS as road chalk of three or more points.
Although the Forty-Niners have covered fi ve of the last seven in
the series, the last cover was six years ago and, as we all know, San
Francisco's fortunes have slipped a little since then. The problem is
we won't lay a price with a team away from home on the heels of
a win over the defending Super Bowl champs. Can't do it.
PITTSBURGH over Kansas City by 13
After opening the campaign 1-3, the Steelers need this game like
blood. The last time a defending Super Bowl champ started 1-3
('99 Broncos), they ended the year 6-10. Not a good omen for
Pittsburgh. Cowher's crew is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games with
the Chiefs and the last eight meetings were in Kansas City. The last
one, a 41-20 thumping by the Tribe, is still etched in the minds of
the Pittsburgh players. Two stats involving scheduling dynamics
make the case here. The Steelers are 6-1 ATS at home before backto-
back road games and KC is 0-6 ATS as road dogs with a home
game next. Steel lost their last game at home. Not this.
DENVER over Oakland by 14
No reason to recommend Oakland who is a perfect 0-6 ATS in
its last six division revenge games, but not sure we want Denver
coming off that brutal war with Baltimore. Yes, the Broncos are
12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 division home games and have covered
fi ve of the last six in this series, but they are also 2-7-1 ATS as
double-digit chalk. In our database, which goes back to 1980,
this series has had DD favorites just three times (high line -13.5).
Just too many points.
ATLANTA over NY Giants by 3
The Atlanta running game continues to be unconscious. The
Falcons are averaging 234 ground yards a game, an ominous
number for the Giants. The G-Men are a paltry 6-26 ATS when
allowing 150 rushing yards in their last 32 chances, including just
2-14 ATS on the road. So why aren't we "rushing" to Atlanta here?
Because the Falcons are a perfect 0-9 ATS in their last nine home
games off a SU home win. That's why.
DETROIT over Buffalo by 6
Mike Martz has the Lion offense playing much better than it has in
the last half-decade. Now, if defensive whiz Rod Marinelli can shore
up the stop unit and quit giving up games in the fi nal stanza, Detroit
has a chance to win some games. Buffalo is 7-3-1 ATS in the 2nd of
BB road games and has looked better so far this season. Looks can
be deceiving, though, as evidenced by a full yard advantage for the
Lions in net yards per rush. We like home dogs with that kind of
edge. If they do puppy, up we'll walk with this UGLY PIG.
3* HAWAII
4* FLORIDA
5* UCLA
3* BUCCANEERS
4* RAMS
5* SAINTS
3* 49ers UNDER
4* Rams OVER
5* Falcons UNDER
OF THE WEEK
Marc's Awesome Angle Of The Week
Wins 67% In PLAYBOOK Last Four Years!
ATS W-L Record
Since 1980:
15-1-1
(94%)
POMPOUS
PIGS PLAY ON any NFL Game 5
or later winless dog of
more than 7 points versus
a non-division opponent
off a SU & ATS loss.
A Weekly Insight Into The Art Of Sports Handicapping
BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW by Marc Lawrence
NO WAY, JOSE...
PLAY ON:
TENNESSEE TITANS
As we continue to extol the virtues of playing with rest
during the college football season, lets expand our look
into GAME SIX. It seems teams taking on a conference
opponent fare rather well with a breather as evidenced by
an overall 121-98-1 ATS in all games since 1980.
Bring them in off a SU loss and they improve to 69-47 ATS.
We fi nd four teams in that role this week Arizona State,
Eastern Michigan, Troy and Virginia Tech.
A rather nice tightener comes about when we bring the
opponent in off a win, as GAME SIX rested teams playing
off a SU loss are 39-19 ATS when taking on a foe off a SU
win. Arizona State, Troy and Virginia Tech answer the bell
this week.
The best of all roles occurs when our GAME SIX rested team
is off back-to-back losses and taking on an opponent off a
win as these teams are 18-5 ATS. We fi nd two teams in that
role this week Arizona State and Troy.
TEAMS KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS
The Spartans of Michigan State
are just 1-29 ATS in their last 30 SU losses
when playing off a SU loss.
CLEMSON over Temple by 44
Clemson dodged several bullets in Winston-Salem last week and
limped (and we mean limped - several injuries for Clemmie) home
with a 27-17 win. The Tigers don't have to worry about bullets here.
Temple isn't armed. All they have to do is win the game and stay
healthy with the former being the easiest part to accomplish. You
know we aren't going to lay what could be the highest number of
the season, not with a revenger against Georgia Tech on deck.
Virginia Tech over BOSTON COLL by 3
Normally we'd be all over a BC team that stands 6-1 ATS as a
home dog against a foe off a loss. That is until we checked out
the Hokies' numbers, and what the SMART BOX had to say. The
Hokies are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a
double-digit loss, 8-1 ATS on the conference road versus avenging
teams, and haven't lost three straight to the pointspread in the
regular season since 2002. Boston College is a poor 0-5 ATS in its
last fi ve home revenge games.
AIR FORCE over Colorado St by 1
Air Force wanted that Navy game as badly as any team has
ever wanted a win. Because they didn't get it, don't look for an
enthusiastic performance against the Rams. Colorado State is an
amazing 20-4-1 ATS as pick or dog in conference play and is a
perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six Thursday games. Air Force is 9-16 ATS
as a favorite with revenge. The Force was an underdog in each
meeting (7 of them) since 1998. The Pilots probably shouldn't be
favored here.
Pittsburgh over C FLORIDA by 10
The Golden Knights fi nally got rewarded for their courageous play
this season with a win at Marshall. Sure, Pitt is a step up in class
from the fl oundering Herd but UCF doesn't see it that way. It's just
another opportunity to play and win. Sadly, the Knights are 1-9
ATS in their last ten games against Big East teams and 2-11 ATS
in their last 13 non-conference games. Problem, though, is Pitt's
putrid 2-15 ATS mark as double-digit road chalk. Yech.
W VIRGINIA over Syracuse by 27
Syracuse had a chance to make a statement Saturday but couldn't
fi nd the processor and was unable to go over the top against Pitt.
After fi ve straight covers to start the season, the Orange went
down hard at home. Now that the peel is off, Syracuse might
become pulp in Morgantown. The Orange is just 4-20 ATS in its
last 24 as road dogs while WVU, on a 16-1 SU run, is a perfect 12-0
ATS in its last 12 wins against Syracuse. White Lightning.
Purdue over NORTHWESTERN by 7
These two Big Ten teams got crushed on the road last week, both
losing big for the second straight week. Who bounces back? Since
Northwestern has no healthy quarterbacks, not much of a defense
and a raw rookie as head coach, we have to lean toward Purdue.
The problem is that the Boilers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road
games and are allowing 30 points per game in their last 17 games,
hardly good credentials for road chalk.
WISCONSIN over Minnesota by 10
Last week saw another blowout win for Wisconsin and another
heartbreaking loss for Minnesota. The Gophers were unable to
convert the extra point after an overtime touchdown and lost
when Penn State did. This, after battling back courageously to
tie the game. Wisconsin, meanwhile, had another breezy day
against a Northwestern team that offered little resistance on
either side of the ball. Minnesota will have a few ohms in its
travel bag. Interestingly, though, they are 7-0 ATS in games after
tackling Penn State.
Iowa over INDIANA by 21
Illinois let the Hoosiers drive nearly the length of the fi eld with
no time-outs and less than two minutes to go and saw a walk
off fi eld goal go through the uprights while their hopes of a
two-game winning streak went out the window. Iowa will not
be so charitable to the Hoosiers. Indiana's defense is still the
worst in the league and will not be able to stop the Hawkeyes.
The Hoosiers have allowed 28 or more points in 41 of its last 47
conference losses. Iowa is 21-0 ATS in its last 21 games when it
scores 28 or more.
NC STATE over Wake Forest by 10
Wake Forest was on the verge of a huge upset as it lined up for
a fi eld goal to extend its fourth quarter lead to 20-3. But the
snap was botched and Clemson picked it up and ran it back for
a touchdown. The Tigers ended up winning 27-17. Talk about a
'bubble-burst'. We don't know how a team can come back from
that kind of heartbreak but, with NC State off a pair of last-minute
wins over Boston College and Florida State, the Deacons have the
right setup to rebound. We don't feel they will.
VIRGINIA over Maryland by 3
Confl icting numbers abound in this game. Virginia is 11-1 ATS in
its last 12 home games with revenge, 9-1 ATS the last 10 tries as
a home dog and the host is 6-1 ATS in this series. The Cavs are
just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games with the Terrapins. To be
fair, most of Virginia's positive numbers were accomplished with
teams far better than this one but the Cavs are still hard to beat in
Charlottesville. Bottom line is Maryland was a 14-point dog in their
last visit here two years ago and failed to score a single point.
S Florida over N CAROLINA by 7
Carolina didn't play that badly against Miami but the offense
couldn't get anything done and the Heels fell to their seventh
straight ATS loss. Outside the conference, North Carolina is 9-18
ATS at home. South Florida has a QB that will be a star in the
coming years and a lightning fast defense. That means the Bulls
can be competitive here. The victory starved Tar Heels remember
holding Virginia Tech to a season-low 224 yards on this fi eld earlier
this year, but that seems like eons ago.
Miami OH over BUFFALO by 6
Two of the worst teams in the league meet in front of tens of
fans in Buffalo in what may be the MAC's most insignifi cant
game of the year. Miami has won the last four meetings by
the incredible average of 47-6, two of those wins with Ben
Roethlisberger pitching for the RedHawks. We don't expect
anything of that nature in this game but we do believe that
Miami, a team that has won games like this, will prevail against
Buffalo, a team that hasn't. Remember, the Bulls lost by THIRTY
to Ball State last week.
C MICHIGAN over Ball St by 10
Ball State's romp by the Falls notwithstanding, the Cardinals are
not the greatest road team in the universe. Since hitting the Big
Board in 1998, Ball State has nine road wins in 40 tries. With Central
standing at 23-4 ATS in its last 27 SU wins, the Gonads better fi nd
a way to come out on top. Nate Davis, the MAC's top recruit last
year, has ignited the Ball State offense but it's the defense that
stifl es the team. Stay cool. Don't go Nuts here.
CONNECTICUT over Army by 3
Army got the taste of that drubbing by Rice out of its mouth by
abusing VMI last week but the taste of three straight defeats at the
hands of Connecticut (by an average score of 45-12) still remains.
Army has a chance. UConn is averaging a meager 14.7 points per
game against lined opposition in 2006 and the Black Knights are
15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games when the opponent fails to
hit the 21-point mark. That's a realistic possibility here.
NAVY over Rutgers by 7
Navy continues to shine on the road and remains one of the best
pointspread teams in the nation. Since November of 2002, the
Middies are 27-11-1 ATS including 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games
with revenge. Conversely, Rutgers is 1-9-1 ATS on the road after
a week off and 0-13 ATS as an underdog of more than +2 against
avenging opponents. The only saving grace for the Scarlet Knights
is the memory of a 54-21 pasting taken on this fi eld in 2004. Then
again, 6-0 road teams fi nd rest makes rust in Game Seven as they
are 0-5 ATS in this role when taking on a .700 or better opponent.
Navy sinks another victim.
TEXAS A&M over Missouri by 3
The Aggies won in the last seconds at Kansas and the Jayhawks
suffered yet another heartbreaking loss as the A&M resurgence
continues. They dress up as dogs for the fi rst time this season,
a role in which head coach Dennis Franchione is 9-4 ATS in his
college career. The Aggies are 12-4 SUATS at home when hosting an
unbeaten foe and also 7-0 ATS as home dogs against an opponent
off a SUATS win. The 6-0 Tigers have shown they can play. The
question is how will they react if (when) A&M takes a lead in this
contest, as Missouri hasn't trailed in a game this season. All good
things come to an end, and when it does, it's usually in a setting
like College Station.
Nebraska over KANSAS ST by 8
Nebraska used to waltz in here and run through about four or
fi ve levels of players before returning to Lincoln with another
convincing win. From 1981 to 1996, Nebbish won seven games in a
row here by an average of 35 points. In their last four trips, though,
the Cornhuskers are 0-4 SU with the last two being losses of 36
and 24 points. Kansas exposed the Nebraska defense. It remains
to be seen if K-State's freshman QB can do the same.
N Illinois over W MICHIGAN by 3
We thought Western Michigan would run Ohio into the ground
last Saturday but it turned out the wrong way. We have no
presumption that WMU will outrun Northern Illinois... nobody
does. Not only that, the Broncos have been unable to come close
to NIU in the last three meetings with losses averaging 28 points
each. Western wants to throw it, NIU wants to run it. The only thing
theY have in common is that they both lost to schizoid Ohio.
ALABAMA over Mississippi by 15
Don't think for a minute that Alabama didn't notice the huge
result from upstate last week and don't think for a minute that
Alabama isn't taking Mississippi seriously. The Tide has covered
six of the last seven against Ole Miss but, going after last week's
Duke game, Bama is 1-12 ATS at home against losing teams and
1-8 ATS in its last nine as home chalk. Still, Ole Miss has no wins
and one cover on the SEC road under Ed Orgeron. The Elephant's
poor spread mark on this fi eld brings this game cheap.
WYOMING over Utah by 3
Utah has won the last fi ve games with Wyoming by an average
of 23 points and appears to be the superior team once again this
year. But, the Cowboys are 9-3 ATS as pick or dog at home in their
last 12 tries and are playing better defensively than they have in
years. Last week's road win at New Mexico can only bolster their
confi dence. Utah is 13-5 SU & 11-6-1 ATS in its last 18 road games.
A win here, though, is hardly a certainty. Marc's BETCHA DIDN'T
KNOW article on page 2 lends solid support the Cowboys' way. We
see the series host improving to 6-0 ATS. Grab the points!
Tulsa over E CAROLINA by 3
Something's gotta give here. With East Carolina being one of the
hottest pointspread teams in the country and Tulsa standing at 9-1
ATS in its last ten road games, there is little edge on either side of
this game. The only meeting between these two in the last decade
was last year's 45-13 Tulsa romp in Skelley Stadium. Thinking East
Carolina revenge? The Pirates are a woeful 2-25 SU in their last
27 games against avenging teams. Tulsa 28-3-1 ATS in its last 32
road wins. End of math lesson.
SMU over Marshall by 10
The once-proud Marshall football program has fallen on hard
times. The Herd is 3-10 SU and ATS in its last 13 road games and
has yet to cover a road game in Conference USA. They are also
riding an 0-6 ATS losing skein. Smu isn't Southern Cal but the
Mustangs are 43-6 ATS in their last 49 SU wins, including ten in
a row, and Marshall is just 6-24 ATS in its last 30 SU losses. Better
offense and better defense usually is a clue to who wins football
games. SMU has both.
4 BEST BET
Arkansas surprised Auburn and the nation with its impressive
effort on the Plains. We saw signs of Auburn weaknesses
in the South Carolina game, particularly on defense and,
apparently, so did the Razorback coaching staff. Be sure that
Urban Meyer has noticed. Be equally sure that Auburn will try as
hard as it can play to save their SEC lives. It may not be enough.
Here's the problem for Aubbie fans: Florida is 10-0-1 ATS in
its last 11 as an SEC underdog. Couple that with an inevitable
'bubble burst' looming in this game for the Tigers and we'll be
forced to do the dog with the Gators. End note: the last time
the Gators took on the Tigers at Jordan Hare Stadium, Florida
was a 23-point favorite (they lost, 23-20). Not today.
Florida over AUBURN by 10
5 BEST BET
Ucla's transformation has been amazing. Their offense has
downshifted this year but the Bruin defense has saved the
day. They are allowing a meager 222 yards and 12 points per
game while ascending to 2nd best in the nation. That's an
improvement of 266 YARDS PER GAME - stunning, to say the
least. They'll need to show up today as Oregon has averaged
over 33 points per game at home since 2002. Still, the Ducks
are just 2-12 ATS as home chalk against winning teams and
are another 'bubble-burst' commodity on this week's card.
No quacking here. Not with a double-digit defensive dog that
has won 13 of its last 15 games SU on this fi eld. Bruins get the
top call again this week.
Ucla over OREGON by 7
California over WASHINGTON ST by 3
The Cal offense was stuffed at Tennessee in the season opener
but, since then, has averaged more than 43 points per game.
Washington State won't lay down and let the Bears go up and
down the fi eld. The Cougars are 5-0 ATS in the last fi ve meetings
in this series and have covered six of the last seven against Cal on
this fi eld. The Puma is certainly worth a look here, especially with
the Bears coming off that revenge romp over Oregon (Bears 0-5
ATS away after taking on the Ducks).
GEORGIA over Vanderbilt by 13
Vandy has surprisingly been dominant on the road. Not SU, but
against the spread. The Commodores are 10-1 ATS in their last 11
tries as road underdogs and 20-4 ATS in the second of back-toback
road games. Enter Georgia, a team that was averaging 15
ppg in conference play this season (before Tennessee). They had
also allowed only three TD's this season (before Tennessee). That
all imploded in a mind-boggling 2nd half performance against
the Vols. Although the Dawgs have a pair of 30-point wins over
Vandy in the last two meetings here, they are 6-20-1 ATS at home
when scoring less than 21. They didn't endure a 'bubble-burst' last
week, they suffered a Tsunami!
Ohio St over MICHIGAN ST by 20
This could be a dangerous game for the Buckeyes or it could be
another walk in the park for the nation's Number One team.
It all depends on how Michigan State responds. Since a loss to
Penn State last October, Ohio State has won and covered eight
conference games in a row with all but one being a double-digit
win. They are also on a 13-0 SU & 12-1 ATS winning run of late.
The Spartans were 31-15 ATS as underdogs with revenge before
last week's game against Michigan. They will have to be at the
top of their game today if they hope to extend that record.
Especially after taking a whiff of our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE
WEEK.
Florida St over DUKE by 24
Florida State had its share of diffi culty putting points on the
board early this season. Just as that problem was being rectifi ed,
the Seminoles have suffered a rash of defensive injuries. None of
that matters against hapless Duke. If you remember, a Virginia
team that was averaging just 11 ppg before going to Durham, beat
the Dukies 37-0. We wouldn't bet on the Seminoles to duplicate
that result but to bet otherwise would be downright foolish,
especially considering the Sems' 5-0 ATS mark in road games off
a loss when taking on losing opposition.
WASHINGTON over Oregon St by 13
Oregon State completes this year's Washington perfecta at the
home of the suddenly capable Huskies. Washington's 1-14 SU mark
in Pac Ten games coming into this year is no longer worthy of
attention in light of the back-to-back Husky wins over UCLA and
Arizona earlier this year. Oregon State, at 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS
in its last 12 road games against winning teams doesn't fi gure to
improve that record against the revenge minded Huskies.
KENT ST over Toledo by 7
At the beginning of the season, if you had told us that, at this
point, Kent would be undefeated in the conference and Toledo
would still be looking for its fi rst win, we would have ridiculed
you mercilessly. That's because the Rockets would have been a
6-point favorite here in Game One. The truth is that Kent has
treated its three MAC opponents mercilessly. After a hard fought
win at Miami, the Flashes buried Bowling Green on the road, then
shuttled Akron's division hopes in Kent. Toledo is 0-13-1 ATS in
its last 14 MAC losses.
BOWLING GREEN over E Michigan by 8
Bowling Green is showing a few signs of life now that Anthony
Turner has returned to the lineup at QB. The Falcons are 10-2 ATS
at home off back-to-back road games and have beaten Eastern
Michigan on this fi eld by 42 and 21 points in the last two meetings.
Eastern has not shown any signs of life lately and there are no
resuscitators in sight. Nevertheless, we'll defer to the SMART BOX
and turn in our Bowling shoes for today.
OKLAHOMA over Iowa St by 17
Like Texas, Oklahoma has no problem rebounding from the
Red River Shoot-out. The Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last six
following games with the Cows. Not all is good in Norman, though.
Oklahoma, which used to have an impenetrable home fi eld, is just
22-34 ATS in its last 56 league home games. Iowa State, meanwhile,
is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 tries as road underdogs and surely
remembers the last two games vs OU both 43 point losses.
3 BEST BET
Sonny Lubick, the Colorado State coach, said after his team
whipped Fresno on the Bulldogs' home fi eld, "They have QB
problems. That was the difference tonight". Friends, the last
team you want to play if you have QB problems is Hawaii.
Colt Brennan is as good as there is at the position in this
conference and the Rainbows are actually playing a little
defense. The Pineapples well remember their last visit here
a 70-14 loss. They let Nevada back-door them last week
with two last TD's. That won't happen here today against
the toothless Bulldogs who are 0-22 ATS in their last 22 SU
conference losses! Again.
Hawaii over FRESNO ST by 14
Arizona over STANFORD by 1
Easily the two most disappointing teams in the Pac Ten, Arizona
and Stanford lock up in a battle for last place in the league.
Before going to Pasadena last week, Arizona had just seven
wins in its previous 36 games and the Cats are favored on the
road for the fi rst time in four years. In fact, they are 9-19 ATS as
RF's, including 2-11 ATS if they are a sub .600 squad. Stanford,
though, has been outscored by 24 ppg this season and hasn't
visited the winner's circle once. This is a game that deserves no
further commentary.
SAN JOSE ST over Utah St by 17
Point-starved Utah State probably fi gured, at the beginning of
the season, that this was a chance for a rare road win. Talk about
broken dreams. San Jose has come alive behind Adam Trafalis
who is completing a phenomenal 77% of his passes on the season.
With USU at 4-19 ATS in its last 23 SU losses and Jose at 10-1 ATS at
home against opponents who are off back-to-back losses, there's
only one way to go in this, if you have to go somewhere. Spartans
get their revenge.
RICE over Uab by 1
Rice doesn't get to spend a lot of time at home. This game follows a
three-game road trip with another road triplet dead ahead. Expect
the Owls to play hard in a rare home appearance. Since Chase
Clement returned to the lineup, the Owls have become dangerous
to teams not equipped to defend a spread offense. That's perilous
for road favored UAB who must buck Rice's 15-2-1 ATS mark as
conference home dogs. Blazers averaging 17 ppg.
ILLINOIS over Ohio U by 3
How do you fi gure this Ohio team out? Apparently, we have no
idea. We do know that the Bobbies are 2-11 ATS in their last 13
road games, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games and
1-10 SU against Big Ten competition... but again, we're left with
trying to determine which Ohio team will show up for the game.
Bear in mind that Illinois head coach Ron Zook is the answer to
this week's Trivia Teaser on page 2.
LOUISVILLE over Cincinnati by 31
If you watched the fi rst 22 minutes of Louisville's game against
Middle Tennessee last Friday, you would wonder why the Cardinals
are favored by so many points. If you watched Cincinnati battle
Ohio State and Virginia Tech on the road deep into the second
half, you would wonder why the Bearcats are such a big underdog.
Then you see Louie at 7-1 ATS in the last eight in this series and at
13-1 ATS in its last 14 as home chalk. No wonder.
S MISSISSIPPI over Houston by 7
Nice numbers here. Houston is 2-8 ATS between home games
and 9-20 ATS in its last 29 on the road, including 4-13 ATS as an
underdog into revenge. Southern Miss is a perfect 11-0 ATS in its
last 11 revenge games when coming off a double-digit loss and
11-2 ATS at home in its last 13 against conference opponents who
are off back-to-back SU wins. Houston, you have a problem.
KANSAS over Oklahoma St by 1
The Jayhawks are feisty to say the least and they certainly don't
fear anyone who dares to make the trip to Lawrence. If they did
have any trepidation about an invading opponent, it would be
Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have covered six in a row in the
series and NINE in a row on this fi eld. OSU's last two wins against
Kansas were by 35 and 23 points. For sure, Kansas wants to start
evening things out, but the Jays haven't done it in a long time.
Don't know why it starts here today.
Texas Tech over COLORADO by 6
Following that thrilling win at Texas A&M and the battle with
undefeated Missouri, Texas Tech ventures into dangerous waters
here. The Red Raiders are certainly not the best road favorites in
the world. In their last nine chances as road chalk, the Bandits
have one cover. Unfortunately for Buffalo backers, Colorado has
now lost 10 games in a row (matches longest in school history)
and the Bison are just 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 SU losses. They
are, however, 12-4 ATS as conference home dogs of more than
three points when playing with revenge against a .666 or better
opponent. We'll take the points...
TEXAS over Baylor by 31
First things fi rst! Texas will NOT have a letdown after last week's
Oklahoma game. Not according to the history book. The Longhorns
are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in the eight games immediately following
the Red River war. One other thing we know. Baylor, 1-40 SU on
the conference road before last week's trip to Colorado and losers
of its last fi ve against Texas by an average of 45 points, will not
win this game. The only question left is the cover.
LA TECH over Idaho by 3
Idaho seems to be improved over recent Vandal teams (read:
Dennis Erickson) but this is still a grueling trip, one that hasn't
yielded many pleasant results. Other than a puzzling 49-14 loss to
Rice in 2003, Tech is a perfect 12-0 SU in home conference games
and the Bulldogs have covered six in a row here against .500 or
worse opposition. Idaho isn't a road warrior, for sure, with just
six covers in its last 19 opportunities as road dogs. Not lookin' for
number seven here.
LSU over Kentucky by 28
With LSU stuffi ng everybody that comes to town (allowing 10
points per game), we don't think Kentucky is going to post a
bunch of points. If that translates into the Wildcats scoring 14
or less, then the LSU window is the one you want. Kentucky is a
lowly 14-47-1 ATS when held to 14 or less. The problem is that
LSU rarely gets excited about Kentucky games. The Bengals are
just 2-8-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
TEXAS EL PASO over Tulane by 16
With Tulane just 1-10 SU in its last 11 road games against .500 or
better opposition, we must consider El Paso's 38-8 ATS mark in its
last 46 SU wins. We also have to take a look at Tulane's 1-13 ATS
mark in its last 14 SU defeats and a 1-10 ATS mark in games where
the Greenies have allowed 28 or more (UTEP is averaging 38 ppg
in its last 19 home games). The problem we have with the Miners
is those two games against Houston and Tulsa dead ahead.
New Mexico over UNLV by 6
Two teams headed in different directions and the one on the
wrong road has all the bad numbers. UNLV is 2-11 ATS in its last
13 tries as dogs of plus seven or less and 10-23 ATS in its last 33
conference home games, including a 31-3 loss as a dog in its last
home game. New Mexico, on the other hand, is 8-1-1 ATS in its last
ten road games against avenging teams and getting better.
MIAMI FL over Florida Int'l by 31
One way to cure a sick season is to schedule a Sun Belt team at
home, particularly a winless one off an overtime loss. This line
may come as a surprise to you after Miami laid big numbers to
both North Carolina and Houston and struggled, but the Canes
are dying to cream somebody and neighbor from the next county
over looks to be the candidate.
SOUTHERN CAL over Arizona St by 14
As you may have already noticed, the SMART BOX says to take
Arizona State and the points. The Sun Devils are 8-2 ATS in their
last ten chances as underdogs off a bye week, but the rest of ASU's
numbers are not good, especially those produced in its last two
games, a 28-point loss to Cal and a 35-point loss to Oregon at
home. USC is 19-3 ATS in its last 22 games against an opponent off
a loss and 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games. Take the points.
GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
PENN ST over Michigan by 3
Penn State is 10-1 SU at home (only loss to OSU) in its last
ten games and fi gures to have a huge emotional edge today.
In its last four games, Michigan won three straight revenge
games against Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Minnesota, and
played bitter rival Michigan State last week in the battle for
the Paul Bunyan trophy. Revenge is Penn State's, in spades.
The Lions' only loss last season was at Michigan on the last
play of the game. Joe Pa's troops are 6-0 ATS as home dogs off
back-back-wins and 5-0 ATS at home with revenge. Only the
grass in Happy Valley will be higher than the Nits today!
UPSET
MEMPHIS over Arkansas St by 4
The Memphis Tigers still have yet to cash an ATS ticket this season.
Now, in the river war, we're asked to consider them as doubledigit
favorites We don't think so, especially with former defensive
coordinator Joe Lee Dunn no longer on the sidelines. The Indians
are a solid 8-2 ATS on the road against a foe off back-to-back losses
and have already held two foes to season-low yardage.
TROY over LA Monroe by 14
With Monroe's road record (12-59 SU in lined games) against Troy's
home record (35-3 SU last 38 as host), it would seem a foregone
conclusion that the Trojans are going to win this game. Add
Monroe's 2-10 ATS log against avenging opponents and Troy's
4-1 ATS mark in its last fi ve as home chalk and it looks like we'll
be climbing into the wooden horse for this one especially with
the SMART BOX lining up with us
Boise St over N MEXICO ST by 20
When was the last time a 500-yard offense suited up as a 20-point
home dog? We have no way of determining the answer but we're
not ready to test that idea with this defenseless bunch. Boise State
is a scintillating 52-17 ATS when scoring 28 or more and the Aggies
have given up 38 ppg in their last fi fteen lined games, all losses.
Moreover, NMSU hasn't covered the spread against a WAC foe in
its last nine tries. Still, 50-point loss revenge and a high-octane
offense make this tempting.
WASHINGTON over Tennessee by 7
While it seems impossible to recommend Tennessee under any
circumstances, we're not sure we want the Redskins who are
coming off an emotional overtime win against Jacksonville
followed by last week's blood battle with the Giants. With mighty
Indianapolis up next, who could blame the Tribe for taking it easy
here? Those considerations plus the fact that we rarely lay doubles
in the NFL, will keep us on the Titans' sidelines in this one.
3 BEST BET
With Chris Henry out and defensive injuries mounting,
Cincinnati is not as formidable as it was at the beginning of
the season. It would seem that, injuries aside, Carson Palmer
has a huge edge over rookie Bruce Gradkowski at QB and a
certifi ed edge in the running game. However, the Bengals
have allowed season-high yardage to EVERY OPPONENT
they have faced this season. And, we feel Gradkowski will
not surrender his starting job anytime in the near future.
He's a keeper. With the Bucs dressing up as UGLY PIGS (home
dogs who open the season 0-4) and standing 8-1 ATS as nondivision
home dogs, we'll ride this pig to the pen.
TAMPA BAY over Cincinnati by 6
DALLAS over Houston by 13
The Texans have had two weeks to enjoy their fi rst win of the
season but that elation is in peril here. Houie is a perfect 0-7 ATS
in its last seven tries as a non-conference road dog and 3-9 ATS as
underdogs off an upset win. Dallas is 7-1-2 ATS as favorites against
rested opponents and 6-1 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back home
games. Don't worry about Dallas having an Eagle hangover. The
Pokes are a perfect 6-0 ATS after playing in Philly. Still, we're not
advocates of laying big numbers in the NFL.
5 BEST BET
The Saints are no longer a gimme win in this league and
it's not because of Reggie Bush. Drew Brees has instilled a
confi dence in the Saint offense that was never there before
and the New Orleans defense is playing its best ball in years.
Still, this will be a test for the Holy Ones. Philadelphia has
dominated the series with fi ve straight covers but that goes
out the window in deference to a huge anticipated letdown
following last week's battle royale with Dallas. It was THE
GAME on Philly's schedule this year and they got what they
wanted a big win. It doesn't hurt knowing that the Eagles are
0-13 ATS as favorites in games after the Cowboys when playing
off back-to-back victories! Divine intervention, again.
NEW ORLEANS over Philadelphia by 10
4 BEST BET
Bad numbers abound for the Seahawks in this NFC West battle.
Seattle is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week
and 2-9 ATS following its fi rst loss of the season in the past 11
years. The series favorite is 1-5 ATS. Seattle has yet to score a TD
on the road this season and they are still the defending Super
Bowl loser. These guys are 12-28-2 ATS when laying points into
a .333 or better foe seeking revenge. The Rams have taken on
a new personality and attitude under new coach Scott Linehan.
We like it and their chances here today.
ST LOUIS over Seattle by 7
Chicago over ARIZONA by 10
Although the Bears have failed to cover six times in a row on
Monday nights, we like their 8-2 ATS mark against NFC West teams
and their 8-0 SU record (5-1-2 ATS) in their last eight games against
losing teams. Zona is 7-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back home
games to counter the Chicago numbers. Rookie QB Matt Leinart
will defi nitely be facing the best defense he's ever seen so, unless
you think Zona can win the game, you probably should stay away
from the Cards (0-8-1 ATS last nine home losses).
Carolina over BALTIMORE by 6
Finally, after three straight weeks of laying signifi cant lumber, the
Panthers return to their best role the underdog. Carolina is 19-4
ATS in their last 23 tries as the short with an amazing 15 SU wins in
those 23 games. Baltimore, though, is 7-0 ATS as non-conference
chalk and has covered fi ve of its last six October home games. The
difference here, though, is the Panthers have a lot of ground to
make up and a defense to get it done.
Miami over NY JETS by 3
The Jets have had Miami's number for so long it seems automatic to
post them on our ticket when the Dolphins are in town. New York
is a dominating 13-2-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings and certainly
has played better than the fl oundering Sea Mammals. Miami
revenge has meant little or nothing in this series and not much
more anywhere in the division. After last week's game against New
England, Miami stands 1-8-1 ATS in this role. While the trends point
to the Flyboys, we'll order up some Dolphin as it not's often you
fi nd a dog with over 100 yards the better defense in this league.
San Diego over SAN FRANCISCO by 6
The Chargers have the numbers in this one. San Diego is 9-2 ATS
in its last 11 on the non-conference road, 6-0 ATS in the fi rst of
BB road games and 7-3 ATS as road chalk of three or more points.
Although the Forty-Niners have covered fi ve of the last seven in
the series, the last cover was six years ago and, as we all know, San
Francisco's fortunes have slipped a little since then. The problem is
we won't lay a price with a team away from home on the heels of
a win over the defending Super Bowl champs. Can't do it.
PITTSBURGH over Kansas City by 13
After opening the campaign 1-3, the Steelers need this game like
blood. The last time a defending Super Bowl champ started 1-3
('99 Broncos), they ended the year 6-10. Not a good omen for
Pittsburgh. Cowher's crew is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games with
the Chiefs and the last eight meetings were in Kansas City. The last
one, a 41-20 thumping by the Tribe, is still etched in the minds of
the Pittsburgh players. Two stats involving scheduling dynamics
make the case here. The Steelers are 6-1 ATS at home before backto-
back road games and KC is 0-6 ATS as road dogs with a home
game next. Steel lost their last game at home. Not this.
DENVER over Oakland by 14
No reason to recommend Oakland who is a perfect 0-6 ATS in
its last six division revenge games, but not sure we want Denver
coming off that brutal war with Baltimore. Yes, the Broncos are
12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 division home games and have covered
fi ve of the last six in this series, but they are also 2-7-1 ATS as
double-digit chalk. In our database, which goes back to 1980,
this series has had DD favorites just three times (high line -13.5).
Just too many points.
ATLANTA over NY Giants by 3
The Atlanta running game continues to be unconscious. The
Falcons are averaging 234 ground yards a game, an ominous
number for the Giants. The G-Men are a paltry 6-26 ATS when
allowing 150 rushing yards in their last 32 chances, including just
2-14 ATS on the road. So why aren't we "rushing" to Atlanta here?
Because the Falcons are a perfect 0-9 ATS in their last nine home
games off a SU home win. That's why.
DETROIT over Buffalo by 6
Mike Martz has the Lion offense playing much better than it has in
the last half-decade. Now, if defensive whiz Rod Marinelli can shore
up the stop unit and quit giving up games in the fi nal stanza, Detroit
has a chance to win some games. Buffalo is 7-3-1 ATS in the 2nd of
BB road games and has looked better so far this season. Looks can
be deceiving, though, as evidenced by a full yard advantage for the
Lions in net yards per rush. We like home dogs with that kind of
edge. If they do puppy, up we'll walk with this UGLY PIG.
3* HAWAII
4* FLORIDA
5* UCLA
3* BUCCANEERS
4* RAMS
5* SAINTS
3* 49ers UNDER
4* Rams OVER
5* Falcons UNDER
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