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10-14-06 College Plays
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7-10-1 overall on the EOG plays, but on the road back with 7-2 the last three weeks. I like the card for the coming week, although the status of some injured players will have to be cleared up on some of my potential plays. Here's the early trio for the coming week.
348 Washington State +9
I might be getting in the way of an express train here, but I really feel as though Washington State is an underrated team that can compete with the Bears this Saturday. There's no way I can try to make a case against Cal, although at least we get the Bears coming off what was a very big game for them as they obliterated Oregon. But I've been high on Washington State since prior to the season, and they haven't disappointed me aside from their opening week defeat at Auburn. Even in that game, the Cougars were hanging in before they got fooled on a fake punt that seemed to sap their energy and resolve. Washington State has a very capable defense and if they don't turn the ball over, there's no reason they can't make this a contest and perhaps pull off the upset. This team has been a thorn in Cal's side, winning and covering four straight before last season when they fell 42-38 in a wild game, and the Cougs did easily cover the spread in that contest. In fact, they should have won, but an ill-advised fake punt while leading 38-28 turned the game. I see this year's matchup being a different type of game, but believe it will again go right to the wire.
365 Hawaii -5'
I usually avoid the obvious, but won't hesitate here. Fresno State is a total disaster right now. The comments following the shocking loss at Utah State indicate that this team is in a complete haze right now. Nothing is going right. The QB can't play, the special teams are terrible, and the defense utterly collapsed when it counted, and that was against Utah State. I think the line opened way too short here, and would have made Hawaii -8. The visitor is clearly superior right down the line, they have positive momentum, and the Hawaii effort at Boise State convinces me that having to journey to the mainland won't be an issue. I don't have a real explanation as to what has happened at Fresno and why this team has fallen apart mentally, but I don't see this as something that can be fixed in a few days. I fully expect this number to go up, so buy low on Hawaii.
384 Texas -28'
Note that I actually laid 28 on this, but I'm going to post the play including the hook as that was the number at the store I use for these writeups (I decided before the season that the only fair way to grade these plays was to use one store's line at the time I write up the games, and that store has this game -28' right now.) Anyway, how does Baylor score in this game? I don't think they will. The Bears throw it almost all the time, and when they do run it's mostly with little success. Texas should be able to push these guys all over the field in maintaining a streak of 30 plus point wins over Baylor that's currently at seven and counting. I also am one who believes that there are certain programs where beating opponents by enough to cover the spread is of some importance, and definitely put the Longhorns in that select group. That's fine with me, as it makes it less risky to lay huge lumber. I've commented on the radio that while I like the direction Guy Morris is giving Baylor, I thought they would have been better off not going to the Texas Tech spread offense with his current personnel, and I still believe that's the case. But Morriss has the Bears in the hunt for a bowl bid off the Colorado win, as they're now 3-3 with home games vs. Kansas and A&M on deck. Those are winnable games, this one isn't, and while I'm sure Baylor would like to do well, I think this is a potential mail it in spot for the Bears. Texas can win this by six touchdowns and I think that's just about what they'll do.
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7-10-1 overall on the EOG plays, but on the road back with 7-2 the last three weeks. I like the card for the coming week, although the status of some injured players will have to be cleared up on some of my potential plays. Here's the early trio for the coming week.
348 Washington State +9
I might be getting in the way of an express train here, but I really feel as though Washington State is an underrated team that can compete with the Bears this Saturday. There's no way I can try to make a case against Cal, although at least we get the Bears coming off what was a very big game for them as they obliterated Oregon. But I've been high on Washington State since prior to the season, and they haven't disappointed me aside from their opening week defeat at Auburn. Even in that game, the Cougars were hanging in before they got fooled on a fake punt that seemed to sap their energy and resolve. Washington State has a very capable defense and if they don't turn the ball over, there's no reason they can't make this a contest and perhaps pull off the upset. This team has been a thorn in Cal's side, winning and covering four straight before last season when they fell 42-38 in a wild game, and the Cougs did easily cover the spread in that contest. In fact, they should have won, but an ill-advised fake punt while leading 38-28 turned the game. I see this year's matchup being a different type of game, but believe it will again go right to the wire.
365 Hawaii -5'
I usually avoid the obvious, but won't hesitate here. Fresno State is a total disaster right now. The comments following the shocking loss at Utah State indicate that this team is in a complete haze right now. Nothing is going right. The QB can't play, the special teams are terrible, and the defense utterly collapsed when it counted, and that was against Utah State. I think the line opened way too short here, and would have made Hawaii -8. The visitor is clearly superior right down the line, they have positive momentum, and the Hawaii effort at Boise State convinces me that having to journey to the mainland won't be an issue. I don't have a real explanation as to what has happened at Fresno and why this team has fallen apart mentally, but I don't see this as something that can be fixed in a few days. I fully expect this number to go up, so buy low on Hawaii.
384 Texas -28'
Note that I actually laid 28 on this, but I'm going to post the play including the hook as that was the number at the store I use for these writeups (I decided before the season that the only fair way to grade these plays was to use one store's line at the time I write up the games, and that store has this game -28' right now.) Anyway, how does Baylor score in this game? I don't think they will. The Bears throw it almost all the time, and when they do run it's mostly with little success. Texas should be able to push these guys all over the field in maintaining a streak of 30 plus point wins over Baylor that's currently at seven and counting. I also am one who believes that there are certain programs where beating opponents by enough to cover the spread is of some importance, and definitely put the Longhorns in that select group. That's fine with me, as it makes it less risky to lay huge lumber. I've commented on the radio that while I like the direction Guy Morris is giving Baylor, I thought they would have been better off not going to the Texas Tech spread offense with his current personnel, and I still believe that's the case. But Morriss has the Bears in the hunt for a bowl bid off the Colorado win, as they're now 3-3 with home games vs. Kansas and A&M on deck. Those are winnable games, this one isn't, and while I'm sure Baylor would like to do well, I think this is a potential mail it in spot for the Bears. Texas can win this by six touchdowns and I think that's just about what they'll do.