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These were put out at 11am this morning.........at 1pm the Nebraska game got hammered down -4.5.....Maybe some Texas money will push this one back to at least 6 by gametime......
5* Nebraska +6.5 over Texas - Just when we find another good spot to go against Texas, the BCS rankings come out and piss Texas off. To a man, this team feels it got no respect in the BCS rankings (9th). They figured they'd be ranked much higher. Which will have the Longhorns out to make a statement this week when they travel to Nebraska. But can they? This game huge for Nebraska as well. We've stated several times here on these pages how Nebraska is returning to prominence after a few down years while the team implemented a new offensive scheme under coach Callahan. What better way to say "We're back!" than a win over last years National Champs? Sometimes in these write ups, we just like to hear ourselves talk : ) Fact remains, each week, the games that make these pages all start with our number being significantly different from the current line. In this case, we make this game dead even. A pick em. Both teams have beaten some cupcakes and both teams have come up short in their one big test. Texas lost at home to Ohio State and Nebraska lost on the road to USC. Here we have a home dog in a HUGE game against a Texas QB making his first road start EVER, getting 6.5 points in a game we rate even and feel they can win straight up. We win this game 55-60 times out of 100 which is why we play it.
4* Georgia Tech +7.5 over Clemson - Sometimes we handicap a game, go through our usual process, get our number, look at the history, etc.etc. and find that everything we look at overwhelmingly favors one side. Generally when that happens, we find ourselves coming to the conclusion that we simply have to be missing something! Unfortunately, when we allow ourselves to think we must be missing something, we end up talking ourselves out of some winners by staying off the game. Such is the dilemma we find ourselves in with this game. Our number favors Tech as we make Clemson a 4 point fav. A look at the history between these two over the last decade and a half tells us that when these two play, SOMEONE wins by 3. Tons of 3 point games between these two with the majority of their games decided by a TD or less. Matter of fact if you gave Tech +7.5 points in each of the last 14 games between these two, they would have covered 11 and lost only 3. Nine out of the last 10 have been decided by 5 or less. Perhaps we are missing something, which we won't find out about until sometime around 10pm est on Saturday night. But in the meantime, we're going to take +7.5 with a team that is 5-1, and figures to be every bit as good as Clemson, in a series that is ALWAYS close.
3* Rutgers +6.5 over Pittsburgh - We hate to get caught going to the well one too many times with any one team. Particularly when the rest of the country is also starting to hop on the bandwagon. That's our concern here with Rutgers. But we don't feel the line reflects a public bandwagon. If it did, this game would be -3. When we handicap this game statistically, and come up with our own number, we make Pitt a field goal favorite at best. So, still plenty of value here with Rutgers. What we have here, is two "good" football teams. What we don't know, is how good either is. Pitt is 6-1 and Rutgers 6-0, but neither team has played quality opposition. Pitts toughest opponent was Michigan State, and guess what? They failed that test with their only loss, 38-23. Rutgers biggest test was probably last week against Navy, which they blew away 34-0 and treated us to a 5* winner here on these pages. Something else that has us treading lightly here that this is a big revenge game for Pitt. Last year they trailed Rutgers 27-0 at the half. Rutgers hung on for the win, but at least one Rutgers player has been reported to have been wearing a Rutgers jersey ever since in anticipation of this rematch. We'll obviously know more about these two after this week. But here, we have to go with a solid football team as an underdog getting a generous amount of points in a game they have the potential to win outright.
2* UCLA +14 over Notre Dame - We're just not ready to lay 14 points with Notre Dame. Last year ND had a great offense and a defense that needed work. All the pre season talk this year was geared towards ND being a potential National Champ. The feeling was that they would be equally potent on offense but the defense would be vastly improved. But we've seen this team give up 47 to Michigan and 37 to Michigan State. Hardly a power house defense. Which leaves the door open for a team like UCLA to put some points on the board. We're playing this game simply because our number is ND by about a touchdown and we're getting +14. We have to watch the QB situation here. If UCLA QB (back up) Pat Cowan does NOT start, this becomes NO PLAY. Just a small play here......2*
2* BC +6.5 over Florida State - Too many points regardless of who the QB is for BC. BC is the better team here. Look for them to get a little revenge for last years home loss to FSU.
5* Nebraska +6.5 over Texas - Just when we find another good spot to go against Texas, the BCS rankings come out and piss Texas off. To a man, this team feels it got no respect in the BCS rankings (9th). They figured they'd be ranked much higher. Which will have the Longhorns out to make a statement this week when they travel to Nebraska. But can they? This game huge for Nebraska as well. We've stated several times here on these pages how Nebraska is returning to prominence after a few down years while the team implemented a new offensive scheme under coach Callahan. What better way to say "We're back!" than a win over last years National Champs? Sometimes in these write ups, we just like to hear ourselves talk : ) Fact remains, each week, the games that make these pages all start with our number being significantly different from the current line. In this case, we make this game dead even. A pick em. Both teams have beaten some cupcakes and both teams have come up short in their one big test. Texas lost at home to Ohio State and Nebraska lost on the road to USC. Here we have a home dog in a HUGE game against a Texas QB making his first road start EVER, getting 6.5 points in a game we rate even and feel they can win straight up. We win this game 55-60 times out of 100 which is why we play it.
4* Georgia Tech +7.5 over Clemson - Sometimes we handicap a game, go through our usual process, get our number, look at the history, etc.etc. and find that everything we look at overwhelmingly favors one side. Generally when that happens, we find ourselves coming to the conclusion that we simply have to be missing something! Unfortunately, when we allow ourselves to think we must be missing something, we end up talking ourselves out of some winners by staying off the game. Such is the dilemma we find ourselves in with this game. Our number favors Tech as we make Clemson a 4 point fav. A look at the history between these two over the last decade and a half tells us that when these two play, SOMEONE wins by 3. Tons of 3 point games between these two with the majority of their games decided by a TD or less. Matter of fact if you gave Tech +7.5 points in each of the last 14 games between these two, they would have covered 11 and lost only 3. Nine out of the last 10 have been decided by 5 or less. Perhaps we are missing something, which we won't find out about until sometime around 10pm est on Saturday night. But in the meantime, we're going to take +7.5 with a team that is 5-1, and figures to be every bit as good as Clemson, in a series that is ALWAYS close.
3* Rutgers +6.5 over Pittsburgh - We hate to get caught going to the well one too many times with any one team. Particularly when the rest of the country is also starting to hop on the bandwagon. That's our concern here with Rutgers. But we don't feel the line reflects a public bandwagon. If it did, this game would be -3. When we handicap this game statistically, and come up with our own number, we make Pitt a field goal favorite at best. So, still plenty of value here with Rutgers. What we have here, is two "good" football teams. What we don't know, is how good either is. Pitt is 6-1 and Rutgers 6-0, but neither team has played quality opposition. Pitts toughest opponent was Michigan State, and guess what? They failed that test with their only loss, 38-23. Rutgers biggest test was probably last week against Navy, which they blew away 34-0 and treated us to a 5* winner here on these pages. Something else that has us treading lightly here that this is a big revenge game for Pitt. Last year they trailed Rutgers 27-0 at the half. Rutgers hung on for the win, but at least one Rutgers player has been reported to have been wearing a Rutgers jersey ever since in anticipation of this rematch. We'll obviously know more about these two after this week. But here, we have to go with a solid football team as an underdog getting a generous amount of points in a game they have the potential to win outright.
2* UCLA +14 over Notre Dame - We're just not ready to lay 14 points with Notre Dame. Last year ND had a great offense and a defense that needed work. All the pre season talk this year was geared towards ND being a potential National Champ. The feeling was that they would be equally potent on offense but the defense would be vastly improved. But we've seen this team give up 47 to Michigan and 37 to Michigan State. Hardly a power house defense. Which leaves the door open for a team like UCLA to put some points on the board. We're playing this game simply because our number is ND by about a touchdown and we're getting +14. We have to watch the QB situation here. If UCLA QB (back up) Pat Cowan does NOT start, this becomes NO PLAY. Just a small play here......2*
2* BC +6.5 over Florida State - Too many points regardless of who the QB is for BC. BC is the better team here. Look for them to get a little revenge for last years home loss to FSU.
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