Live Odds?

[jpehl]

Okay got a few questions for the brigter crayons on the box. Ive been looking at the live odds for the last few weeks. Ive found something that baffles my mind. Can someone explain this to me.
Spread % ML%
Clevland 19% 84%
San Diego 81% 16%

Minnesota 78% 16%
San Fran 24% 84%

Okay if you dont see what im talking about im curious how 81% of bettors can like San Diego with the spread and then it turns around on the money line and only 16% like them on the money line. Same thing with the game below. I thought maybe something was off but i checked another site and it was the same way. Is this possible that 81% of bettors like San Diego -12.5, but on the money line 84% like a 12.5 underdog. This looks kind of strange to me. Can anyone explain this to me. This is not the first time i have seen this seen i began watching. Any explaination.
jpehl

[Dr Ray]

Okay got a few questions for the brigter crayons on the box. Ive been looking at the live odds for the last few weeks. Ive found something that baffles my mind. Can someone explain this to me.
Spread % ML%
Clevland 19% 84%
San Diego 81% 16%

Minnesota 78% 16%
San Fran 24% 84%

Okay if you dont see what im talking about im curious how 81% of bettors can like San Diego with the spread and then it turns around on the money line and only 16% like them on the money line. Same thing with the game below. I thought maybe something was off but i checked another site and it was the same way. Is this possible that 81% of bettors like San Diego -12.5, but on the money line 84% like a 12.5 underdog. This looks kind of strange to me. Can anyone explain this to me. This is not the first time i have seen this seen i began watching. Any explaination.
jpehl

For starters there is a lot more money in the pool for those side bets. Compared to the total money in the money line pool. There might be 1 million in the side pool and only $40 dimes in the money line pool so you cant really compare the two. The larger % reflects the public's opinion and the two things the public likes are big odds and favorites. Also what sharp players are going to bet -700 on a team in the NFL not many. I hope you catch what I'm trying to say it's kind of hard to explain. Basically it comes down to the difference of money in the pools makes it hard to accurately compare the two and the way the public likes to bet shape the numbers weird sometimes. Even though the percentages don't always come out this opposite.

[jpehl]

Dr. Ray
I understand completly what you are saying. I did take everything that you said into consideration before i posted. The one thing that i did not consider is the the amount of money being placed on each line? Okay throw out the top game, and lets look at the second game. SF/Minn anyone could take this game. Why would the public (Spread%) 80% in favor of Minn, turn around and be complete opposite with the moneyline. The game is 5.5 points. Not a large underdog. I might open a whole new can of worms but could this be a type of line manipulation. I really dont know much about this but just want to throw the idea out there. This is really interesting to me. Interested in any more feed back.
jpehl

[Dr Ray]

For starters there is a lot more money in the pool for those side bets. Compared to the total money in the money line pool. There might be 1 million in the side pool and only $40 dimes in the money line pool so you cant really compare the two. The larger % reflects the public's opinion and the two things the public likes are big odds and favorites. Also what sharp players are going to bet -700 on a team in the NFL not many. I hope you catch what I'm trying to say it's kind of hard to explain. Basically it comes down to the difference of money in the pools makes it hard to accurately compare the two and the way the public likes to bet shape the numbers weird sometimes. Even though the percentages don't always come out this opposite.

"The larger % reflects the public's opinion and the two things the public likes are big odds and favorites". I want to correct myself the larger number reflects the public opinion majority of the time not all the time.

[Dr Ray]

Dr. Ray
I understand completly what you are saying. I did take everything that you said into consideration before i posted. The one thing that i did not consider is the the amount of money being placed on each line? Okay throw out the top game, and lets look at the second game. SF/Minn anyone could take this game. Why would the public (Spread%) 80% in favor of Minn, turn around and be complete opposite with the moneyline. The game is 5.5 points. Not a large underdog. I might open a whole new can of worms but could this be a type of line manipulation. I really dont know much about this but just want to throw the idea out there. This is really interesting to me. Interested in any more feed back.
jpehl

I'm not sure about that game it could be a couple things. Its possible one of those sides has huge amount of sharp money on it. While the other line might be mainly public money. Or it could be the same situation as the first game just smaller odds. Also they may have adjusted the ML to go along with the pointspread even though there wasn't alot of new money bet on the money line.

[jpehl]

Couple of things, first do you think i am reading to deep into this. I dont know what im looking for but this sticks out like a sore thumb. I really just started looking at the live odds a couple of weeks ago. I dont think there is enough evidence present to make anything out of this. Im going to keep digging and see if i can find anything else. One more thing i havent looked for this but is it possible to see how much money is being put on each side. Not talking about percentages i want actually $. For some reason i think its going to be next to impossible to find something like this.
jpehl

[jpehl]

Anyone know of a site where i can find live odds from the past. I can go all the way back to last week but havent been able to go past that.
jpehl

[jpehl]

I really can not find what im looking for. Anyone have an idea where to look.
jpehl

[brink]

jpehl. No offense. But you're starting to really not make sense.

These guys have tried to explain this to you. It's really quite simple. There isn't much action on these money lines, and what little action there is, is mostly from a sharper crowd and mostly on the underdogs.

The "public" or "squares" could care less about the money lines. They want to bet the pointspread. The amount of money bet on the pointspread is a gazillion times more than the ML's.

There's no conspiracy.

[jpehl]

Brink,
I understand what they are saying. Yeah i agree with you that im not making sense. Im a little frusterated right now that i cant find what im looking for. I know its out there some where. Ive thrown a couple of things out there and its probally sent mixed signals. Im looking for ML% and Spread% from the past. I kind of threw a wrench into everything when i ask for the total money being put on both sides.
You guys are probally 100% right but im stubborn.
jpehl

[jpehl]

I found what i was looking for. Brink again you were right i wasnt making sense, i think i had to much coffee today. Im still interested in this for my own knowledge. Like you guys said i dont think it will amount to much but what the hell it gives me something else to do. Okay one more question is there anyway that the amount of money placed on the ML would ever cause the spread to move
jpehl.

[Jeff]

I should have jumped in last week when you started this thread but it was a crazy week.

There's another reason you may see some off percentages.

I'm assuming you're looking at sportsbook.com's chart where they show which way their players are betting certain games, correct?

Sportsbook.com has a special promotion they run whereas if you play a team on the moneyline and they get shut out, you get a full refund on your bet.

Promotions like these attract a sharp crowd. There's always an angle. If a sharp player is going to take a shot on the moneyline for example, on the Raiders last week, he is going to play as much of his bet as possible at sportsbook.com where he gets a refund if they get shut out.

Those are the little edges that can make the difference between a winning and losing year.

I'm not saying that's the only reason for the numbers you are seeing, as these guys in this thread make some valid points. But it's certatainly a contributing factor.







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[freeloader]

i wouldnt put much faith in any sportsbook who tells you who everyone is betting on.
how does that help the house win? that is thier goal, to take your money

maybe they are trying to influence your selection, in thier favor

but then again, i am a tin foil hat wearing conspiracy nut

[jpehl]

Jeff I never looked at sports book but it is interesting to factor in a promotion like that. I wasnt aware that they offered anything like that. I did look at several other sites that have live odds to make sure they all matched.
They do have valid points above that i cant argue with. Really i just wanted to keep up and see if i could find any type of edge. Last week in the nfl was so strange, but for a side note the two teams did cover. Im going to keep an eye on it im sure theres nothing i can get out of it but its worth a try. Freeloader i think if you check with a few sites they will show you which way the general public is betting. Maybe were talking about two diffrent things. The day that i started looking at this i had about 6 cups of coffee and was bouncing off the wall. Anyways its probally nothing like i said before but gives me something to keep up with.
jpehl

[Jeff]

This is the link I'm referring to at spotsbook :

http://www.sportsbook.com/sportsbook/betting-trends.php






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