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Scott Spreitzer's NFL Interconference Game of the Year!
Handicapper: Scott Spreitzer
League: NFL
Event: Kansas City Chiefs vs St. Louis Rams on 11/05/2006 at 10:00
Condition: St. Louis Rams
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: I'm laying the points with the Rams on Sunday. KC has been playing well at home and against soft opposition for the most part. In fact, they're 4-1 SU in their last 5, but 3 of the wins have come against San Francisco, Arizona, and a bruised and battered Seattle team. But KC is just 1-7-1 ATS in road games against teams with a winning record. And, I'm still not a believer in Herm Edwards or his team. KC fattened their defensive stats against softies, but will face a veteran QB in a solid system this week. The offense doesn't play well on the road either. In fact, KC gets out-gained by almost 100 YPG away from Arrowhead. St. Louis has run for 100+ yards in all but two games, and Bulger is playing very well in Linehan's system. The Rams' QB has passed for almost 2,000 yards, hitting 62% of his attempts, with 12 TDs and just 1 INT. KC's defense is overrated and will struggle with RB Stephen Jackson and WRs Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt. The Rams are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 hosting AFC teams. They'll expose the Chiefs as frauds on Sunday. The Rams are my AFC-NFC Game of the Year. Thanks! Good Luck! Scott
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Dr. Bob
Rotation #230 Pittsburgh (-2 1/2) 3-Stars at -2 1/2 , 2- Stars at -2 1/2 or -3 .
Rotation #232 New England (-3) 3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars at -3 1/2 or -4.
Rotation #235 Oakland (+7 1/2) 2-Stars at +7 1/2 or more.
Strong Opinion on Rotation #207 Kansas City at +1 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +3 or more
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DOC SPORTS
5 Unit Play. #137 Take Oakland +7½ over Seattle (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Raiders have won two straight games and are catching the Hawks @ just the right moment. Seattle has lost two straight games and will still be without QB Hasselbeck and RB Alexander. This means the score will be low since Seattle will have trouble moving the football behind QB Wallace. The line is also banged up and expect Oakland to get to the quarterback behind Sapp & Burgess. This will be a field goal game and thus we will have the victory which side comes out on top. Seattle 20, Oakland 17.
4 Unit Play. #115 Take Miami +13½ over Chicago (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) The Bears played their best half of the season putting 41 points on the board against the dreadful 49ers last Sunday @ Soldier Field. They will find the scoring will be much more difficult against the Dolphins, who feature a stingy defense. The Fish are coming off a bye week and just have too much talent to be playing so bad. Pride finally sets in and they will play to their potential in this game. Miami will reach double digits in this contest and stay with single digits of the Bears. Chicago will come out flat and thus this game will be closer then what the experts think. Chicago 17, Miami 10.
4 Unit Play. #124 Take Under 48 in Kansas City @ St. Louis (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) The battle of Missouri is renewed with both teams sitting under the radar and just glimpses of what they were in the past. The Rams have a record of 4-3 but have allowed more points then they have scored. The Chiefs will start QB Huard who may be playing his last game before QB Green returns to the line-up. The Rams like to beat teams throwing the football but the Chiefs ranked sixth in pass defense. This is usually a very competitive game so we will not worry about who wins this game and just focus on the under. Kansas City 23, St. Louis 20.
4 Unit Play. #126 Take Tampa Bay +1 over New Orleans (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox) The Saints laid an egg last week @ the Superdome against the Ravens and they were exposed with some of their weaknesses. They gave up 35 points in that game and the defense will be picked apart again by the Tampa Bay offense. The Saints are 2-1 on the road but have not beaten anyone of significance (Cleveland & Green Bay). QB Gradkowski's 1st start came against the Saints and he played well enough in that game to earn us the cover. We expect him to do even better in this showcase and earn his team another victory. Much of the Saints speed will be offset by playing outdoors. Tampa Bay 21, New Orleans 17.
4 Unit Play. #132 Take Pittsburgh -3 over Denver (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS) The Steelers need this game desperately after laying an egg against the Raiders. Pittsburgh dominated the stat sheet in that game but was done in by critical turnovers by QB Roethlisberger. The Broncos lost to Indianapolis @ home last week by did run the football effectively, something that they will not be able to do against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh beat Denver last season, 34-17 to advance to the Super Bowl and with both teams mainly in tact; there is no reason why they will do not that again. Pittsburgh 34, Denver 17.
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Brandon Lang
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50 DIME
New England Patriots
10 DIME
Bucs
Steelers
49ers
NEW ENGLAND (Only lay 3. Do not lay 3 ½. If your man has 3 ½, you buy the hook and ONLY lay 3. You don’t EVER and I do mean EVER, get beat by the ½.
As great a spot as it was for the Colts last week in Denver, is as bad a spot for them going to New England tonight.
First of all, it took Tom Brady 4 weeks to adjust to two things. Life without his top two receivers from last year Givens and Branch. They let Givens go in free agency and traded Branch.
Branch was the “Goose” to Brady’s “Maverick”. They were “Top Gun” together.
However, over the last 3 weeks Brady has once again found his magic with a new set of receivers and it has certainly showed.
They have just reeled off 4 in a row both SU and ATS. They crushed Cincinnati by 25 on the road, Dolphins by 10 at home and back to back road wins over the Bills by 22 and the Vikings by 24.
This team is peaking right now at the right time for their biggest game of the year that could very well be for home field advantage in the AFC playoffs.
You see, I can’t say that about Indy. As good as they looked in the 2nd half versus Denver last week, if you really look at this teams schedule, they are very fortunate to be 7-0 and I do mean very fortunate.
Giants had them beat in Week one but a horrific offensive pass interference on Carter late in the 4th gave them that game. Jags had them on the ropes winning the time of possession battle in Indy 39 mintues to 21 but let them off in the 2nd half in a game the Jags dominated.
Both the Jets and the Titans had them on the ropes but didn’t have the weapons to pull it off and Shanahan and the Broncos only have themselves to blame for that loss last week.
.Now this next statement is probably going to blow you away but it is the truth and anyone who follows football as closely as I do would agree.
If Bill Belichick were the coach of the Giants, Jags, Jets, Titans and Broncos this year when they faced Indy in those games, there is not a single ounce of doubt that the Colts would be 3-4 and there would be no talk of what a great team they are.
Fact of the matter is you can’t keep winning in the NFL with a defense as bad as this one is for Indy. You just can’t and this is the week it all comes crashing down.
The Broncos just beat down ths Colts defense physically, running the ball right down their throat and quite frankly there wasn’t a darn thing the Colts could do about it.
In fact, there is nothing the Colts have been able to do about the run all year. To the numbers.
They have allowed over 100 yards every game this year including highs of 186 to the Giants, 191 to the Jags, 214 to the Titans and 227 last week to Denver.
They signed McFarlane from Tampa Bay but that isn’t going to help. They are going to get run over early and often in this game and there is nothing the Colts are going to be able to do about it.
What makes the Patriots so good in this spot is the fact that if Belichick spots a weakness in your defense, he will go for blood early and is not afraid to rip your heart right before your very eyes.
Case and point, last Monday night. He saw the weakness of the Vikings defense was their pass defense so he went after right off the get go throwing early and often in the blowout win.
Now understand, the Patriots can absolutely run the football at will if they spot a weak defense.
Just ask the Buffalo, who they put up 183 yards rushing on right here in Foxboro, the Jets for 147 and the Bengals who they destroyed on the ground to the tune a season high 247.
Here is what you will see in this game today. They will trade points early. Back and forth, very exciting first half.
Then the Patriots defense will get the stop they need, perhaps a fumble or INT from Peyton like they always do in New England and the Patriots will march right down and punch it in and in a blink of an eye, a double digit lead at home with a run game in the 2nd half to dominate time of possession and put the game away.
That is what great teams in the NFL do who are well coached, playing at home versus a terrible and I do mean terrible defense.
I will admit I was very fortunate to win the Indy game last week. What I saw was something I already knew but didn’t realize it was that bad until Denver showed me, right in front of my face.
They showed me just how bad this Indy defense really is and there is nothing the Colts will be able to do about it and for that matter correct in 6 days.
Not against this New England team that is a lot better than people think and after today, you will not get line value like this with them at home the rest of the year.
Take advantage of it tonight people, take advantage of it because after tonight, all the talk in the NFL will no longer be about the Bears or the Colts, it will be about Tom Brady and the 3-time champion New England Patriots.
50 Dime Winner New England
TAMPA BAY
I am not a believer in this Saints team and they are going to get beat again today.
Seriously, they had benefited from a soft schedule and padded their record to a soft 5-1 before getting dominated by Ravens just as I said they would with that 10 Dime winner on Baltimore last week.
Now they face another tough defense on the road in Tampa, a defense that has been playing much better as of late. They just held the Giants to 108 rushing and 143 passing in New York in a tough 14-3 loss.
In their last 3 home games, the Bucs are 2-1 SU and ATS with the heartbreaking 26-24 loss to the Panthers and huge wins over the Bengals 14-13 and the Eagles 23-21.
Believe it or not, they dominated the Saints in that first meeting this year putting up 186 yards on ther ground and 219 in the air for 305 yards total offense. They led 21-17 in the 4th before the Saints got a punt return by Reggie Bush to get them the win.
Tampa has owned this series. They have covered 3 straight and 6 of the last 7 in this series and when the smoke clears this afternoon in hot and humid Tampa Bay, they will have beaten the Saints again.
Tampa should be a 3 point favorite in this game but due to the fact the Saints are 5-2, you are getting great line value with the Bucs here and I advise you to jump on it.
10 Dime Winner Tampa Bay
PITTSBURGH
Here they go. The whole world is off the Steelers again. Big mistake this week.
How soon we forget their last return home from the west coast. They had just been beaten by the Chargers 23-13 in a game they should have won and they know they should have won if not for Big Ben throwing to the wrong colored jersey in the 2nd half.
They came back home and got their swagger back just destroying the Chiefs 45-7. I mean, they played the way they are capable of.
Now, here they are again. Off a game in Oakland, a game they should have won once again except Big Ben threw to the wrong jersey’s again and it led to the 20-13 loss.
The Steelers defense held the Raiders to 98 yards total offense. I am talking 98 for the game and still lost. Now I know the world is counting the Steelers out right now but now me.
This team will climb out of this whole they have dug for themselves and get back in the thick of this thing and that climb starts today.
They will use the same formula they used when the destroyed them in the AFC championship game last year. Blitz Jake Plummer and force him to beat them with his brain. He couldn’t do it last year in the playoffs at home and he won’t be able to do it on the road today.
This is a dangerous wounded animal the Broncos are dealing with today and off the war last week versus Indy, this is a flat spot for them playing a team that is playing for their season, their life in 2006.
In their 3 home games this year, the Steelers won and covered over the Dolphins in week one and the aforementioned Chiefs. They gave the game away to the Bengals with fumbling punt return in a game they were in complete control of.
Pittsburgh sits at 2-5 with 3 very winnable games coming up. Here versus Denver, at home next week versus the Saints and at Cleveland.
Cowher knows if he gets this team back to 5-5 heading into Baltimore, anything can happen. Once again, this guy knows how to motivate and this is as big a game as they have had in quite sometime this early in the year.
I don’t trust Jake Plummer in this spot, on the road, off the gut wrenching home loss to the Colts last week. Bottom line is the Steelers are the right side of the game and I will force Jake Plummer to be perfect on the road against this Steelers defense.
My dollar says he can’t.
10 Dime Winner is Pittsburgh
San Francisco
You always here me talk about line value and you are getting a huge dose of it here.
The Niners come off the complete debacle at Chicago last week where turnovers and I do mean turnovers, put them in a 41-0 hole.
When you are playing in Chicago and you turn it over in the first half in the manner in which they did, you are going to get blown out and the game will appear to the naked eye to be more of a blowout than it really was.
Now they come back home and are catching close to a touchdown from a Vikings team that despite the loss on Monday night to New England 31-7, is getting tremendous respect here from the linemaker off their last road win at Seattle.
They went into the Seahawks house as 6 ½ point dogs and won outright 31-13 but that game was not the blowout people would be led to believe.
The Seahawks had no Shaun Alexander for the game and lost starting QB Hasselback late in the first quarter. The game was much closer than 31-13 people.
This Vikings team is not built on covering large numbers and this is just flat out too much wood.
The best thing that happened to the Niners is what New England showed them on Monday night. Spread this defense out and make them cover you in the passing game.
Offensive coordinator Norv Turner is very smart, one of the best at calling plays and attacking weaknesses. This Vikings defense has given up over 200 yards passing in 5 straight games.
This is a Super Bowl champion offensive coordinator folks getting a boatload of points at home. The Niners have the offensive weapons in the passing game to take advantage of this and they will do just that.
Let me also point out that it’s not like teams are just running all over this 49ers defense. San Francisco held the Chargers to 87 yards rushing, the Rams to 118 and the Chiefs to 125.
My point is the strength of the Vikings, what they are built on, is running the football, using the clock, move the chains and don’t make mistakes.
This plays into the strength of what Frisco does best and I really feel good about getting this amount of points with a home dog that is not as bad as everyone thinks they are.
I had them +3 earlier this year over the Rams and they came through with the outright win. I will come right back with them here getting double the points against a Vikings team that was exposed last week and shown the way by the Patriots as to how to attack and beat them.
Lastly, the last 25 times the Vikings have been a road favorite on grass, how about 6-19 ATS. That is pretty terrible folks and after today, it will be 6-20.
10 Dime Winner 49ers
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