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Dragon1952 - CFB Week 11 - Early thoughts

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  • Dragon1952 - CFB Week 11 - Early thoughts

    Seem to be only getting about half right lately
    Oh well, I don't have anything else to do ..........

    Miami, FLA. -2.5 @ Virginia - Miami has been playing pretty tough the past 3 games against very good competition in Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Maryland. They finally get a game they can win .... maybe their last chance this season and in a situation that could make them bowl eligible and maybe not make the season an entire waste. Virginia at 4-6 and coming off of a bye and a 33-0 lashing at the hands of Florida State, are not much of a scoring threat and the Miami 'D' should be able to really pound them.
    California +5.5 @ USC - Cal QB Longshore, the top ranked QB in the PAC 10, throws 3 picks in the loss to Arizona with the last one returned for a TD which pretty much was the game winner. Cal held the Wildcats to 262 total yds with only 60 yds rushing but did not force a single turnover. I think Cal thought they had it made with the 17-3 halftime lead and figured they could start looking ahead to this game before that one was over. Well it doesn't really harm Cal's aspirations, which are to win the PAC 10 title, which they can still do this week. Cal and USC both at 6-1 in the conference, so the win for Cal would put them one up with only Stanford remaining on the schedule. Last week Oregon slightly out-yarded USC, had a 7-minute time-of -possesion advantage and had 3 picks but just couldn't get it going offensively. USC shredded them for 167 yds rushing and clamped down when they had to defensively. I don't think Cal will be so easy to run on so it will be up to Booty to come through in the air big time if they are going to beat Cal by a considerable margin. Likely to be a close one with Cal definitely able to pull the upset.
    Arkansas -14 @ Miss St - Jumping on the Razorback bandwagon a little late but Arkansas is undefeated at 6-0 in SEC games so far this year and outscoring those teams by 28-15. The Bulldogs have been outscored by almost the exact same margin in their 6 conference games while only winning one of those. Arkansas averaging an amazing 240 yds rushing per game. Compare that to Miss St's 83 yd average! West Virginia was able to put up over 300 yds rushing against the Bulldogs so I would expect that Arkansas
    might hit their average here. I wouldn't expect the Bulldogs to be able to do much damage on the ground, as they virtually have no one left to run the ball, so they will be forced to the air where they have thrown 13 INT's allready.
    UTEP +2.5 @ Marshall - Marshall had a nice little 3 game winning streak going there after looking putrid for the first half of the season, but those wins were against teams with a combined record of 7-23! The party ended last week with a 13 pt loss at East Carolina. UTEP looked really sharp last week against UAB and now stands a chance to finish off with wins against Marshall and Memphis to finish at a respectable 7-5 and go to a bowl game. Marshall has had a staggering 25 turnovers this year. Could be a shootout with the better team getting the points.
    San Diego ST +17.5 @ TCU - The Aztecs have played a lot better since their bye week with wins vs Air Force and UNLV and 2 losses by a combined 5 pts. I just think this is way too many pts for TCU to cover against a team playing better and getting healthier.
    Auburn -3 @ Alabama - 9-2 Auburn only 3 pt favs vs the most over-rated team in history. Alabama has only one win in the last 4 games. Their 6 wins have been against Hawaii, Vanderbilt, UL Monroe, Duke, Mississippi and Florida Int. They are only 2-5 in the conference. Auburn will be steamed for getting embarrassed last week by Georgia and should come out charged.
    Ohio St -6.5 vs Michigan - Slightly better defense, more explosive offense and home field advantage. Ohio St will show that they are definitely the best team in the country with at least a 10 pt win 26-16.

  • #2
    Adding:

    Oregon State -14 @ Stanford - Stanford finally won a game vs a fading Washington Huskies team but get a very good Beaver team in this one who recently rang up 33 against USC and 44 against Arizona St in 2 consecutive victorys. Oregon St had an off game last week in the loss to a very good defensive team in UCLA but also helped them out quite a bit with 4 fumbles. Stanford definitely not the defensive team that UCLA is having given up an average of over 35 pts per game in their 6 PAC 10 games prior to last week.
    Tulsa -6.5 @ SMU - Similar to SMU's last opponent (Houston) Tulsa the much better team and this should be a similar result as that 10 pt Houston win.
    Vanderbilt +8 vs Tennessee - Vanderbilt was able to stay within 6 of the Gators in their last home game and should be able to stay within this number against a banged up and fading Tennessee team. Last year in this game the result was a 4 pt Vanderbilt win and the year before was a 5 pt loss so Vandy does get up for this game.
    Navy - 31.5 vs Temple - Temple back to their normal self last week vs Penn St (47-0) after a bunch of covers vs mediocre teams. Navy should rack up about 400 yds rushing in this one and blow the Owls out.

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    • #3
      Dragon......I hate to admit it, but I think you hit the CAL/USC game spot-on.......Cal is a very, very good football team and they give USC fits every year no matter where the game is played......You're gettin 5 1/2 points in this one, and you may not need any of 'em........Sure, SC is just starting to play their best football, but John David Booty (QB) is definitely not in the same league that Matt Leinart and Carson Palmer were..........I just can't bet against my homeboys here, but this game has me "nerved-out".......See this being a high scoring affair with a 3-point margin of victory for either side.........41-38 or 38-35.....something like that........If I weren't such a hard-core SC fan, I'd be all over the Cal Bears.

      Also love your pick in the OHIO STATE/MICHIGAN game.....Lloyd Carr (Michigan Head Coach) always seems to have his team underachieving in it's biggest games, and this should be no exception.......Just don't think we've seen Ohio State at full throttle yet....these guys are pretty damn good.

      That AUBURN/ ALABAMA game is gonna be alot closer than everyone thinks........One thing I don't like is that I haven't found anyone yet that thinks Alabama has a chance.......You know how I feel about these "looks too easy" games.........I usually go the opposite......I'll wait to see if it goes up to 4 or 5 points before I plunge..........Good Luck to you this week.
      ;)

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      • #4
        Thanks...good luck to you also Didn't know you were an SC fan! I wouldn't call myself a fan but being from S. Cal. I have followed them and rooted for them the past few years. Definitely liked the past versions better with Palmer and Lienert and Bush and Mike Williams though.
        Yeah, you're probably right about that Auburn/Alabama game. Alabama does have the defense to keep it close as they've shown already with the OT loss to Arkansas and the 3 pt loss to Tennessee, but their offense really sucks. And then they have the hardest time against teams like Vandy, Ole Miss, Duke and Mississippi St. At least Auburn has somewhat of a pulse offensively and have quality wins over a few very good teams in Wash St, LSU and Florida. On the other hand Alabama doesn't have one impressive win.

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