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Marc Lawrence Angle of the week & best Bets
Marc's Awesome Angle Of The Week
Wins 67% In PLAYBOOK Last Four Years!
ATS W-L Record
Since 1980:
22-3
(88%)
BACK ON
TRACK PLAY ON any college home
favorite of -7 > points off a
SU home favorite loss vs a foe
off a double-digit win in
which they scored 24 > points.
PLAY ON:
WEST VIRGINIA
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
Be sure to read the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
each week in the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter!
Army is 0-12 SU & ATS
with rest versus an opponent with
a win percentage of > .333
NO BEST BETS IN COLLEGE THIS WEEK
3★ BEST BET
The Forty Niners are rounding into a decent team and check into
the Super Dome with four straight covers in their back pocket. We
like their chances to make it a handful given their superior running
game and the Saints coming in nice and fat off an Atlanta series
sweep. New Orleans is 0-5 ATS off a division roadie and 3-14 ATS
against foes playing the second of BB road games. In addition,
the Bourbon Street gang is 15-45 ATS as home chalk against an
opponent off a loss, including 4-22 ATS laying six or more points
(1-17 ATS going into revenge). Niners strike gold in N'Awlins.
San Francisco over NEW ORLEANS by 3
4★ BEST BET
After the win over Indianapolis and the decimation of Tampa on
Turkey Day, the Cowboys look like the class of the NFC East. They
are, however, 3-8 ATS after their Thanksgiving game and 6-13
ATS off BB home games. The Giants, meanwhile, are 12-3 ATS in
December vs winning avengers and 4-0-1 ATS in the last fi ve of
this series. They limp home off back-to-back road losses, the last
a devastating defeat at Tennessee last week. G-Men handled the
Boys in Dallas earlier this year to the tune of 36-22 and stand 4-0
ATS as division home dogs off a SU favorite loss. Again.
NY GIANTS over Dallas by 10
5★ BEST BET
With Denver off BB losses and with extra time to prepare, we
can't get too excited about the Seabags. For openers, defending
Super Bowl losers are 84-115-5 ATS on the road the following
season. When they take to the road off a Monday Night game
from Game 8 on out against a foe off back-to-back losses, they
are 1-9 ATS. The Broncos have also bagged the cash nine of the
last ten tries against teams from the NFC West division. Off a pair
of home losses, expect fi re in the eyes of this horse today.
DENVER over Seattle by 17
3* bills over
4*Rams over
5*Raiders under
Marc Lawrence
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, November 30th
Mac Championship
C Michigan over Ohio by 6
Despite its recent surge, mostly behind a strong running game, Ohio
still gains just 285 YPG on the season, thus their 104th ranking. It's
the defense (21st ranked) that has been the catalyst. The key here is
Central's ability to stop the run. If the Bobbies have to rely on their
114th-ranked pass offense, they will be in trouble. Brian Kelly is a
master at winning championships (two Division II titles). While we're
not fond of laying points to a better defense, the Chippewas' 7-1
SUATS mark against the MAC this year is appealing. With Iowa State in
hot pursuit of Kelly, look for the Chips to play hard for him today.
Marc Lawrence’s
Friday, December 1st
CUSA CHAMPIONSHIP
Robertson Stadium • Houston, TX
HOUSTON over S Mississippi by 6
Back on October 14th, Houston visited the Eagles' Nest and got stung
with a 31-27 loss. The circumstances of that loss, a questionable ruling
at a crucial point in the game, will inspire the Cougars here. The
numbers also support the Cats, as does the SMART BOX. Southern
Miss has lost fi ve road games in a row to winning teams and is 1-7 ATS
as a road dog to winning teams off BB SU wins. Houston is averaging
33 points per game this season. The Golden Eagles are 6-27 ATS when
allowing 28 or more to a team off a win. An extra week of rest aides
the Cougar cause, especially considering USM's 1-5 SUATS mark as
road dogs versus a rested foe under head coach Jeff Bower.
sat plays
W VIRGINIA over Rutgers by 13
Not fond of Rutgers' chances here against a band of Hillbillies
mortifi ed by the home loss to South Florida last week. WVU gains
134 ground yards per game more than New Jersey State and allows
19 less. Rutgers is 0-34 SU on the road against winning teams the
last 34 times they have been outrushed. The Mounties are 47-7 ATS
in their last 54 SU wins vs .600 or better teams. 'Knightmare on Elm
Street' as Greg Schiano falls to 0-6 SU in his career against WVU. This
week's AWESOME ANGLE (page 2) cements it.
Navy over Army by 24
This group of Navy seniors has never lost nor failed to cover in the
Commander-in-Chief series and we see no reason why their ship will
sink today. Army hasn't come within 14 points of winning a lined game
since Sept 23rd. The Black Knights are also 1-8 ATS in the last nine
games of this series, including a perfect 0-6 ATS as an underdog, and
0-8 ATS in their last eight tries as a dog of +3 or more. Navy has NEVER
failed to cover (23-0 ATS) in a SU win with rest. Man the torpedoes!
N MEXICO ST over La Tech by 11
You'd think that the nation's fi fth-ranked offense would be able to
take it to its worst defense, especially when the enemy has a scoring
margin of nearly 28 points the wrong way in lined games this year.
However, until they won at Utah State last week, the Aggies were
0-22 SU in their last 22 lined games while Tech actually has a couple
of lined wins in '06. Not interested in this Sun Belt-ish calamity.
CALIFORNIA over Stanford by 28
Devastated! That's the feeling on the Berkeley campus after the Bears
were stuffed by Southern Cal. But, you don't need to be at the top of
your game to beat Stanford unless you're the Washington Huskies.
Although this is the West Coast version of "The Game", we don't see
California as all that enthused – and you know how we feel about
disinterested favorites, particularly those who are laying FIVE TD's.
Remember, after its 5-1 ATS start this season, the tarnished Bears are
riding a 4-game ATS losing skein entering this contest. No thanks.
Southern Cal over UCLA by 10
The Trojans have owned this series of late, posting seven straight
wins averaging 21 points each while grabbing six covers. USC also
owns the late season. Since 2000, Troy is 20-0 SU and 16-4 ATS in
conference play from November 1st out, one of the more impressive
stats in CFB. The Bruins are not without support, however. They are
13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games and 23-9 ATS at home off BB SU
wins. They're also perfect at home under HC Karl Dorrell when not
laying points (4-0 ATS). Ohio State rootin' for Bruins. So are we.
TCU over Air Force by 10
Up until last week's game at Colorado State, the Horned Frogs had
been consistently unimpressive on the road. They needed turnover
touchdowns to get wins at Army, Baylor and UNLV, three teams with
fi ve lined wins between them. They also got three turnover TD's and
192 total yards at New Mexico, and got smoked at Utah. Also don't
like the fact that the Horned Ones are 1-13 ATS as favorites when
allowing 90 or more rushing yards. Take it or leave it.
SAN JOSE ST over Fresno St by 3
The stats on these two teams are relatively equal. San Jose had been
playing better all season long until Fresno started a mini-run against
some terrible teams. San Jose is favored, as it should be. Here's the
problem: Jose hasn't beaten Fresno in any of the 11 meetings since
1994 and, in the last two meetings, were underdogs of +26 and +33.
We won't be diagramming any sentences with this chalk!
LOUISVILLE over Connecticut by 31
Louisville's record (14-2 ATS) as a home favorite is powerful and,
under Bobby Petrino, its last home game of the season has been no
different. Those three games produced SU wins in which Louisville
scored 41, 70 and 66 points. Since Connecticut is 1-9 ATS in its last
ten road games when allowing 24 or more, it would be pretty hard
to fade the Cardinals in this spot. Impossible, actually.
SAN DIEGO ST over Colorado St by 1
As Yoda might say, "Road warrior Colorado State is not." The Rams
haven't covered as a road favorite since November of 2002. In the six
ATS losses in that role since then, CSU has only two SU wins, by one
point and by four points. This year, the Rams have no conference road
wins. Still, it's less dangerous to be the fi fth guy in a game of Russian
Roulette than it is to take the Aztecs, no matter what the situation
is! Rams should not be favored over anyone right now.
HAWAII over Oregon St by 10
The Rainbows have been mauling every team that meanders into
the Pineapple Patch and we're not so sure OSU will fare any better.
The Beavers won their biggest game of the season last week, have
nothing to gain or lose by the result of this game, and are more than
likely here for a vacation than business. You must have your head in
the game when you play Hawaii here or you'll be looking at a 21-0
defi cit before the ice in your Mai Tai melts. Oh yea, teams concluding
the regular season on Oahu are 2-8 ATS off a home game when the
Warriors sport a .500 or better record.
ADDED GAMES
LA LAFAYETTE over LA Monroe by 1
Either take the dog or pass here: the series favorite stands 0-8 ATS.
Troy over FLORIDA INT'L by 17
Since FIU is averaging TWO POINTS per game in its last fi ve contests,
we're going to give this one to the guys in the Wooden Horse.
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
GEORGIA TECH over Wake Forest by 4
Although GT has the better offense and better defense, Wake Forest
has the better record. The reason is simple. There is no one on Wake's
team who can foul up a game like Reggie Ball. The Yellow Jacket QB,
despite being a four-year starter, was rattled badly by Georgia and
ended up costing his team the game. Wake's astute Jim Grobe took
notice, we're sure. The Deacons don't have the weapons to match
Tech's, but they are 27-9 ATS as an dog when .500 or better and facing
a foe off a loss. Bottom line, though, is the Demons played more like
Fake Forest this season, allowing 13 YPG more than they gained. Can't
trust those kind of numbers in a game this important.
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
FLORIDA over Arkansas by 1
One of the more impressive stats of the past weekend was the 298
yards rushing that Arkansas put up against the nation's top-ranked
defense, handing LSU its fi rst stat-loss of the season. But the Hogs
couldn't complete a pass in the second half of that loss to the Bengals
and they will need to fi nd some semblance of a passing game here or
they will lose again. Florida can still get into the national title game
if USC loses to UCLA and the Gator "D" is just a notch below LSU's.
Running dogs are always attractive, though....
BIG 12 GAME
Oklahoma over Nebraska by 1
The Sooners backed into this game thanks to Texas A&M's stunning
upset over the Texas Longhorns in Austin and to a dropped pass
near the goal line in the fi nal seconds of their win over Okie State.
Nebraska has been ticketed for this clash since beating Missouri a
month ago. We do know that Stoops has been here before. Callahan
hasn't. Still, the Huskers are on a 5-1-1 ATS run and averaging 34 PPG
this season. OU is 0-15 ATS as a fav when allowing 27 or more pts.
Marc's Awesome Angle Of The Week
Wins 67% In PLAYBOOK Last Four Years!
ATS W-L Record
Since 1980:
22-3
(88%)
BACK ON
TRACK PLAY ON any college home
favorite of -7 > points off a
SU home favorite loss vs a foe
off a double-digit win in
which they scored 24 > points.
PLAY ON:
WEST VIRGINIA
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
Be sure to read the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
each week in the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter!
Army is 0-12 SU & ATS
with rest versus an opponent with
a win percentage of > .333
NO BEST BETS IN COLLEGE THIS WEEK
3★ BEST BET
The Forty Niners are rounding into a decent team and check into
the Super Dome with four straight covers in their back pocket. We
like their chances to make it a handful given their superior running
game and the Saints coming in nice and fat off an Atlanta series
sweep. New Orleans is 0-5 ATS off a division roadie and 3-14 ATS
against foes playing the second of BB road games. In addition,
the Bourbon Street gang is 15-45 ATS as home chalk against an
opponent off a loss, including 4-22 ATS laying six or more points
(1-17 ATS going into revenge). Niners strike gold in N'Awlins.
San Francisco over NEW ORLEANS by 3
4★ BEST BET
After the win over Indianapolis and the decimation of Tampa on
Turkey Day, the Cowboys look like the class of the NFC East. They
are, however, 3-8 ATS after their Thanksgiving game and 6-13
ATS off BB home games. The Giants, meanwhile, are 12-3 ATS in
December vs winning avengers and 4-0-1 ATS in the last fi ve of
this series. They limp home off back-to-back road losses, the last
a devastating defeat at Tennessee last week. G-Men handled the
Boys in Dallas earlier this year to the tune of 36-22 and stand 4-0
ATS as division home dogs off a SU favorite loss. Again.
NY GIANTS over Dallas by 10
5★ BEST BET
With Denver off BB losses and with extra time to prepare, we
can't get too excited about the Seabags. For openers, defending
Super Bowl losers are 84-115-5 ATS on the road the following
season. When they take to the road off a Monday Night game
from Game 8 on out against a foe off back-to-back losses, they
are 1-9 ATS. The Broncos have also bagged the cash nine of the
last ten tries against teams from the NFC West division. Off a pair
of home losses, expect fi re in the eyes of this horse today.
DENVER over Seattle by 17
3* bills over
4*Rams over
5*Raiders under
Marc Lawrence
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, November 30th
Mac Championship
C Michigan over Ohio by 6
Despite its recent surge, mostly behind a strong running game, Ohio
still gains just 285 YPG on the season, thus their 104th ranking. It's
the defense (21st ranked) that has been the catalyst. The key here is
Central's ability to stop the run. If the Bobbies have to rely on their
114th-ranked pass offense, they will be in trouble. Brian Kelly is a
master at winning championships (two Division II titles). While we're
not fond of laying points to a better defense, the Chippewas' 7-1
SUATS mark against the MAC this year is appealing. With Iowa State in
hot pursuit of Kelly, look for the Chips to play hard for him today.
Marc Lawrence’s
Friday, December 1st
CUSA CHAMPIONSHIP
Robertson Stadium • Houston, TX
HOUSTON over S Mississippi by 6
Back on October 14th, Houston visited the Eagles' Nest and got stung
with a 31-27 loss. The circumstances of that loss, a questionable ruling
at a crucial point in the game, will inspire the Cougars here. The
numbers also support the Cats, as does the SMART BOX. Southern
Miss has lost fi ve road games in a row to winning teams and is 1-7 ATS
as a road dog to winning teams off BB SU wins. Houston is averaging
33 points per game this season. The Golden Eagles are 6-27 ATS when
allowing 28 or more to a team off a win. An extra week of rest aides
the Cougar cause, especially considering USM's 1-5 SUATS mark as
road dogs versus a rested foe under head coach Jeff Bower.
sat plays
W VIRGINIA over Rutgers by 13
Not fond of Rutgers' chances here against a band of Hillbillies
mortifi ed by the home loss to South Florida last week. WVU gains
134 ground yards per game more than New Jersey State and allows
19 less. Rutgers is 0-34 SU on the road against winning teams the
last 34 times they have been outrushed. The Mounties are 47-7 ATS
in their last 54 SU wins vs .600 or better teams. 'Knightmare on Elm
Street' as Greg Schiano falls to 0-6 SU in his career against WVU. This
week's AWESOME ANGLE (page 2) cements it.
Navy over Army by 24
This group of Navy seniors has never lost nor failed to cover in the
Commander-in-Chief series and we see no reason why their ship will
sink today. Army hasn't come within 14 points of winning a lined game
since Sept 23rd. The Black Knights are also 1-8 ATS in the last nine
games of this series, including a perfect 0-6 ATS as an underdog, and
0-8 ATS in their last eight tries as a dog of +3 or more. Navy has NEVER
failed to cover (23-0 ATS) in a SU win with rest. Man the torpedoes!
N MEXICO ST over La Tech by 11
You'd think that the nation's fi fth-ranked offense would be able to
take it to its worst defense, especially when the enemy has a scoring
margin of nearly 28 points the wrong way in lined games this year.
However, until they won at Utah State last week, the Aggies were
0-22 SU in their last 22 lined games while Tech actually has a couple
of lined wins in '06. Not interested in this Sun Belt-ish calamity.
CALIFORNIA over Stanford by 28
Devastated! That's the feeling on the Berkeley campus after the Bears
were stuffed by Southern Cal. But, you don't need to be at the top of
your game to beat Stanford unless you're the Washington Huskies.
Although this is the West Coast version of "The Game", we don't see
California as all that enthused – and you know how we feel about
disinterested favorites, particularly those who are laying FIVE TD's.
Remember, after its 5-1 ATS start this season, the tarnished Bears are
riding a 4-game ATS losing skein entering this contest. No thanks.
Southern Cal over UCLA by 10
The Trojans have owned this series of late, posting seven straight
wins averaging 21 points each while grabbing six covers. USC also
owns the late season. Since 2000, Troy is 20-0 SU and 16-4 ATS in
conference play from November 1st out, one of the more impressive
stats in CFB. The Bruins are not without support, however. They are
13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games and 23-9 ATS at home off BB SU
wins. They're also perfect at home under HC Karl Dorrell when not
laying points (4-0 ATS). Ohio State rootin' for Bruins. So are we.
TCU over Air Force by 10
Up until last week's game at Colorado State, the Horned Frogs had
been consistently unimpressive on the road. They needed turnover
touchdowns to get wins at Army, Baylor and UNLV, three teams with
fi ve lined wins between them. They also got three turnover TD's and
192 total yards at New Mexico, and got smoked at Utah. Also don't
like the fact that the Horned Ones are 1-13 ATS as favorites when
allowing 90 or more rushing yards. Take it or leave it.
SAN JOSE ST over Fresno St by 3
The stats on these two teams are relatively equal. San Jose had been
playing better all season long until Fresno started a mini-run against
some terrible teams. San Jose is favored, as it should be. Here's the
problem: Jose hasn't beaten Fresno in any of the 11 meetings since
1994 and, in the last two meetings, were underdogs of +26 and +33.
We won't be diagramming any sentences with this chalk!
LOUISVILLE over Connecticut by 31
Louisville's record (14-2 ATS) as a home favorite is powerful and,
under Bobby Petrino, its last home game of the season has been no
different. Those three games produced SU wins in which Louisville
scored 41, 70 and 66 points. Since Connecticut is 1-9 ATS in its last
ten road games when allowing 24 or more, it would be pretty hard
to fade the Cardinals in this spot. Impossible, actually.
SAN DIEGO ST over Colorado St by 1
As Yoda might say, "Road warrior Colorado State is not." The Rams
haven't covered as a road favorite since November of 2002. In the six
ATS losses in that role since then, CSU has only two SU wins, by one
point and by four points. This year, the Rams have no conference road
wins. Still, it's less dangerous to be the fi fth guy in a game of Russian
Roulette than it is to take the Aztecs, no matter what the situation
is! Rams should not be favored over anyone right now.
HAWAII over Oregon St by 10
The Rainbows have been mauling every team that meanders into
the Pineapple Patch and we're not so sure OSU will fare any better.
The Beavers won their biggest game of the season last week, have
nothing to gain or lose by the result of this game, and are more than
likely here for a vacation than business. You must have your head in
the game when you play Hawaii here or you'll be looking at a 21-0
defi cit before the ice in your Mai Tai melts. Oh yea, teams concluding
the regular season on Oahu are 2-8 ATS off a home game when the
Warriors sport a .500 or better record.
ADDED GAMES
LA LAFAYETTE over LA Monroe by 1
Either take the dog or pass here: the series favorite stands 0-8 ATS.
Troy over FLORIDA INT'L by 17
Since FIU is averaging TWO POINTS per game in its last fi ve contests,
we're going to give this one to the guys in the Wooden Horse.
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
GEORGIA TECH over Wake Forest by 4
Although GT has the better offense and better defense, Wake Forest
has the better record. The reason is simple. There is no one on Wake's
team who can foul up a game like Reggie Ball. The Yellow Jacket QB,
despite being a four-year starter, was rattled badly by Georgia and
ended up costing his team the game. Wake's astute Jim Grobe took
notice, we're sure. The Deacons don't have the weapons to match
Tech's, but they are 27-9 ATS as an dog when .500 or better and facing
a foe off a loss. Bottom line, though, is the Demons played more like
Fake Forest this season, allowing 13 YPG more than they gained. Can't
trust those kind of numbers in a game this important.
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
FLORIDA over Arkansas by 1
One of the more impressive stats of the past weekend was the 298
yards rushing that Arkansas put up against the nation's top-ranked
defense, handing LSU its fi rst stat-loss of the season. But the Hogs
couldn't complete a pass in the second half of that loss to the Bengals
and they will need to fi nd some semblance of a passing game here or
they will lose again. Florida can still get into the national title game
if USC loses to UCLA and the Gator "D" is just a notch below LSU's.
Running dogs are always attractive, though....
BIG 12 GAME
Oklahoma over Nebraska by 1
The Sooners backed into this game thanks to Texas A&M's stunning
upset over the Texas Longhorns in Austin and to a dropped pass
near the goal line in the fi nal seconds of their win over Okie State.
Nebraska has been ticketed for this clash since beating Missouri a
month ago. We do know that Stoops has been here before. Callahan
hasn't. Still, the Huskers are on a 5-1-1 ATS run and averaging 34 PPG
this season. OU is 0-15 ATS as a fav when allowing 27 or more pts.