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**Dr Ray** · 09-05-2007, 11:20 AM

Sept 6 Pointwise College/NFL

COLLEGE
1a- Ariz State
1b- Mich State
2- Virginia Tech
3- Wyoming
4a- Hawaii
4b- WVU
5a- NCST
5b-S.Florida

NFL
2-Chargers
3-Eagles
4a-Seahawks
4b-Panthers
5-Jaguars

**Dr Ray** · 09-05-2007, 11:23 AM

MTi�s NFL Selections / Week 1

5-Star JACKSONVILLE -6� over Tennessee�The Titans had both
a 5-game winning streak and a 5-game losing streak last season
and finished 8-8, the same record as the Jaguars. Tennessee won a lot
of games despite being out-statted. One of them was vs the Jaguars.
In week 15, the Titans upset the Jaguars 24-17 getting 3� at home.
The Jaguars� offense outgained the Titans� offense 396 yards to 98
yards. Tennessee�s offense managed a total of five first downs, but they
didn�t need much offense, as they scored on two long interception
returns and a long fumble return. The only time their offense put
points on the board was on a field goal after a 70-yard kickoff return!
Jacksonville had a staggering 44:22 of possession time vs the Titans�
15:38! Over the past eighteen NFL seasons, there have been only ten
non-overtime games in which one team held the ball for at least 44
minutes. In every game but the Jaguars vs the Titans last season, the
team that dominated the clock won by double-digits.
We look for the Jaguars to gain revenge here. They are off a disappointing
season, whereas the Titans are off a good season. Jaguars� head
coach John Fox has prepared his team well for the regular season, as
Jacksonville is 8-0 ATS since 1999 in their season opener, covering
the spread by an average of 10.4 ppg. We used this trend in this spot
last season and the Jaguars covered for us against the Cowboys.
That said, we have a lot more than just this trend. Jacksonville�s
strength is stopping the run and Tennessee needs to rely on the running
of LenDale White. Vince Young is not a crisp or accurate passer
and he lost both Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade in the off season.
We expect the Titans to have a lot of trouble moving the ball vs this
tough Jaguars� defense. It is a little-known fact that the Jaguars led
the league in points allowed at home last season, as their opponents
averaged 11.0 ppg in Jacksonville in 2006 � and they faced the
Cowboys, Colts and Patriots at home last season!
Tennessee�s 8-8 record was a result of luck and teams over-looking
them. Their defense allowed an average of 369.7 yards per game last
season and this was the worst in the league. Their opponent�s held the
ball for an average of 32:50, the highest opponent�s possession time
in the league. Jacksonville�s opponents had an average possession time
of only 27:52, second only to the Ravens.
The Titans finished dead last in the league in completion percentage
and if it wasn�t for the Colts, the Titans would have allowed the most
yards rushing in the AFC at 145.1 yards per game. A key stat that
is a terrific gauge of the quality of a team is the difference between a
team�s punts and forced punts. Tennessee punted the ball an average
of 5.50 times per game last season (5th worst) and forced only 4.25
punts per game (6th worst). The Jaguars, punted the ball away only
4.56 times per game last season (9th best), but forced an average of
5.62 punts per game (5th best). Despite their 8-8 record, the Jaguars
actually outscored their opponents by an average of 6.1 ppg last season.
This is higher than the Colts, Saints, Eagles and Cowboys.
Indeed, no matter how you look at it, these two teams have had
very different performances last season, despite the fact that they both
finished at 8-8. And to further rub it in, the Titans� won the tie-breaker,
relegating the Jaguars to third place in their division. Tennessee�s 24-17
win in their last meeting epitomizes the disparity between the quality
of the teams and their record last season. The schedule-makers have
given the Jaguars an opportunity to correct this in their opening game
and they shouldn�t miss the opportunity.
David Garrard, recently named the starter, is a good choice. It was
him who threw the INTs that were returned for TDs vs the Titans,
motivating him for revenge in his home opener as the first string
starter.
In the past Jacksonville has been soft against weaker teams and
gotten up for the league�s elite. Here, we expect them to come out of
the tunnel with their game faces on. Lay the points.
MTi�s FORECAST: JACKSONVILLE 27 Tennessee 3
4-Star Tampa Bay +6 over SEATTLE�Last season, our top side
play in week one was the Ravens PLUS the points over the Bucs.
Baltimore crushed Tampa 27-0. This season, we�ll go WITH the
Buccaneers.
The Bucs� last regular season game was vs these Seahawks, as they
met in week 17, 2006. Tampa Bay was laying 3 at home, but they
MTi�s Side Play of the Week
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lost 23-7 to finish at 4-12. The Seahawks scored on their first two
possessions and never trailed. Seattle had already clinched the NFC
West crown at 8-7, but they played their starters to ensure that they
got over 500 for the season and earned a modicum of respect from
their playoff opponents. Here, however, they are starting a new season
and they have the Arizona Cardinals on the road next week. Arizona
thinks they �won� the NFC West division last season, as they were
4-2 vs divisional opponents, whereas the Seahawks were only 3-3.
Next week is a big game for Seattle and we expect they won�t be able
to avoid looking ahead. We have a play-against system that is perfect
since 1989, and that�s as far back as the database goes. It reads, �The
league is 0-13 ATS in week 1 as a favorite of greater than 3 and fewer
than 7 points over a non-divisional opponent who they had a better
record than, when their next game is versus a divisional opponent.�
The Seahawks fit this system in which teams have failed to cover by
an average of 13.0 ppg.
Tampa Bay is a very nice 4-0-1 ATS when seeking revenge vs a
non-divisional opponent for a loss the previous season, covering the
spread by an average of 12.4 ppg. Last season, the Bucs nearly got
revenge vs the Bears in just this situation, losing 34-31 in overtime,
getting 13 points in Chicago.
Jeff Garcia should be a big improvement over previous Bucs� QB�s
and Garcia fits not only Gruden�s offense, but his personality as well.
The defense will play better knowing that they have a tough, veteran
QB that will give the job done on the offensive side of the ball. Taking
the six points is the way to go here.
MTi�s FORECAST: SEATTLE 20 TAMPA BAY 17
MTi�s Totals Play of the Week
4-Star Denver at Buffalo OVER 37�Broncos QB Jay Cutler has
started five games in his NFL career and all five went over. Denver
has never scored fewer than 20 points when he started behind center
nor have they allowed fewer than 20 points when he started behind
center. Yet this is the lowest total in any game Cutler has started. In fact,
it is the only total that has been in the 30�s in Cutler�s five starts.
Another coach might be cautious with his young QB on the
road, but we look for the veteran HC Shanahan to give Cutler some
latitude here. Buffalo has suffered serious veteran losses on defense
(Takeo Spikes, London Fletcher and Nate Clements) and is very
young. With McGahee gone and rookie Marshawn Lynch taking his
place, the Bills� defense will be on the field too much. This means
points for the Broncos and since Buffalo has the ability to complete
the long pass, we expect some points from them as well � as they
will playing from behind.
In last season�s opener, Denver lost 18-10 on the road to the
Rams, by virtue of a 5-0 turnover margin � four of which were Jake
Plummer�s (three INTs and a lost fumble). Plummer is gone and Shanahan
is now sleeping better at night. Shanahan has demonstrated a
confidence in Cutler that we have not see since the departure of John
Elway. He knows that will not force the ball and will throw it away
when necessary.
Looking at the trends, we see that the Bills are a perfect 4-0 OU
since divisional realignment as a home dog when they play on the
road in each of the next two weeks. Buffalo, who plays at Pittsburgh
and New England over the next two weeks, has eclipsed the OU
line by an average of 19.6 ppg in this situation. The Broncos have a
complementary trend. Denver, who hosts Oakland and Jacksonville
over the next two weeks is 6-0 OU as a road favorite on Sunday over
a non-divisional opponent when they play at home in each of the next
two weeks. Denver has gone over the posted number by an average of
12.2 ppg in this situation and in their last active date, week 15, 2006,
they beat the Cardinals 37-20 as a 2� point road favorite with the OU
line at 43�. Take these two OVER this low number.
MTi�s FORECAST: Denver 27 BUFFALO 17 OVER
MTi�s Teaser Play of the Week
The Jaguars joined the league in 1995 and ever since then they are
a perfect 11-0 ATSp10* in their season opener. So, give the Jags
an extra ten points and they are perfect in their opener in franchise
history. We used Jacksonville in this spot last season and we look for
another Teaser +10 victory here.
The Ravens are a fantastic teaser team � especially vs their division
� as they have the defense to keep games close. Baltimore
is 17-0 ATSp10 vs a divisional opponent and 21-1 ATSp10 in
franchise history vs Cincinnati.
The 49ers simply do not get blown out at home by their divisional
opponents. San Francisco is 46-4-1 ATSp10 when hosting
divisional opponents and three of the losses came against the
Panthers and one vs the Saints. Both are no longer in their division.
Since divisional realignment. The 49ers are a perfect 15-0
ATSp10.
That makes our 3-team, 10-point teaser for week 1:
4-Star Jacksonville +3�, Baltimore +12� and San Francisco +7
MTi Sports Forecasting�s 6-point, 2-team teasers were 32-16 last
regular season and 13-3 this preseason. No kidding. MTi�s teasers are
available at KillerCappers.com all season with a web debit account.
As always, MTi�s teasers are guaranteed to be PERFECT or you
pay nothing.
*ATSp10 means against the spread plus ten points. That is, when used in a
ten-point teaser

**chuck** · 09-05-2007, 11:30 PM

Dr Ray, You're newsletter posts are most appreciated. Thank you.

**kunkel77** · 09-06-2007, 01:53 PM

I just stumbled across this site and the info here is awesome!! I will definatly lose some sleep trying to catch up reading all the posts.
Is there anyone who gets the Power Sweep or Power Plays Newsletters who would be interested in trading each week thru email for the Goldsheet?
I know the plays are listed here but I like reading the write ups for all the games as well.
Thanks,
Robb

**lfp** · 09-06-2007, 11:31 PM

dr. bob

2 Star Selection
**JACKSONVILLE (-6.5) 27 Tennessee 13
10:00 AM Pacific, 09-Sep-07
Jacksonville was a much better team last season than their 8-8 record would indicate, as the Jags averaged 5.6 yards per play and allowed just 4.7 yppl while out-scoring their opponents by an average of 23.2 to 17.1. Jacksonville was 2-7 in games decided by 7 points or less and more of those close games are destined to go their way this season and I�m expecting 10 or 11 wins from the Jags. Jaguars� coach Jack Del Rio has chosen David Garrard to be the starting quarterback, which seems like a good decision given that Garrard has performed better than Bryon Leftwich over the last couple of seasons. Garrard stepped in for an injured Leftwich last season in week 8 and the Jaguars offense averaged 6.0 yards per play in their final 10 games against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. Garrard has been about average as a passer in his career (6.2 yards per pass play last season against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB), but his running ability is a plus and the team seems to rally around Garrard more than they did for Leftwich. The rushing attack is what carried the Jaguars� offense last season as Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined for 2087 yards at 5.3 ypr. I don�t expect those two to run for that high of an average again this season, but the rushing attack will still be among the NFL�s best and I rate the offense at 0.2 yppl better than average overall. Jacksonville is a good team because of their defense, which yielded just 4.7 yppl last season to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Jacksonville should be a bit better than that this season, as the run defense was 0.4 ypr better in the 11 games with DT Marcus Stroud available to play than they were in the 5 games he missed. Stroud teams with John Henderson to give the Jaguars the league�s best set of run-stuffing defensive tackles (although Minnesota�s pair of Williams were damn good last year) and the defensive backfield is also good, allowing just 5.5 yppp last season to teams that would average a combined 6.2 yppp against an average defensive team. Jacksonville is one of the best teams in the league and I�m playing them Over 9 wins.
Tennessee was a good story last year, going 8-5 with Vince Young as the starting quarterback after an 0-3 start. Don�t be fooled by that record, as the Titans were not a better than average team with Young at quarterback. Tennessee was 8-1 in games decided by 7 points or less with Young at quarterback and that sort of good fortune is not likely to repeat itself. Tennessee was slightly better than average offensively last season with Young starting (5.3 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack), but the defense was 0.2 yppl worse than average and the special teams were good. Overall, the Titans were an average team with Young at quarterback but that will not be the case this season after losing starting running back Travis Henry (1211 yards at 4.5 ypr), their top two wideouts in Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade and Pac- Man Jones. Young will have one of the league�s worst receiving corps and the rushing attack will not be nearly as good without Henry. The Titans did get a good replacement for Jones in the secondary when they picked up former Colts� CB Nick Harper, but Jones was also a weapon as a punt returner and his contributions on special teams will be missed. Overall, I rate the Titans 0.1 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.3 yppl worse than average on defense with better than average special teams. Tennessee is in a tough division so it looks like 6 or 7 wins tops for the Titans this year.
My ratings favor Jacksonville by 11 points and the Jaguars apply to a very good 30-11 ATS game 1 indicator. I�ll take Jacksonville in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion

NY JETS 20 New England (-6.5) 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 09-Sep-07
The Patriots had an off year offensively in 2006, averaging just 5.2 yards per play (against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), but adding receivers Donte Stallworth, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker will provide a major upgrade for Tom Brady to throw to and I expect Brady to return to the high yards per pass play numbers he had registered in 2004 and 2005. The rushing attack looks like it will be solid with Laurence Maroney taking over full-time duties and running behind a very good offensive line and I rate the Patriots� attack at 0.6 yppl better than average this season with potential to be even better if Randy Moss comes close to his old Minnesota Vikings form. The Pats� defense was solid last season, rating at 0.2 ypr and 0.3 yppp better than average, but they should be even better with the addition of LB Adalius Thomas. New England is also among the best in the league on special teams and I rate the Patriots as one of my top 3 teams going into 2007.
New York was an average team last season and they were lucky to finish 10-6 and to make the playoffs. The Jets were 0.2 yards per play worse than average on offense (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack) and 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive unit) and 1 point better than average on special teams. The Jets should be better offensively, as the addition of RB Thomas Jones from Chicago (1210 yards at 4.1 ypr) gives them a decent rushing attack after averaging just 3.7 ypr in 2006 and quarterback Chad Pennington should have another better than average season. Pennington averaged 6.2 yards per pass play last season against teams that would allow just 5.8 yppp to an average QB and that was right in line with his career rating of +0.4 yppp. While New York will probably be slightly better than average this season on offense it appears as if their defense will be slightly worse than average until they can prove that they can stop the run (allowed 4.7 ypr last season to teams that would average 4.2 ypr against an average team). The Jets are likely going to be a better team overall this season but it�s doubtful that they�ll reach 10 wins and the playoffs given their tough schedule and mediocre talent.
My ratings only favor New England by 3 � points in this game, so it appears as if the Patriots were a bit over-hyped in the off-season. The Patriots also apply to a negative 11-25-1 ATS game 1 indicator that plays against road teams that were 12-4 or better the previous season. I�ll consider New York a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more and I�d take New York in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.

Strong Opinion
Tampa Bay 20 SEATTLE (-6.0) 21
01:15 PM Pacific, 09-Sep-07
The addition of Jeff Garcia to play quarterback will ensure that the Buccaneers will rebound from last year�s 4-12 record. Garcia is not going to put up the numbers he did in Philadelphia last season (6.5 yards per pass play), as the Eagles had better receivers than the Bucs do this year, but he should be around the 5.9 yppp average that he�s produced over the last 3 years with Cleveland, Detroit, and Philly. A decent pass attack will be a huge improvement over last year, when Tampa had to rely on rookie Bruce Gradkowski and the Bucs finished the season averaging an NFC low 5.0 yppp. Tampa�s rushing attack suffered as teams stacked the line with little fear of the pass, but the Buccaneers should be closer to average running the ball this season after rating at 0.4 ypr worse than average in 2006. Overall, I peg Tampa Bay to be 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively after being 0.7 yppl worse than average last season. Tampa�s defense is getting older, but the Bucs should still be a mediocre unit after finishing a bit better than average defensively last season (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense). Tampa Bay plays a pretty easy schedule this season and they look like an 7 to 9 win team to me.
Seattle was a bad team last season but made the playoffs anyway by playing a bad schedule of teams. The Seahawks were out-scored 20.9 to 21.3 points per game and they were out-gained 4.8 yard per play to 5.4 yppl and had worse than average special teams. The offense was hurt last year by a less talented offensive line and an injury to top back Shaun Alexander. Alexander averaged just 3.6 ypr and while he�s likely to top that number this season he won�t come close to his lifetime average of 4.4 ypr, which was helped by a great offensive line. Only left tackle Walter Jones is an above average linemen now that All-Pro C Robbie Tobeck has retired, so Alexander�s days of topping 4.0 ypr are likely over. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck had far less time to throw the ball last season and suffered too many sacks. The results was a horrible 5.5 yards per pass play. I expect the pass attack to rebound this season to an above average level, but not to the Pro Bowl level Hasselbeck was at a few years ago. The Seahawks� defense also fell off sharply last season, as an injury to run-stuffing DT Marcel Tubbs greatly affected the run defense. Seattle allowed just 3.8 ypr in the 5 games Tubbs played in and 4.8 ypr in the 11 games in which Tubbs was out. The bad news is that Tubbs suffered another injury and will not play this season, leaving only untested rookie Brandon Mebane as a legitimate run stuffer. DE Patrick Kearny was added to help the pass rush and to CB Marcus Trufant should rebound from a bad year, so the pass defense should be better than average after struggling last season. The defense looks just average overall unless the Seahawks can find an adequate replacement for Tubbs. Seattle is a better team this season, but they�re just average overall and will struggle to get back to the playoffs. My ratings favor Seattle by just 4 points and Tampa Bay applies to an 89-56-3 ATS game 1 indicator, so I�ll consider Tampa Bay a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more.

Strong Opinion
OAKLAND (-2.0) 23 Detroit 16
01:15 PM Pacific, 09-Sep-07
Lions fans are dreaming big this season thanks to a potential potent offense now loaded with good receivers after drafting WR Calvin Johnson with the #2 overall pick. Detroit should have a much better pass attack with Johnson joining Roy Williams and Mike Furrey, as the Lions lacked a good 3rd receiver last season. However, the offensive line is the league�s worst and quarterback Jon Kitna was sacked 63 times last season, so the line will have to get better before the Lions truly blossom offensively. Bringing running back Tatum Bell over from Denver isn�t going to add anything to the ground game since Bell�s 4.4 ypr was produced running behind Denver�s good offense line and he won�t have nearly that much success without holes to run through. Detroit was 0.1 yards per play worse than average last season (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) despite throwing the ball nearly 70% of the time, but I rate the Lions� attack at 0.3 yppl better than average this season. The offense will have to be even better than that to make up for a defense that was 0.4 yppl worse than average in 2006. That defense will get better against the run with DT Shaun Rogers back after he missed most of last season, but the pass defense will still be bad after losing their best cornerback Dre� Bly to Denver in the trade for Bell. Detroit is still going to be worse than average defensively and worse than average overall this season, but they can greatly improve their 3-13 record if they can just win a few close games after gong 1-8 last season in games decided by 7 points or less.
I knew I would have the Raiders rated higher coming into this season than they were at the end of last season, but I�m surprised by how much the Silver and Black will be improved. Oakland had a very good defense last year, rating at 0.4 yards per play better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team), but their offense was so horrible that that defense was constantly put on the field with their backs against their own goal line. Raiders� coach Art Shell made a HUGE mistake in hiring his old offensive coordinator from the 90�s despite his having been out of football for a decade. The results were horrendous, as the offense was constantly confused and had no belief in the plays that they were running � plays that simply didn�t work against modern defenses. Oakland has no good system for picking up blitzes and the Raiders� quarterbacks were sacked a combined 72 times while Oakland averaged a pathetic 4.2 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) while turning the ball over 46 times. The Raiders new head coach Lane Kiffen was smart enough to retain defensive coordinator Rob Ryan and the defense should be just as good as it was last season with all 11 starters returning. The offense will be much better too in Kiffin�s sophisticated offense and offensive line coach Tom Cable is installing a zone blocking scheme that suits the personnel much better. The Raiders� linemen haven�t lived up to their massive potential because they haven�t been coached up at all. That has changed this year and the Raiders only allowed 7 sacks in 4 games with the quarterbacks no longer taking 7 step drops. The run blocking has also looked better and the Raiders should be a bit closer to average running the ball than they were last year. Oakland�s pass attack will be the major beneficiary of the coaching changes, as both Josh McCown and Daunte Culpepper have proven to be serviceable quarterbacks and the receiving corps is not really too bad at all with Ronald Curry posting an impressive 8.2 yards per pass thrown to him last season and Jerry Porter returning after spending last season in Shell�s doghouse. The Raiders have averaged 5.7 yppp in the pre-season with McCown and Culpepper combining to average a solid 6.4 yppp. I realize that some of those numbers came against second string defensive units, but McCown averaged 5.5 yards per pass play as a starter in 2004 and 2005 in Arizona and Culpepper has averaged 5.4 yppp in his last two seasons, so the Raiders should be somewhere in that neighborhood throwing the ball this year (which is still much worse than the league average of 6.1 yppp). If that is the case then I rate the Raiders at 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively, which makes them a pretty decent team if their defense is once again at 0.4 yppl better than average. That�s actually not that far fetched considering that the Raiders were only 0.2 yppl worse than average two years ago with Kerry Collins at quarterback. If the offensive improvement is as much as I think it�s going to be then the Raiders could be looking at a 7-9 or 8-8 season this year.
My ratings favor the Raiders by 6 � points and the Raiders apply to an 89-56-3 ATS game 1 indicator. I�ll consider Oakland a Strong Opinion in this game at -3 points or less.

**lfp** · 09-06-2007, 11:32 PM

Pointwise Red Sheet

Pointwise Red Sheet

Rating 89: Northwestern 34 - Nevada 14
Rating 89: Arizona st 44 - colorado 14

Rating 88s:
Texas Tech 45 - Utep 13
PSU 37 - ND 10
Hawaii 63 - Louisiana Tech 17

PRO (Rating 88):
San Diego 30 Chicago 16

**Dr Ray** · 09-07-2007, 11:52 PM

Marc Lawrence Playbook

AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
Marc's Awesome Angle Of The Week
Wins 67% In PLAYBOOK Last Four Years!
ATS W-L Record Since 1985: 10-1 (92%)
I'M A LOSER PLAY AGAINST the defending Super Bowl loser in Game One of the season if they are on the road.
Play Against:
CHICAGO BEARS

This coach LOVES stepping outside the conference where his
teams are 62-37 ATS in all games. When playing in these games
off a non-conf game, he's 38-16 ATS, including 21-5 ATS when off
a non-conf win. Who is this week�s noncompliant moneymaker?
Beamer (V. Tech)

THIS WEEK'S AMAZING SITUATIONAL PLAY PLAY AGAINST any non-division NFL team in Game One of the season if they won 13 > games
last year versus an opponent that won < 13 games last year
I�ll bet you didn�t realize that if you
were to �
you would own a sterling 67% ATS
winning record since 1980. That�s
because these over-infl ated Game
One wonders are just 16-32 ATS on
the blind. Better yet, we can zoom
virtually straight to the top of the
penthouse with this angle simply by
making our 13-plus win team a dog
or favorite of less than three points.
Teams in this role are 1-11 ATS. That,
my friend, is a powerful 92% winning
�play-against� proposition!
More importantly, the logic behind
the angle makes sense. Teams who
open the season as popular public
choices tend to carry extra weight.
They are often times a bit full of
themselves, from their success the
previous season, and also perhaps
aren�t quite as dialed-in as they would
normally be in a division game.
Amazingly, there was one qualifying
play on last year�s opening day card.
It occurred when the defending Super
Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers
beat Miami, 28-17. Consequently, it
ended up being the only smudge on
what had been a 0-11 perfect angle
until then. By the way, there is still a
perfect 0-10 ATS twist inside this angle.
To fi nd the qualifying tightener simply
Keithmartinsports dot com

SMART BOX
DANGEROUS DOGS
Game 2 of the College Football season affords the sharp 'capper
many good edges. It�s an opportunity to evaluate the �weight�
oddsmakers assigned to teams for the new season in Week One. It�s
also the time quality teams have a chance to re-assert themselves.
This comes about when we fi nd bowl teams from the previous year
in the role of an underdog. This situation on the blind has seen
these Game 2 bowlers respond with a rock solid 100-74-2 ATS
mark when taking points since 1980. Scan the card this week and
you�ll fi nd a bevy of bowlers gladly taking points. Included are the
likes of � BYU, Cincinnati, Miami Fla, Middle Tennessee St,
Navy, Nevada, Notre Dame, Oregon, Rice, San Jose St, South
Carolina, South Florida, Southern Miss, TCU, Troy, Virginia Tech
and Wake Forest.
Put them in a non-conference clash and they improve to 78-55-1
ATS, including 53-34-1 ATS as single-digit, non-conference dogs.
The best role for these dangerous dogs is backing them if they
were a favorite of 15 or more points in their season-opening
game. These particular heavyweight �pedigreed puppies� are 27-
12-1 ATS, including 23-6-1 ATS when playing a foe off a win (16-2
ATS if the foe won and covered its season opener). Get the
leash out and attach it to a dangerous dog this weekend. They�ll
enjoy the stroll...

The Tennessee Volunteers
are just 3-19-1 ATS at home against
winning teams since 2000.

GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET UPSET UPSET UPSET
VANDERBILT over Alabama by 6
Newlyordained Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban showed an
immediate return on his $4 million a year contract by leading
Bama over Western Carolina, 52-6, while Vandy coach Bobby
Johnson began his sixth year in Nashville with a similar roasting of
outmanned Richmond. The Commodores have certainly controlled
this series lately, going 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings (4-1-1
ATS at home). Vanderbilt has also consistently won the money
in Game Two under Johnson, posting a perfect 5-0 mark. Even
though Saban is no stranger to the SEC road (26-18 ATS away
with LSU), this IS his fi rst trip away from Tuscaloosa with a fairly
green team. Since we don�t take risks on new head coaches as
road favorites, we�ll jam with the Music City boys here.

5* BEST BET
Though he enjoyed great success against the Bulldogs while
at Florida, Steve Spurrier has failed to silence the Dawgs since
arriving in Columbia (0-2 SU). That�s about to change as we check
in with the PLAYBOOK Coaches League (visit PLAYBOOK.com and
enter the HANDICAPPERS LOUNGE) and fi nd that Spurrier has
amassed a 106-31-1 SU & 84-52-2 ATS record in SEC games (13-5 as
a road dog and 7-1 as a RD with revenge). Last year�s 0-18 home
loss marked the ONLY conference home shutout ever suffered by
the Gamecocks� commanding offi cer. With Georgia�s Mark Richt
owning some dreadful numbers against avenging SEC foes, the
best of this week�s SMART BOX comes to our aid and seals the
deal. Cocks drill Dawgs between the hedges.
South Carolina over GEORGIA by 10

3* BEST BET
Big early test for Pat Hill and his Bulldogs as they look to fi ght
back from last year�s 4-8 SU aberration. Another 2007 �mission
team,� Fresno carries a 23-7-1 ATS mark as a non-conference
dog into the fray (15-2-1 ATS versus a foe who won 7 or more
games the previous season, and 7-0 ATS taking more than fi ve
points when playing off a win). Despite a 38-7 season-opening
win over Montana State, the Aggies were actually outgained by
the visitors. Thrown in Coach Fran�s pitiful 4-14 ATS streak as a
favorite of 17 or less points against a non-BIG 12 opponent and
the Bulldogs should take a sizable bite out of A&M today.
TEXAS A&M over Fresno St by 7

4* BEST BET
Aggie QB Chase Holbrook was with current head coach Hal
Mumme at SE Louisiana and will likely develop into another
Tim Couch. Translation: look for NMSU to score points-a-plenty
in 2007. Mumme laid off the gas pedal last week against SE
Louisiana (his former school) but fi gures to open up both barrels
here today. The Aggies have a solid shot at beating intrastate
rival New Mexico for the fi rst time since 2002, especially with
the Lobos losing their season-opener to UTEP. New Mexico
State has brought home the money lately in this series, going
3-1-1 ATS overall while covering three of the past four trips to
Albuquerque. If the Aggies can limit their turnovers, they�ll bring
a few wolf hides back to Las Cruces.
New Mexico St over NEW MEXICO by 7

NFL

5* BEST BET
How good does Jacksonville�s Jack Del Rio feel about his team�s
chances this year? Good enough to jettison former starting QB
Byron Leftwich and replace him with the more mobile David
Garrard. Jags also signifi cantly upgraded a stout defense that
had yielded just 17 points per game for three straight seasons.
Despite the heroics of Titan QB Vince Young, Tennessee lands
on our �play against� list for 2007 after winning 8 games while
being outyarded by 69 yards a contest last season. Jacko is 8-0
ATS in Game One and the SU winner is the Titan series is a highly
profi table 22-2 against the number. With Del Rio standing at
19-9-1 ATS when laying single digits at home, we�ll prowl with
the Jaguars today.
JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee by 17

3* BEST BET
The addition of rangy WR Calvin Johnson alongside WR Roy
Williams give Lions� offensive coordinator Mike Martz a loaded
arsenal to bring to the Bay. When Oakland�s offense takes the
fi eld, however, Detroit could be in danger of being fl agged for
too many men on the fi eld. The reason? Raiders� QB Daunte
Culpepper just might be the Lions� new secret weapon. With
Culpepper a miserable 13-27 ATS as a pick or favorite � and just
12-30 SU versus non-division foes � Detroit�s recent 4-0 ATS run
in Game One looks like a good bet to continue.
Detroit over OAKLAND by 10

4* BEST BET
How can the Bengals be favored in this contest? Cincy is a pitiful
1-7 ATS playing at home in Game One, owns a 2-6 ATS mark on
Mondays and highly-touted QB Carson Palmer can�t even claim
a winning ATS record when playing at Paul Brown Stadium (8-
14-1). Taking the underdog Ravens gets even easier when we
see that dogs in the fi rst Monday Night game of the season have
barked to the tune of 20-8 ATS. The NFL�s best defense taking
points from the league�s worst? We�re there � everytime
Baltimore over CINCINNATI by 10
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