Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Dragon1952 - CFB Week 2

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Dragon1952 - CFB Week 2

    Week 1 recap -
    BYU -4 W
    B.C. -5.5 W
    Cal -6 W
    Pitt -20.5 W
    Tex Tech -9 W
    N.D. -1.5 L
    Duke +4 L
    Fla St -3.5 L


    Week 2

    Virginia Tech +13 @ LSU - LSU perennially beats lesser teams to a pulp, but typically plays the better teams much closer. The Hokies didn't look all that great last week against East Carolina but I think you can chalk that up to being complacent and maybe looking ahead a bit. They did hold them to only 7 pts though. LSU, of course, beat a lesser team to a pulp. I would expect Virginia Tech to be a little more up for LSU and will give the Tigers a little more competition than Mississippi St did last week. Don't expect V.T. to help LSU out with 7 TO's like the Bulldogs did either.

    Iowa -21.5 vs Syracuse - Man, Syracuse looked really bad at home vs the Washington Huskies, who probably aren't all that great really. The Huskies rolled up over 300 yds rushing and held Syracuse to only 8..... 29 rushes for 8 yds??? I hope that's a misprint. Meanwhile, Iowa was racking up 250 yds rushing of their own against N. Illinois while holding the Huskies to only 21 mainly because of the -31 yds rushing by one of the N. Ill QB's. I don't think Iowa is all that great either, but if Washington can beat Syracuse by 30 pts on the road I gotta believe Iowa can do the same at home. Keep in mind that Syracuse finished last year ranked 102nd in scoring and 110th in overall offense and 107th in total defense and 110th against the run. Looks like more of the same this year.

    Hawaii -28 @ Louisiana Tech - Hawaii opened up with a nice 63-6 win over N. Colorado. Scores in the 50's and 60's could be commonplace this year. In fact, they scored over 50 pts 5 times last year with 4 of those games going over 60 pts! One of those 60 pt games was against Louisiana Tech. Final score .... 61-17.....a 44 pt margin of victory. Of course that was in Hawaii but hey, it's only -28 this time.

    TCU +9.5 @ Texas - Texas better be ready because I think they're going to have another game on their hands this week. I'm not sure they're ready for this. TCU has nine starters returning on a defense that ranked second in the nation in total defense last year and third in scoring defense. Texas lost 3 games last year (Ohio St, Kansas St and Texas A&M) and had a couple other real close calls with Nebraska and Texas Tech, and then had to come from behind to nip Iowa by 2 in the Alamo Bowl so they are certainly not invincible. If Texas plays like they did last week they are liable to lose this one outright.

    Penn St. -17.5 vs Notre Dame - For some reason, I was stupid enough to pick Notre Dame over Georgia Tech last week. I learn quick though. What did Notre Dame end up with...about 120 yds of total offense and 3 pts? At home? That team is in bad shape and now they get an even tougher foe and on the road.

    Boise St -2.5 @ Washington - Washington may have looked good against Syracuse but I wouldn't get too excited yet. Boise St is 33-5 SU over the last 3 yrs. They went 16-0 last year and beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. Washington's record over the past 3 yrs? 1-10 in '04, 2-9 in '05 and 5-7 in '06. I guess they are improving but not enough for this spot I'm afraid.

    Virginia -17 vs Duke - I said last week that if Duke couldn't win, or at least be competitive, against UConn then it was going to be another long year. Guess what? A crappy UConn team wins by 31. The last 3 yrs scores between Virginia and Duke have all been lopsided as in 37-0, 38-7 and 37-16.

    West Virginia -24 @ Marshall - Miami rushed for 260 yds against Marshall last week and beat them by 28. West Virginia scored 62 last week and rushed for over 300 yds. In fact, they amassed a total of 542 yds against W. Michigan. Probably a pretty similar result here.

  • #2
    Really like the TCU pick. Was not impressed with Texass' first game. For some reason for the last five years Texas always opens up in the top 10. To me, Colt is not very impressive. I dont know if we will see an upset but I plan for a close game.

    TCU is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Texas is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
    TCU is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road

    Texas 21 Tcu 17

    goodluck this week
    jpehl

    Comment


    • #3
      Thanks for the moral support. It seems like whenever I go against the Longhorns it backfires. I would love to see them get beat here though.

      Comment


      • #4
        Good to see you on the Boise St game - it's one of my big plays this week, but haven't seen a whole lot of others on it. I really like that play.

        I'm also on the Hawaii pick. Thought about the over on that one, but think I'm going to just stick to the side.

        One other I really like is Missouri. Be interested to see what your thoughts are on that one.

        BOL!

        Comment


        • #5
          Boise St is my big play of the week. Boise doesn't lose, they didnt when everybody expected them to in the bowl game and they were underdog last year to Utah and beat them by 33. They were also favorite by only 2 in their game of the regular season and won 38-7. Everytime they get underestimated by the oddsmakers, they come up with a blowout.

          Boston College -14, is my other play. They just got done beating the conference champions by 10 after throwing a pick to the house on the first play of the game. They are now going against an NC State team that was 3-9 last year and lost to Central Florida in their home-opener. NC State is playing a new quarterback and their #2 running back is out. BC went 10-3 last year while going undefeated at home. The 3 they lost were all on the road by a total of 14 points, they could have easily went undefeated. They also have a new quick-strike offense with Matt Ryan running it, so i wouldnt be worried about them scoring enough after throwing for over 400 yards last week.

          Comment


          • #6
            Appreciate the responses. I always welcome and appreciate all comments, good or bad. Hopefully we can all win a little cash this year.

            Missouri @ Mississippi

            Even though Mississippi beat Memphis last week, I wouldn't exactly say they tore them up on offense. They only had 70 yds rushing and another 200 passing, plus they fumbled 3 times. Where they made out was on defense and special teams where they intercepted Memphis 4 times, with one being returned for a TD, and blocked a punt which was recovered in the end zone for another TD. Memphis actually tore them up pretty good with 124 yds rushing and a whopping 343 passing yds. Memphis also had a huge advantage in FD's at 30-19, and time of possession at 33:11 to 26:49. But when you throw 4 INT's and lose a fumble it will tend to negate lots of nice drives.
            The Missouri win over Illinois last week was pretty wild too with Illinois turning the ball over 5 times and Missouri twice. There was also a blocked punt for an Illinois TD, but Missouri got even with a 100 yd fumble return and a 66 yd punt return. If Illinois hadn't fumbled the ball at the goal line it may have been a different story though as that was very likely a 14 pt swing there. The offensive numbers were pretty even but Missouri had a huge advantage in return yds, 179-25. I wouldn't say Mississippi is any worse than Illinois so I would hope Missouri wouldn't give up 435 yds of offense again and expect to win convincingly. I don't seem to do real well picking in Missouri games though so I kind of try and stay away from them.

            Comment


            • #7
              Dragon,
              Do you know much about LA TECH?
              jpehl

              Comment


              • #8
                Actually all I know about a lot of teams is what I can research about them. I can tell you that they only won 3 games last year and that they have a shitload of those same players back this year Also, here's a sample of some of their scores last year, all losses - @ Neb 49-10, @Tex A&M 45-14, @ Clemson 51-0, @Boise St 55-14, @ San Jose St 44-10, @Hawaii 61-17, vs Nevada 42-0, @N.M. St. 50-23. The 3 wins were against Nicholls St, Utah St and N. Texas. It looks like the poor slobs play a lot of road games and lose by big numbers. Maybe they'll be better this year with all those starters back (16 of them!)
                They did win their first game of the year against Central Arkansas 28-7 but if you look at the stats from that game there are some funny numbers. Central Arkansas beat them in FD's 28-13, TOP 37:51 - 22:09, total offensive yds 386-261, plays from scrimmage 94-59 and had 24 less penalty yds! The problem is, Central Ark. turned the ball over 6 times and gave up 161 return yds so it looks like Louisiana Tech was blessed with great field position all day. I don't know if that says that L.T.'s defense and special teams are that good or if C. Ark is that bad. Considering that C. Ark is a middle of the road Div-AA team I would say they were outclassed a bit.

                Comment


                • #9
                  My concerns are with the Hawaii D. Can they hold LA TECH from scoring. Im not concerned with the LA TECH D. IMO Hawaii receivers are to fast for the defensive backs of LA TECH. In the game before Hawaii passed the whole game untill the end where they decided to run. I guess im out thinking my self. JUst thought 28 was a little low IMO.
                  goodluck
                  jpehl

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Here are some pretty good trends I just found.
                    * HAW are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.
                    * LTECH are 6-22 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
                    * LTECH are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

                    Somebody mentioned the over?
                    # Over is 20-6-1 in HAW last 27 conference games.
                    # Over is 30-10-1 in HAW last 41 games overall

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      You should go with the Missouri pick -6, Mississippi is starting off a new quarterback this year and trying to re-build. They had Schaeffer, the transfer from Tennessee starting last year and moved him to Wide reciever this year, hence the int's in the game against Memphis. After last week, there is no way the defensive coaches will allow another team to get back in it after they let Illinois back in it when they were up 37-13 at one point. I think this line is low based on the bad showing of Missouri's defense, but that will change this week against a weaker offense in Miss.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I'm going to add another game. Michigan has come down to -7 over Oregon so I'm going to go with Michigan -7 vs Oregon. I think we'll see a stellar performance out of Michigan's defense this week and I don't think Oregon will be able to contain Michigan's offense. I think this is a real tough spot for the Ducks considering what happened last week.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Dragon what do you think about TCU ML + 280...... Pretty tempting..

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Sorry...been out for awhile. Hope you went with your 'temptation'. Looks pretty good at HT. I'm kinda sucking so far, although my contest pick W.V. pulled it outta their ass. Hope you're doing better.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I dont post CFB bc I suck.... Heres what I was on.
                              Hawaii- 28 loss
                              TCU ML
                              ND under 21 2nd half loss
                              Vtech + 11 1/2
                              Hawaii hurt the worst......... If TCU pulls it off then it will be alright.....

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X