What Am I Missing....? Help

[TonyDiamond]

Ravens at Bengals
I am really having a problem trying to justify how the linesmakers can make Cincinnati a 3 point favorite over the Ravens on Monday night. If you do a raw statistical line on this game, you would have the Ravens favored by 3. The Ravens 13-3 last year, the Bengals 8-8….Ravens defense has a 9.5 point differential to their advantage while Cincy has only a 1.2 point advantage on offense. Ravens held opponents to 12.6 points per while Cincy gave up 20.7. Cincy is 4-11 home in their last 15, Ravens are 12-4 versus Cincy in last 16. Ravens ranked 1 to 5 in almost every defensive category. I can’t see the home field advantage being that much of a difference in this one.
I was about to dump the house and car when I saw this line, but now I am a little scared of something I might be missing. I have fallen into these kind of traps before and I would love to have some feedback. Thanks

[CapperMaster]

1. it's a new season. 2. many are taking Cincy for at least the AFC championship game. 3. Cincy has an explosive offense. 4. Baltimore doesn`t have an offense. 5. one may wonder if that Cincy "D" has improved, if so, watch out. 6. Cincy`s at home. 7. Trends are meant to be broken. There`s my brief analysis.

[Dinger]

My System

I show this game as a Pick'm. I'll take the 3 points, but wouldn't mortgage the house.

[jpehl]

Well if it makes you feel any better the public is all over Cinci -3. To me that makes everything better. Realistically, in the last two years cinc has won both of there home games against the Ravens. Some times the best play is the one you didnt make. Easier said then done I know. I will probably pass on this game, but if I had to choose it would be Balt +3. I think the best pick is the over to me.
Good luck
jpehl

[hart attack]

I have Baltimore MINUS 3 in the 3rd leg of a pleaser. I thought they should have been favored also. McGahee should run for about 455yds and 9 TDs vs that pourous cincy D. (not really but he is a definite upgrade over that fat slob jamaal lewis).

love the over myself.