Sagarin NFL ratings

[dragon1952]

I don't look at the Sagarin ratings at all for NFL but I will look at them occassionally for CFB because there are so many obscure teams. When I say 'look at them', that's about all I mean since I don't think you can put that much credence to them. However, after glancing at these opening NFL ratings I am a little surprised at a couple of them. Most notably, New Orleans. Look at some of the teams he's got rated ahead of them

NFL 2007 Starting Ratings
HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.14 RATING
1 Indianapolis Colts = 29.89
2 New England Patriots = 29.46
3 San Diego Chargers = 25.77
4 Pittsburgh Steelers = 24.76
5 Denver Broncos = 23.79
6 Chicago Bears = 23.33
7 Jacksonville Jaguars = 23.04
8 Philadelphia Eagles = 22.63
9 Seattle Seahawks = 21.93
10 Kansas City Chiefs = 21.88
11 New York Jets = 21.42
12 Cincinnati Bengals = 21.25
13 Carolina Panthers = 20.76
14 Buffalo Bills = 20.50
15 Dallas Cowboys = 20.47
16 New York Giants = 20.28
17 Miami Dolphins = 19.99
18 Tennessee Titans = 19.06
19 Baltimore Ravens = 18.91
20 Green Bay Packers = 18.69
21 Washington Redskins = 18.55
22 Minnesota Vikings = 18.39
23 New Orleans Saints = 18.15
24 Atlanta Falcons = 17.91
25 St. Louis Rams = 17.65
26 Cleveland Browns = 16.48
27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 16.23
28 Houston Texans = 14.67
29 Arizona Cardinals = 14.03
30 San Francisco 49ers = 13.65
31 Detroit Lions = 13.56
32 Oakland Raiders = 12.95

[jpehl]

What is the number to the left?

[dragon1952]

That's their numerical ranking...like the top 25 in CFB. The rating on the right is 'supposed' to be the computer generated power rating. Add 3.14 to this number for home team and then compare to the opponent rating to get his theoretical point spread difference.

[jpehl]

Dragon,
Maybe Im misreading but that looks like garbage. JMO
jpehl

[dragon1952]

Yeah, that was kind of my point Believe me though, this guy is highly respected

[dragon1952]

After that Ind - N.O. outcome, maybe this guy's right!

Here's one you might like better. This is cover.coms. There is no accounting for home field advantage but you can typically add anywhere from 0-4 or so depending on how great you feel the advantage might be. For example, tonites game would have been (-5.94) - (-5.35) = Ind -.59 , then add 3 and you get Ind -3.59. Of course the system was off by about 4 TD's in this case. That's why these are pretty useless, but they do give you a relative idea of the strength of each team compared to another. You just have to figure out how well each team is going to perform that day and which way the ball is going to bounce
1 San Diego -7.65
2 New England -6.74
3 Baltimore -6.63
4 Indianapolis -5.94
5 Chicago -5.84
6 New Orleans -5.35
7 Dallas -4.85
8 Philadelphia -4.83
9 Cincinatti -3.65
10 Seattle -3.53
11 Pittsburgh -2.63
12 Denver -2.28
13 St. Louis -2.22
14 Jacksonville -1.87
15 Carolina -1.49
16 N.Y. Jets -1.45
17 Buffalo -1.37
18 Tennessee -1.25
19 Kansas City -1.01
20 N.Y. Giants 1.31
21 San Francisco 1.93
22 Arizona 2.43
23 Minnesota 2.91
24 Washington 3.03
25 Atlanta 3.18
26 Detroit 3.33
27 Houston 3.96
28 Green Bay 4.34
29 Tampa Bay 4.78
30 Cleveland 5.01
31 Miami 5.32
32 Oakland 5.63

BTW, If Ind was playing Oak it would be -5.94 -5.63 = Ind -11.57 and then factor in home field.

[jpehl]

I like that one alot better. Thanks,post a link to the second one if you have it.
jpehl

[dragon1952]

http://covers.usatoday.com/power-ran...r-ranking.aspx

here's the link.

[chamilun]

as a longtime follower of these rankings, they are very accurate to determine a game winner but not for point spreads.

[jpehl]

Can anyone go into detail how these numbers are produced.
jpehl