The CHICAGO BEARS betting strategy

[Carpet]

The Carpet is screaming at the top of the mountain
to all who will listen regarding making money on the
Bears this year early on....

Until the Bears Offense figures out how not to
lose a game factor in an additional 10 points.

CASE IN POINT

Rex Grossman was sacked 3 times lost 23 yards
and the first sack almost killed him, as this QB lacks
field vision>>>> 52% QB Rating (sounds alot like last year)

4 Turnovers on Offense 1 INT and 3 FUMBLES lost

Cedric Benson Bears RB lost 2 t/o's today one rushing
one receiving (this guy is work in progress) and will
be hurt by week 4.....Mark my words on that.

DEFENSE

This is the Bears staple and Hillenmeyer 8 pegs
Lance Briggs 7 tackels and Urlacher at 5...solid

This D held Tomilson in check and will hold all
teams in Check the whole year, this is the
Best DEFENSE I have seen in a long time.

BOTTOM LINE

I expect the Bears to turn the ball over
on offense more times than expected, the D
will create some takeways but the offense will
not capitalize on the mistake turning it into points
therefore allowing the clock to run.

This QB is unsure of himself in play, lacks
field vision and if he is not getting smashed by an
opposing Line Backer he panicks and gives the ball away.

Until the Bears get the Offense in Gear, and this
is highly doubtful that it will happen (super bowl
caliber) factor in a additional 10 points per spread

Allowing 3 points advantage at home and nothing
on the road ...TO GIVE YOURSELF ANY CHANCE OF COVERING (on the Bears)....

The NFL has got the Bears (Grossman's) number
and as much as Lovie Smith protects this kid
as his number one QB the Bears are not gonna
cover the spread as presented by the Book....

Good Luck to all, thanks for walking the Floor
with the CARPET, I am glad to be back

Good Luck all

Semper Fi

Carpet

[TheBlackCat]

I don't think the outlook is quite that bad. The Bears built up their team against poor competition and given their ability to shut down opposing teams 95% of the time, its only a matter of time for the Bears offense to get lucky and put up points.

Grossman is like a box of chocolates...

[TheBlackCat]

The key thing at this point of the year -- don't get overreact and don't get overemotional. Teams have 1 game in the books. The power standings from now to the end of the year will jumble all over the place. The Saints will score more than 3 offensive points in their next game, and so will the Bears. The two NFC finalists didn't even combine for a single offensive TOUCHDOWN!!

So and so team isn't the best in the world, or the worst in the world. The truth likely lies mostly in the middle of those two extremes. Unless, of course, you are talking about the Patriots and the Raiders (lol).

[Carpet]

BLACK CAT

I appreciate your level headed feed back

The Point remains look for the Bears to turn the
ball over 3 to 4 times a game. This will have
a dramatic impact on covering the spread.

Cedric Benson is unproven and Grossman
is an accident looking to happen against a
aggressive defense. Of course every NFL
Coordinator already knows this.

While the Bears may score more than 3
offensive points next game, they will certainley
give it all back on offense in Turn overs.

My only point is to factor in this information
when you pull the trigger vs the line...

Carpet

[Boone Moone]

Point well taken Black Cat on that pot-shot at the Raiders, but keep in mind that in this era of their "rebuilding", the dismal teams in any sport sometimes have a better record ATS than many other more accomplished teams..............Big shots like the Colts and Patriots and Chargers are usually overbet, thus inflating the line beyond it's value point, and the exact opposite takes place on the low-lifers..........Check the stats over the years.........Believe it or not, I actually made money on the Raiders last year (on the few games that I played them).

This is one of the reasons I lay low the first few weeks...........The oddsmakers get a little sharper as the season progresses, and especially after baseball season ends.........This is where you can grab some real out-of-proportion lines and take advantage of them..........All it takes is just a little patience.............This thing ain't over until February.

[TheBlackCat]

Good point....I'm a points whore like most people here -- give me a real good deal, I'll probably take.

The line against the Broncos looks pretty reasonable valuewise, although a fair line isn't all that bad considering how Shenahan likes to STICK IT to Al every chance he gets.

[TheBlackCat]

Gotta say, I rewatched Cleveland/Pittsburgh last night, and I think Cleveland is worse than the Raiders. And I can say that without having even watched the Raiders. That was a brutal display of "football".

[Carpet]

BEARS KC

Bears opened a 12.5 fav, vs KC and fails to cover

Indeed they would as the Bears have not figured out
how to do 2 things on Offense,

1. Move the ball and
# 2 keep the ball limit turnovers.

Early in my thread I told the world the
Chicago Bears betting strategy early on.

Lets look at the Bears QB......

Grossman passes for 160 yards he threw the rock
34 times for a average of 3.6 yards per pass, that
sucks, what sucks worse is as TRUE TO FORM grossman
threw two picks (14 points gave away)...

Had it not been for the DEFENSE and Hesters
73 yard Return for a TD (Hester set up 10 points total game) this could have been an upset

My betting strategy remains the same for the
Bears early on in the season, factor in an additional
10 points to cover.

I did that and won nicely, Good Luck all

Carpet

Semper Fi

[jpehl]

Im going to have to buy in to your strategy after this game.. I dont think it will be much longer until Rex is replaced...
jpehl

[Carpet]

QB Rex Grossman of the Bears has been
replaced by Back up Brian Griese for next game
vs Lions

A look at the gladiator griese being thrown
to the Lions .........

Stands 6-3 214 lbs, Age 32
10 Years experience, Undrafted out of Michigan

63 % completion ratio career 84% rating
as a QB, keep in mind though this player has
over 16,000 career yards in completion.

Griese has a better vision for the field of play
especially vertically on offense, not very mobile
and certainley not a cannon for an arm. Brian
Griese is more of a soft thrower and doesnt panick

A QB that would more likely take a hit than
throw it in a panick.....

How does this effect my betting strategy on the
Bears................alot...

A 3 point chalk at home the Bears desperate with a new
QB who will make some mistakes,

I dont like
this game either way until we see what the dust shakes
out.

Carpet

Semper Fi

[jpehl]

Its been so long since Ive seen Griese play that its hard for me to remember how he played. I'm glad that you brought this up.... One thing that I do think will happen is much like what happened in Philly last year with Garcia... After Garcia left Cleveland and then Detroit everyone left him out to dry.. I think we will see the same outcome in this situation. Rex was the worst starting QB in the league through week three. I expect the defense and the offense to step there game up with the new change... Granted betting on the bears this week is a gamble , but its not like there playing New England... On the other hand I after watching the SNF game I dont think that Grossman was there only concern on O....Replacing Benson will be there next feat.
If anyone else has anything else to add about Griese would appreciate.
Was he not run out of Denver for similar situation?
jpehl

[khandor]

....Replacing Benson will be there next feat.

Da Bears decision this past off-season to let Jones go unfettered - without an elusive power runner waiting in the wings, as his replacement, to "team" with Benson - was, in fact, one of a handful of key transactions which will have profound effects on how the 2007-2008 season plays out, week-to-week and all the way to the Super Bowl (e.g. SD replacing Marty with Norv; DAL replacing Parcells with Phillips; Moss to NE, etc.).

As you've pointed out correctly, Grossman's dreadful performance, thus far, by itself, isn't the only problem this year in the Windy City.

[Carpet]

Did you factor in the points this week
betting on the bears ????

A sad state of affairs in Chicago football

Carpet says continue the betting strategy
laid out early on to win

Semper Fi

Carpet

[TheBlackCat]

Da Bears decision this past off-season to let Jones go unfettered - without an elusive power runner waiting in the wings, as his replacement, to "team" with Benson - was, in fact, one of a handful of key transactions which will have profound effects on how the 2007-2008 season plays out, week-to-week and all the way to the Super Bowl (e.g. SD replacing Marty with Norv; DAL replacing Parcells with Phillips; Moss to NE, etc.).

As you've pointed out correctly, Grossman's dreadful performance, thus far, by itself, isn't the only problem this year in the Windy City.

I thought their entire offseason was a nightmare. The Bears organization could be looked at as a savy Steeler-like organazation, or you could view them as a bunch of cheap ass Cardinal-type management who don't want to pay their coach, got rid of their defensive coordinator, dumped a running back who was playing great, don't reward most of their players with fair contracts. Its little wonder they are a mess. The team has overperformed for 2 years and what has management done to say "thank you"? Nothing.