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NFL Week 9 leans....

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  • NFL Week 9 leans....

    hey fellas - just building my card here

    gotta admit - i am a square in that i tend to play the favorites more often than not...my mentor once told me that you dont bet the dogs unless you really think they can WIN outright - and then you put a little on the ML too...i play only a few games a week but will say that i am betting the fav 70% of the time...i have had success doing this for many years and the key is to be selective...yeah i take my lumps every now and then when you have one of those upset weekends but i am turning a good profit this season so far...

    played these already:

    NE -5 (-110) for 5 units (max play)
    i played this early before i had time to listen to the noise and talk myself out of it...i dont need to handicap this game or talk X's and O's....Pats are not going to lose this game - i just cant see it....not after last years playoff collapse...do think that Pats lose this year at some point but not in an obvious spot like this....not going to catch myself on the wrong side of the Pats this year....either bet the Pats and lay the points or no play at all....will not be betting against the Pats in foreseeable future

    Dallas -3 (-125) for 3 units (confident play)
    Caveat emptor here as I am a Cowboys fan - Philly has been a house of horrors for Dallas in recent years but my friends - THIS IS NOW OVER... ...sure, could Philly win??? - yeah, i could see it (seen it many times) but i must say that since Romo has been at QB this team has more or less won the games that they were supposed to win with the exception of a couple of games to close out last season (Detroit/Philly)....Donovan McNabb (Professor Klump) has been running his mouth about the NFC having to come thru Philly - that's just what this Cowboys team needs - some added motivation...i think every Cowboy is sick of Philly and coming off a bye (won last 3 SU coming off bye) and nobody is going to argue that Dallas isn't a head and shoulders above this team at this point - Philly has been offensively challenged and had 1 good game against Detroit - Dallas wins this by 10 and Owens has 2 TDs

    any thoughts/comments are welcome

    CF2


    CF2

  • #2
    the rest of the games (none played yet)....just leans...

    Wash-3.5 @NYJ
    well, before last week i really would have liked Wash here...and i truly believe you are never as good or (or as bad in this case) as the week before when you are coming off a blowout (win or loss) so i would have to lean with Wash as they have definitely played better football this season and they should be mad....Jets on the other hand would be the more likely team to pack it in.....liking Washington to win (may buy the hook)

    TB -3.5 vs AZ
    first look - i like TB here for obvious reasons...its a little too obvious in fact...TB been losing players on D to injury...i just dont know here - not brave enough to take AZ though...looks like a pass

    Car +4 @ Tenn
    i haven't been very impressed with Tenn this year - very sluggish on offence....fact in my head is that Carolina is a phenomenal road dog....if i had to play it it would be Carolina and a little on the ML too...no strong feeling though

    Jax +3.5 @ NO
    NO on a little roll but i would lean towards Jax and the points here...i think they can win this SU

    Den +3 @ Detroit
    bounceback for Denver here?? i dont think either team can stop each other and i think i would take points - that being said, after Monday night i just cant bring myself to put ANYTHING on Denver right now

    Minny +7 vs SD
    yeah SD is WAY better at this point - i just dont like this spot for SD...i'll pass before i put money on Minny...even at 7.5 i still cant back Minny

    Oak -3 vs Houston
    of all games mentioned above - i like this one the most...i like Oakland at home only laying a FG...Houston's D is on vacation and O has been turning it over...Oakland is the play

    Cincy -1 @ Buffalo
    actually i have made decent money on Buff the last couple of weeks - my gut telling me though that Buff is not going to be able to score enough to beat Cincy....Cincy is a little more talented on O than the Jets or Ravens

    thoughts??

    CF2

    Comment


    • #3
      Nice write-ups on these games -

      I agree all the way on your 2 top games -- Pats and Boys

      Feel Jets are toast - Pennington might be done -
      I thought Wash was improving game after game then those last 2 were stinkers - but I do feel they will handle the Jets easily.

      The game I don't like that you do is the Tenn / Car game. I am looking for Carolina to finally play a visiting/dog type of game. Tenn with Young should be able to score here.

      Looking for Atl over SF - Atl ofenses have it all over SF defenses in all my figures.

      good luck,
      Bernie

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