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JAGUARS AT STEELERS
1/05/08
8 PM EST
We'll tell you from the get go that had Willie Parker not gone down with a season ending injury for the Steelers, we'd more than likely be looking to play the Steelers in this match up with the Jags. It's extremely difficult to beat a quality team like the Steelers in their own building twice in one year and only a few weeks apart to boot. Matter of fact, in their 75 year history, the Steelers have never lost to the same team twice, at home, in the same season. How important is the Parker injury? He was the NFL's leading rusher when he went down against the Rams. Nuff said.
As we have mentioned many times, the margin between the best and worst in the NFL is thin. Just look at Tampa. Worst to first in one year. So, if the difference in general is thin, you can imagine just how thin that margin is when you're talking about two playoff teams that have won 21 games between them this year.
So why would we like the Steelers so much if Parker was here? Again, it's very difficult to beat a good team twice in their own building a few weeks apart. There are some coaches getting paid very, very well, to make adjustments in order to make sure the same thing doesn't happen again. No question they were soundly beaten the first time around against the Jags. But we're still talking about a 10 win team that was 7-1 at home this year.
Both of these teams are built for this kind of game. A playoff game, in cold weather. Pound the ball. Stop the run. Make the other team make mistakes. Win a close game and move on.
You can't ignore the home field in a game like this. This is why you win games all year. So you can get a playoff game at home in January. We have to believe that Pittsburgh will be able to have a little more success stopping the run this time around. You also can't ignore the home team being a dog. Home dogs are 8-2 against the spread in the Wild Card games since 1978. Underdogs in general, getting 1 to 3 points are 20-14 against the number during the same stretch.
You also have to consider some motivational edge as well. Sure, emotional edges in the NFL aren't as easy to come by as in College ball, but they exist. Imagine you play for the Steelers. Here you are, a 10-6 team, 7-1 at home this year, and all anyone can talk about is how the Jags are built to beat the Pats. The Jags are the one team that can upset the Pats in the playoffs. Jags, Pats, Jags, Pats, Jags, Pats.
Enough already. I'm sick of hearing about it myself. Can the Jags win a playoff game first? Can we take one game at a time please?
But all the Jag praise is warranted. A game like this will be decided by who can run the ball more effectively and who can hold on to the ball and not turn it over. The Jags doubled up the Steelers in total yards in their first game, 421 to 217. They have a QB in Garrard that has only thrown 3 interceptions all year long.
We like to use yards per point to get a snap shot of a teams performance. You can use this stat in a variety of ways, home, away, last 4 games, season to date and so on. Certainly, if you took this stat season to date, and home and away, you could make a nice case for the Steelers. But perhaps it's best to take a look at the 2nd half of the season for both teams. The last 7 meaningful games each team played, to get a better idea of who might come out on top this week.
For the Jags, in these 7 games, they are 6-1 with their only loss being a 3 point loss to the Colts. They outscored their opponents 33-15 in these 7 games, topping 400 yards of total offense in 5 of the 7 games. They weigh in with an 11.7 yards per point on offense and 17.5 on defense for a total of +5.8.
The Steelers are 4-3 in their last 7 meaningful games. They lost to the Jets, Pats and Jags. They outscored their opponents 21-20 in those 7 games. They gave up 421 yards to both the Jags and Pats and 24+ points in each of their last 3 games. They weigh in with a yards per point number of 14.3 on offense and 14 on defense, making them even, or, 0 for a total yards per point number.
So when looking at the most important snap shot in time, which is now, the last 7 games, we see a decisive edge in favor of the Jags on BOTH sides of the ball against a tougher schedule in general. A football season can be broken up into segments, with no segment being more important than the present.
We really wanted to make a case for the Steelers here. Had Parker been healthy, we would have had a stronger argument. In which case, we may have bought this game up to +3 and taken the Steelers and a field goal.
But the Jags are the better team right now, enough so that, even the terrible towels probably can't save them here. We're not going to get involved with the pointspread here and instead will play the money line, with -140 available at many shops.
3* JAGUARS PK -140
PLAYOFF GAMES RATED A LOW OF 1* TO A HIGH OF 7*
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