NBA Playoffs

[dragon1952]

Good job Okur. He comes back in the 2nd H to shoot halfway respectfully and then with Utah up by 8 with around 2 min left he commits a technical. Fisher makes the FT and then a 3 pointer on the possession and it's a 4 pt game. What an absolute freakin' dickhead.

[dragon1952]

In the semi-finals, the home team is now 11-1-1 ATS! I think the Spurs make it 12-1-1.

[dragon1952]

Actually the home teams are 12-1-1, so the Spurs would make it 13-1-1.

[dragon1952]

Next up, Game 4 of the Boston/Cleveland series with Boston up 2-1. Cleveland is 2-1 ATS in the series with Boston so far.
Tonite we have Boston @ Cleveland with the Cavs currently a 2 pt home favorite. Boston feasted on the poorer teams in the East this year in compiling an awesome 66-16 record, 80% wins. But how did they fare vs playoff teams?
How about 27-14 with a 16-5 record at home and an 11-9 record away. And what about the teams that made it to the semi-finals? They were 11-7 with a 7-2 record at home and a 4-5 record away. Those are SU records, BTW. Anyway, it's obvious that they weren't as dominant against playoff teams, especially teams that have made it to the semi-finals and especially on the road. You kind of wonder why they are only a 2 pt dog. They get a lot of respect, like the Lakers who were a PK at game time today at Utah.
LaBron James has still not had a great game in this series. He only netted 21 pts last game and they still won by 24. Of course Delonte West, Joe Smith and Wally Szczerbiak came up big, but what happens when LaBron finally explodes for 35 pts.
I made a mistake in my previous calculations for the ATS records in the semi-finals. The results are actually now 12-2-1 for the home teams. I lost pretty good going against the trend with Boston last time. I won with both Utah and San Antonio today. I'm going to stick with the trends and go with Cleveland -2.

[Swicat]

Cleveland

I agree that Cleveland gets it done easily again. Boston has not sustained an effort on the road yet in the playoffs and I don't see that happening tonite either.

Swicat

[dragon1952]

As one of our fellow members would say, 'winner, winner, chicken dinner'!
Actually I've got a delicious pizza on the way so that will have to do.

Congrats to us Swicat

Home teams now 13-2-1 in the semis.
I definitely like the home team Hornets -3 tomorrow. The other one kind of bothers me since Detroit picked up the win at Orlando last time out. Orlando will be extra motivated to return the favor, but not sure I want to out-guess the current trend either. The line has moved from Det -7 to -6. I'll have to sleep on it.

[dragon1952]

Didn't get in on the start of the Det/Orl game. Waited for a good opportunity and got Det -4.5 for the 4th Q with them down by 3 , which = Det -1.5 for the game. I didn't like the 6 anyway.
Still going with N.O. in the next game.

[dragon1952]

Well that worked out rather well.
In the next game, I got N.O. -3 last night but I see it at -5 now!
Anyway, I like the under 186.5 in this game also.

[dragon1952]

Was able to also get a little more on N.O. -PK in the 1st Q after that Spur run put them ahead.

[dragon1952]

Great night in the NBA for me as I hit all 3 of my wagers. Home teams now 14-3-1 ATS in the semi-finals. I knew I didn't like that Det/Orl line and glad I stayed away.
Tomorrow we have Game 5 in the Bos/Cle series where it's all tied at 2-2. Cleveland travels back to Boston for this one.
And also Game 5 of the LAL/Jazz series where it is also knotted at 2-2. The Jazz have to go back to LA.
The current lines are,
Utah +8.5 @ LA Lakers
Cleveland +8.5 @ Boston
The oddsmakers have stuck to their guns on these semi-final lines for the most part.
Neither home team wants to lose here and have to go back to those two road venues down 3-2. I think they both go for the throat. The last time Boston was in this situation (Game 5 at home vs Atlanta) they won by 25. Plus, Cleveland has only managed 72 and 73 pts in their previous 2 at Boston.

The Lakers have now won all 4 playoff games at home and all by double-digits (average margin of victory 12.5 pts). Utah was lucky to win those two games at home, and they expended a ton of energy in doing so. I think their luck runs out here.
I'm going with both home teams, but I hate those .5 pts so I think I'll buy them off and go with both home teams at -8 at -120 just to be safe.

[dragon1952]

Boston is starting off shaky. I got 2 extra in-running bets in,
Boston -3 2nd Q
Boston -3 for the game

[dragon1952]

Why do the Lakers keep letting this fool Vujacic throw up bricks...Geez Louise he's like 1 for 9

[dragon1952]

Well it was bound to end sometime. Can you freakin' believe it though.....two 1 pt losses. Kobe misses the last FT or else I get a push at least. I did win the Boston -3 in-running bet and also I was able to get the Lakers -4 for the 4th Q with the score tied. I doubled up on that one so all in all I think I ended up damn near even. That was pretty hairy there at the end though and I really expected to lose. I think I need a drink.

[dragon1952]

San Antonio -7
Backs against the wall. The Hornets have been dominated in San Antoine last 2 games. Home team has won and covered every game in this series.

[dragon1952]

All-rightee then! Great job by the Spurs
OK...tomorrow we've got Boston traveling back to Cleveland and the Lakers make the trip back to Utah. The current lines are Cleveland -2.5 and Utah -4.
Boston has not won a playoff game on the road in 5 tries. LaBron James finally had his monster game netting 35 pts, but lost by 7 at Boston. I'm going with
Cleveland -2.5 at home.

As for the other game, Utah has lost twice on the road and won twice at home, although those 2 wins were very tough as both went down to the wire and one made it to OT. I don't think they can do it again. I'm going to go against the trend and go with the Lakers +4 and hope for either a Laker SU win or another last seconds victory for Utah.