Grind it Out-Baseball plays and discussion

[dragon1952]

More Sunday -

Giants +125 @ Oakland - (Sanchez 7-4, 3.98 vs Blanton 4-10, 4.58) - At 4-10, 4.58 Blanton has been the A's least reliable starter whereas the Giants have won in 6 of the last 7 games that Sanchez has started. Blanton's good for at least one dinger per game.

3 team parlay -

White Sox -133 vs Cubs - (Buehrle vs Marshall) - Buerhrle's stats over his last 4 starts are 32 innings pitched (8 per game), 24 hits, 15 SO, 4BB and only 5 runs. After working out of the bullpen all year, Marshall lost his first start 5 days ago lasting only 4.2 innings and giving up 4 runs on 7 hits. He did have 7 K's though in just the 4 innings of work.
Seattle/San Diego OV 6.5 runs -115 - (Bedard vs Peavey) Call me stubborn. Last night I picked the over 8 and these 2 teams only made it to 6 with rag arms pitching. The Padres have a history of making very mediocre pitchers look like Cy Young. But I think these two pitchers are living on their laurels a bit as neither one is quite the same pitcher this year to have such a low total. I'll look for at least a 3-3 game where the winning run can break the total.
Angels -133 @ Dodgers - (Lackey vs Lowe) - Will look for the Angels with Lackey (5-1, 1.65) going to avoid the sweep. Lackey has pitched great in all 8 of his starts and the Angels have won 6 of those games. And in one of the losses (a no-decision for Lackey) he went 8 and only gave up a run on 6 hits but the bullpen blew it for him.

[dragon1952]

Well what do you know....even a blind dog gets a bone sometimes.

[woodee12]

Nice Day! Hope you stay Hot!

Wish I would have followed you!

Nice Job!

[dragon1952]

Thanks woodee.

OK, 3 for 3 and hit the parlay yesterday. Hope I can keep it up.

Monday June 30

Minnesota +108 vs Detroit - (Perkins 4-2, 4.47 vs Galaragga 7-2, 3.32) Two very hot teams go at it. Twins have won 13 of their last 15 games. Tigers have won 17 of last 21. Perkins faced Detroit away about a month ago and got the 'W' going 7.2 innings and only giving up a single run on 7 hits with 4 SO and 2 BB. I noticed that 3 Detroit starters from that game are out for this game, DH Sheffield, C Inge and OF Magglio Ordonez. Galaragga has faced the Twins twice this season and is 0-2 in those games going a total of 12 innings and giving up 9 runs (7 earned) on 13 hits with 7 BB and 7 SO.
Boston +138 @ Tampa Bay - (Masterson 4-1, 3.43 vs Shields 5-5, 3.76) Going to buck the odds a bit and go with the Sox vs the Rays and their 30-13 home record. Boston is 6-3 vs the Rays this year winning all 6 home games and losing all 3 road games. The Sox have been slowly improving their road record which now stands at 19-24. Shields has faced Boston 3 times this year. Early in the season he pitched a complete game shutout at home against them. The other 2 games he got rocked in Boston where he went 0-2 giving up a total of 11 runs on 13 hits. In the first game he lasted only 3.2 innings and in the second game he was ejected after only finishing a single inning after some nasty altercations between the teams. Masterson has faced Tampa Bay once this season where he got a W after going 6 innings and giving up 4 runs on only 6 hits but 2 dingers, one to Carlos Pena and the other to Akinori Iwamura who will be out of the lineup today.
San Francisco +126 vs Chicago Cubs - (Zito 3-11, 5.91 vs Lilly 8-5, 4.74) Going against reeling Cubs who have lost 5 of 6 and will be without RBI leader 3B Aramis Ramirez (55 RBI, 14 HR) as well as star OF Alfonso Soriano who has been out for a while. After going 0-8 to start the season, Zito is 3-3 with a no-decision in his last 7 starts. Lilly is definitely beatable here.
Pittsburgh +138 @ Cincinnati - (Maholm 5-5, 4.41 vs Harang 3-10, 4.51) The Reds have only won in 2 of Harang's last 8 starts. He has faced the Pirates once this year, a home game in which he got the L after lasting only 4 innings and giving up 6 runs on 10 hits. The Pirates have won in 5 of Maholm's last 6 starts. He faced the Reds early in the season and got a no-decision after going 5.1 innings and not giving up a single run on 6 hits.
Cardinals -107 vs NY Mets - (Lohse 9-2, 3.94 vs Maine 8-5, 3.73) - Lohse is 6-0 with 3 no-decisions over his last 9 starts and the Cards have won 7 of those. The Mets coming off of a 4 game set with the cross-town rival Yankees so maybe a let down? Well maybe not but it makes my pick sound better. St Louis has won 2 in a row and still have a decent home record at 23-17. Mets 18-23 on the road.

3 team parlay -
Chicago White Sox -146 vs Cleveland - (Floyd 8-4, 3.39 vs Sowers 0-3, 5.97) Sowers winless in 6 starts. Chicago has won in 7 of Floyd's last 10 starts this year and 5 of the last 6. White Sox have a stellar 27-11 home record vs Cleveland's 15-23 away record.
Rockies -128 vs Padres - (De La Rosa 2-4, 6.23 vs Maddux 3-6, 3.52) - Maddux still getting lots of respect by the oddsmakers at age 42. Bottom line is that the Padres have now lost 8 in a row and 12 of 13 and are 11-25 on the road this year. The Rockies coming off of a horrid road trip that saw them lose all 6 games, but are back home now where they are at least a decent 20-19. De La Rosa's ERA going steadily down from 9.00 on 5/26 to 6.23.
Angels/A's UN 8 runs -EVEN - (Garland 7-4, 4.05 vs Smith 4-6, 3.69) - Angels having trouble scoring runs with only 1 run total in the last 3 games. Oakland with only 15 runs over the past 6 games and 3 times plated 1 run or less. Decent pitching matchup to boot.

[woodee12]

Can't match your write ups!

Cards/Mets UNDER 8.5 (-115)...Maine/Lohse...Think Lohse comes back strong after rough outing and Maine hold game tight.

Oriloes -109 over Royals...See jeff's write up on main page. I can't back the royals on the road here.

Red Sox +130 over D Rays...Little too much respect here and I will take a good dog.

Yanks/Rangers OVER 10 (-105)

looking at San Fran and Minny too.

[Boone Moone]

Nice hit on the Under Cards/Mets Wood..........Tough beat on the Sox/Rays..........get the feeling that the Rays spank them again with Garza at home again tomorrow.......Good Luck.

[dragon1952]

Recap -
1-4 in the straights and 2-3 on the parlay. Some really tough losses with the Rockies killing the parlay by blowing an 8-3 lead. Pittsburgh lead the entire game and then closer Capps serves up a 2 run dinger in the bottom of the 9th. The Twins blew a 4-1, 6th inning lead. And a 1 run loss for the Red Sox. Oh well, sometimes it goes that way.

Tuesday July 1

Oakland -106 @ LA Angels - (Harden 5-0, 2.15 vs Santana 9-3, 3.32) Angels in a huge offensive slump. I won yesterday on the under and was rewarded as the Angels slump continued with just 1 run scored. They have now scored only 2 runs over their last 4 games and it doesn't get any easier today vs Rick Harden. The A's have only lost once in Harden's last 9 starts and in that game he only gave up 1 run over 7 innings. Santana has hit a slight bump in the road as the Angels have only won once in his last 4 starts. Tempting to go with the under here too.
Phillies -105 @ Atlanta - (Kendrick 7-3, 4.59 vs Morton 1-1, 4.24) - The Phillies have only lost 2 times in Kendrick's last 12 starts, a stretch that has seen him go 6-1 with 5 no decisions. Atlanta without Chipper Jones again and not quite the same without him. Phillie bats seemed to have come alive in Texas with 15 runs, 17 hits and 5 HR's in the first 2 games, but then went to sleep again in yesterday's 5-1 loss.



3 team parlay
White Sox -126 vs Cleveland - (Danks 5-4, 2.62 vs Lee 11-1, 2.34) Going with the hot team who have won 5 in a row and 6 of 7. Danks has probably pitched as well as Lee but has not got quite the run support and has faced way more teams with winning records than Lee.
Cards -132 vs Mets - (Wellmeyer 7-2, 3.46 vs Armas NR) - Wellmeyer has really only had one bad outing in his last 9 starts, a stretch that has seen him go 5-1 with 3 no-decisions. Armas hasn't even pitched in the Bigs this year. He was 5-7 with a 2.54 ERA in Triple-A. Cards won big yesterday and have now won 3 in a row. Mets have lost 3 of 4 and have been out-scored 20-6 in their last 4 games.
Florida -140 vs Washington - (Hendrickson 7-6, 5.93 vs Balester NR) As if things weren't bad enough on the injury front for the Nats, now OF Lastings Milledge, their current SB and RBI leader (which isn't saying much), is out. They are also going with a rookie pitcher making his first MLB start. Washington is sitting at 33-51 and in last place, 11 games behind the 2nd place Marlins.

Other possibilties -
Baltimore -121 vs Kansas City - (Liz 2-0, 5.70 vs Hochevar 5-5, 4.60) Royals still on a lucky streak but Orioles do own a nice little 22-13 home record which is even better vs non-division foes at 12-4 (if I added correctly)
Reds/Pirates UN 9 runs -115 - (Volquez 10-3, 2.08 vs Dukes 4-5, 3.99) I think Volquez snaps back into form after that shaky road outing. He is back at home where he is 5-0, 1.83 over 7 starts. Duke has not given up more than 4 earned runs in his last 11 starts.

[woodee12]

1-3 for me on Monday. Some bad beats and some bad plays by me. Balty looked good till the end and Boston was close but that does not make you any money.

Tuesday--

Top play-

Injuns +109 over White Sox...Can't pass up Lee as a dog here even thought they suck.

Boston +100 over Rays...Try them again with the knuckleballer.

Reds/Rockies... parlay


Theese are shoot from my hip plays. I seem the do better playing from the gut rater than looking at it too close.

Passed on:

Mets +120 over Cards
Baltimore -123 over KC

So probably jump on those!

[woodee12]

2 passes win, all the others lose!

I am going to take a break for a bit on the bases. Still will post my thoughts here to stay in the loop but better off not wasting my football bank roll with this shit!

[dragon1952]

Recap of yesterday -
1-1 on the straights with Phillies winning over Atlanta 8-3. Oakland took a 3-2 lead into the 8th but the Angel bullpen (specifically Alan Enbree) blew it for Harden and the A's lost 5-3.
Only 1 of 3 on the parlay with the Cards losing to the Mets 7-4 and Florida losing
to Washington 9-6. The White Sox pulled it out over Cleveland 3-2 in 10 innings.
The 'possibilities' went 1-1 with Baltimore downing KC 7-5. The Reds/Pirates UN 9 looked good with a 3-3 tie at the end of regulation but then all hell broke loose with 5 runs in the extra frames.

Wednesday July 2
Chicago White Sox +102 vs Cleveland - (Contreras 7-6, 3.99 vs Sabathia 6-8, 3.78) Can't quite figure this one out. Chicago has won 6 straight and 7 of 8. Cleveland has lost 4 straight and 7 of 9. Chicago has a home record of 29-11 whereas Cleveland's road record is only 15-25. Chicago is in 1st place and Cleveland is in last place, 11 1/2 games out. Chicago is 8-3 vs Cleveland this year. Somebody must know something I don't.
Boston +127 @ Tampa Bay - (Matsuzaka 9-1, 3.21 vs Kazmir 7-3, 2.28) - OK, this is getting ridiculous. We'll try them one more time. Tampa Bay has not had to face Boston ace Matsuzaka yet and Kazmir didn't last very long in his only appearance vs the Red Sox, so maybe Boston can grab one to avoid a 2nd sweep at Tampa Bay? Maybe not but I'm taking a shot at it.



3 team parlay -

White Sox +102 vs Cleveland(see above)
Padres +137 @ Rockies - (Wolf 5-7, 4.13 vs Ubaldo 2-8, 4.71) Will take my chances with Wolf over Ubaldo who has only earned a W twice in 17 starts, and who should look way better to the Pads than Cook did yesterday. Both teams suck though and the line should be about even so I'll take the +137.
Houston -104 vs Dodgers (Hernandez 0-1, 5.40 vs Kuroda 3-6, 4.04) The Astros playing better as of late and are currently 5-3 on the home stand with two 1 run losses. Speedy Juan Pierre out for the Dodgers. Kuroda, who is 1-6 on the road, has only lasted 5 innings total in his last 2 road starts giving up 12 runs on 12 hits and 4 HR's, and is currently battling a little shoulder tendinitis.

[woodee12]

Extremely selective are my key words from here on out.

Going to look at dogs a lot more as a number of articles on the main page here at BW suggest.

And some totals here and there.

One tonight-

Seattle/Detroit OVER 8.5 (+100)...Silva vs. Verlander. Tigers rocked Silva last time out and Verlander has been good the last few starts but Seattle is finally hitting the ball and winning. I like them in this spot too over a possibly tired tiger team, but hard to back Silva anytime so will just go with the over here.

Thats all for today. happy 4th of july eve.

[woodee12]

Ok one more good spot I see here for a total play--

Mets/Cards UNDER 9.5 (+105)....Both teams will be resting some key players tonight I have heard with the Mets palying Philly in a big series and the Cards battling the cubs. Lack of focus possibly and Boggs has been good for the Cards since being called up. Pelfrey is the wild card here. Still like a low scoring game.

[dragon1952]

Recap -
Went 1-1 with the straights and 1-2 on the parlay.

Thursday July 3

I don't usually look at other people's picks but couldn't help to notice woodee's as he posted first. Not copying you bro, I had this one all picked out ahead of time...hope I don't jinx you!

Detroit/Seattle OV 8.5 runs -105 - (Verlander vs Silva) - Detroit faced Silva twice in the month of May (5/20 and 5/30) and rocked him good both times scoring a combined total of 14 runs on 16 hits in only 4.2 innings. Silva lasted only 4 innings in the first game and didn't even last an inning in the second game. Seattle has also seen Verlander twice only plating 1 run over 6 innings in the first game but tagging him for 4 runs on 8 hits over 7 innings in the second game. Seattle has been playing much better lately with 7 wins in the last 9 games and the Tigers winning 6 of 8 so we'll look for both teams to score.
Oakland +113 @ White Sox - (Duchscherer 8-5, 1.91 vs Vazquez 7-6, 4.49) - Going against the hot Sox based strictly on the pitching matchup. Duchscherer hasn't given up more than 3 runs in any of his 13 starts and has given up 2 or less in 12 of those. In his last 4 starts he's only given up 4 runs and 18 hits total over 30.2 innings. In the same number of starts, Vasquez has given up 19 runs on 29 hits and 13 walks in only 22.1 innings.

Atlanta +105 vs Phillies - (Jurrjens 8-3, 2.94 vs Hamels 8-5, 3.38) -
Jurrjens hasn't given up an earned run in his last 3 starts. Atlanta has only lost once in his last 8 starts. Although Hamels does have a complete game 4 hit shutout to his credit vs Atlanta this year, we'll look for Atlanta to avoid the sweep considering Jurrjens' recent form.

[dragon1952]

Recap
2 out of 3 for Thursday

Friday July 4
Looking at the over night lines
Chicago White Sox RL -1.5 +??? vs Oakland - (Buehrle 6-6, 3.79 vs Blanton 4-11, 4.97) - Blanton has been terrible for Oakland. Buehrle has only given up 5 runs total in his last 5 starts over 39 innings. The Sox get revenge today.
Yankees +110 vs Boston - (Rasner 4-6, 4.42 vs Beckett 7-5, 3.65) - Rasner is 3-1 at home and has only given up 6 runs in the 4 starts. Boston couldn't possibly win 2 in a row on the road anyway, could they?
St Louis +110 vs Cubs - (Looper 9-5, 4.26 vs Zambrano 8-3, 3.13) Cubs only 2-5 on the current road trip. Looper has been pitching well and has only given up 12 runs over his last 6 starts totaling 37 innings. Cards are 25-19 at home and the Cubs are 18-25 away. Cards took 2 of 3 on an earlier series vs the Cubs in St Louis. Good home dog chance.
Minnesota -125 vs Cleveland - (Hernandez 8-5, 5.22 vs Byrd 3-9, 5.26) Cleveland has won one time in Byrd's last 8 starts. Cleveland hammered Hernandez a couple weeks ago in Cleveland but he's turned in a couple of gems since then. Minnesota also hammered Byrd last month, and, Minnesota has won 15 of their last 18 games, are 29-18 at home and 21-16 in the division. Cleveland has lost 5 straight, are only 15-26 on the road and 13-19 in the division. Too many positives in the Twins favor.

[dragon1952]

1-3 yesterday with a tough Cardinal loss. Rag arm Blanton out-pitched Buehrle. And the Yankees wasted some opportunities to get back in it but failed miserably.

Saturday July 5
Not much I like today but will try a couple parlay.

2 team parlays

Phillies -110 vs Mets - (Moyer vs Maine) Phillies are heating back up with 4 wins in a row and 5 of 6 and the Mets just kind of floundering along in mediocrity.
Cards -122 vs Cubs - (Lohse 10-2, 3.67 vs Lilly 9-5, 4.56) Will try the Cards again with ace Lohse going at home.

and

Tampa Bay -139 vs Kansas City - (Sonnanstine 9-3, 4.60 vs Greinke 7-4, 3.65) - The Rays 9-1 last 10 and 15-4 over their last 19 games. Plus they own a stellar 34-13 home record. Hard to pass up vs upstart Royals.
Minnesota -133 vs Cleveland - (Slowey 5-6, 3.47 vs Laffey 4-5, 3.24) - Cleveland has lost 6 in a row and 8 of 10. Twins have won 3 in a rown and 17 of last 21 games. Minnesota 30-13 at home vs Cleveland 15-27 road mark.