Just an observation I made from this weeks Hilton SuperContest consensus picks that were posted in the 'Member's Perks' section. I wish I had last week's picks to compare this to.
34.....CHIEFS.............4.........Raiders....... 28
52.....Bengals............1.........TITANS........ 58
71.....Colts...............1.5........VIKINGS..... 49
53.....REDSKINS........pk........Saints........... 69
50.....Packers............3.........LIONS......... 59
42.....PANTHERS.......3.5.......Bears............5 5
36.....Giants..............8.5......RAMS.......... 59
38.....JAGUARS..........5.5......Bills............ ..96
39.....BUCS................8........Falcons....... 66
24.....SEAHWAWKS......8.......49ers............86
57.....CARDINALS.....6.5......Dolphins..........34
38.....JETS................1.5......Patriots...... .92
72.....TEXANS...........4.5.......Ravens.........2 5
40.....Chargers.........2.5......BRONCOS........87
76.....Steelers...........6.........BROWNS.......6 1
28.....COWBOYS.......6.5.......Eagles...........61
Out of the 15 games (Hou/Bal excluded) there were 7 games where the team picked the most was by a fairly small margin of between 52.7% and 59.1%. Those were K.C., Tenn, Ind, N.O., Det, Chi, Pit). Those teams went 3-4 ATS.
There were 3 games that were picked by 62% of the contestants choosing that game. They were StL, Atl and Ari and those teams went 1-2 ATS.
There were 4 games that were picked by 68% or greater of the contestants choosing that game. Those games were Buf, S.F., N.E. and Den and those games went 4-0 ATS. In fact, all 4 of those were underdogs that won the games outright.
What's the point? Well in tonight's game, 68.5% of the contestants choosing that game picked Philadelphia. As we've seen so far, those games picked by 68% or greater are 4-0 both ATS and SU. So can they make it 5-0 tonight?
I'm sure the 'popular' pick is Dallas....everybody likes Tony Romo and the flashy Cowboys....including me. If you look at the Sagarin ratings, Dallas has a rating of 25.62 and Philadelphia has a rating of 24.19. Add their suggested 3.21 pts for home-field advantage and it makes Dallas about a 4.6 pt favorite. If you use their 'Pure Points' rating, which is supposed to be the better indicator, it drops it a bit to around 4.25. These ratings are a pretty decent indicator of what the point spreads will likely be between any two teams. So you can usually tell if the oddsmakers are padding the spread to take advantage of the public feelings. It appears here that the oddsmakers have padded the line a little bit assuming lots of public action on the Cowboys. The line opened at 6.5 and has gone as high as 7.
In the last 10 match-ups between these teams, Philadelphia is 6-4 SU. They are 3-2 SU the last 5 played in Dallas. Out of those 10 games, Dallas has won only twice by more than this spread. Putting that another way, 8 out of those 10 games have either been a Philly SU win, or a Dallas win by 2 pts or less.
There's obviously no way to predict exactly what will happen tonight, but I guess you could say 'all things being equal', that there is better value in picking Philadelphia. And I don't think a Philly SU win would really shock too many people. Personally, I've got Romo on one of my fantasy football contest teams, and I've got T.O. on a league team and Barber on another, so I'd like to root for the Boys. However, I think I'll play a few sheckles on the Eagles and maybe buy a 1/2 pt to +7...and maybe even a few bucks on them to win SU at +225. The under 46.5 also seems like a decent bet too as both offenses will be facing pretty tough matchups.
34.....CHIEFS.............4.........Raiders....... 28
52.....Bengals............1.........TITANS........ 58
71.....Colts...............1.5........VIKINGS..... 49
53.....REDSKINS........pk........Saints........... 69
50.....Packers............3.........LIONS......... 59
42.....PANTHERS.......3.5.......Bears............5 5
36.....Giants..............8.5......RAMS.......... 59
38.....JAGUARS..........5.5......Bills............ ..96
39.....BUCS................8........Falcons....... 66
24.....SEAHWAWKS......8.......49ers............86
57.....CARDINALS.....6.5......Dolphins..........34
38.....JETS................1.5......Patriots...... .92
72.....TEXANS...........4.5.......Ravens.........2 5
40.....Chargers.........2.5......BRONCOS........87
76.....Steelers...........6.........BROWNS.......6 1
28.....COWBOYS.......6.5.......Eagles...........61
Out of the 15 games (Hou/Bal excluded) there were 7 games where the team picked the most was by a fairly small margin of between 52.7% and 59.1%. Those were K.C., Tenn, Ind, N.O., Det, Chi, Pit). Those teams went 3-4 ATS.
There were 3 games that were picked by 62% of the contestants choosing that game. They were StL, Atl and Ari and those teams went 1-2 ATS.
There were 4 games that were picked by 68% or greater of the contestants choosing that game. Those games were Buf, S.F., N.E. and Den and those games went 4-0 ATS. In fact, all 4 of those were underdogs that won the games outright.
What's the point? Well in tonight's game, 68.5% of the contestants choosing that game picked Philadelphia. As we've seen so far, those games picked by 68% or greater are 4-0 both ATS and SU. So can they make it 5-0 tonight?
I'm sure the 'popular' pick is Dallas....everybody likes Tony Romo and the flashy Cowboys....including me. If you look at the Sagarin ratings, Dallas has a rating of 25.62 and Philadelphia has a rating of 24.19. Add their suggested 3.21 pts for home-field advantage and it makes Dallas about a 4.6 pt favorite. If you use their 'Pure Points' rating, which is supposed to be the better indicator, it drops it a bit to around 4.25. These ratings are a pretty decent indicator of what the point spreads will likely be between any two teams. So you can usually tell if the oddsmakers are padding the spread to take advantage of the public feelings. It appears here that the oddsmakers have padded the line a little bit assuming lots of public action on the Cowboys. The line opened at 6.5 and has gone as high as 7.
In the last 10 match-ups between these teams, Philadelphia is 6-4 SU. They are 3-2 SU the last 5 played in Dallas. Out of those 10 games, Dallas has won only twice by more than this spread. Putting that another way, 8 out of those 10 games have either been a Philly SU win, or a Dallas win by 2 pts or less.
There's obviously no way to predict exactly what will happen tonight, but I guess you could say 'all things being equal', that there is better value in picking Philadelphia. And I don't think a Philly SU win would really shock too many people. Personally, I've got Romo on one of my fantasy football contest teams, and I've got T.O. on a league team and Barber on another, so I'd like to root for the Boys. However, I think I'll play a few sheckles on the Eagles and maybe buy a 1/2 pt to +7...and maybe even a few bucks on them to win SU at +225. The under 46.5 also seems like a decent bet too as both offenses will be facing pretty tough matchups.
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