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No strong opinions here, just a small preference in both games.
Ball St -9 vs Northern Illinois
At first look, NIU looks like a solid dog. But they are
going with a redshirt freshman at QB and if you can control
the running game he's probably not going to beat you with
his arm (last week, 5-of-12 for 45 yards , 0 TD's and 2
INT's and they are last in the MAC in passing offense).
Ball St leads the MAC in total offense and they are 4th in
total defense. NIU leads the MAC in rushing and passing
defense. But NIU has probably only faced 2 teams with
decent offenses (Minnesota and W. Mich). Minnesota tagged
them for 31 pts and over 425 yds of offense, including QB
Adam Weber's 24 of 37 for 298 yds and 2 TD's. And W. Mich.
tagged them for 29 pts, 200 yds rushing plus QB Hiller's 21
of 30 for 186 and 3 TD's.
Ball St is averaging 40.5 pts per game at home this year,
and their smallest margin of victory in all 8 wins overall
has been 12 pts. Ball St has a huge edge at QB and in the
passing game with QB Nate Davis and his 2000 yds, 15 TD's
to just 5 INT's and 66.7% completion percentage, and they
have the better running game with Miquale Lewis and his 989
yds, 5.8 ypc average and incredible 14 TD's. They have only
turned the ball over 8 times all year. And they are at
home.
NIU has only played 3 road games all year, and this will be
their first since Oct 4. To their credit, they have not
lost a game by more than 4 pts and they have only turned
the ball over 9 times. But this is the best all-around team
they have faced this year, with a great offense and a very
good defense. I think NIU is too one-dimensional on offense
to stay within 10 pts. I think they can keep it close with
their defense for awhile, but Ball St will pull away in the
2nd half like they did last game vs E. Mich when they
scored 28 2nd H points.
I believe the stats of both defenses reflect a pretty easy
schedule against a large number of offensively-challenged
teams, so I would expect offense to play a bigger part in
the outcome of this game. Ball St in the range of around
31-17 or so.
Toledo +6.5 @ Akron -
This will be Akrons first game in the last 18 days. The 2
bye weeks in a row can't possibly help them, I don't
believe. Besides that, they are 0-3 at home this year
losing to Ball st by 17, Cincinnati by 2 and Bowling Green
by a TD. Akron is next to last in the conference in total
defense, giving up an average of over 400 yds of offense
per game. And they are dead last in rushing defense giving
up an average of 211 yds per game.
Both teams appear to be in the middle of the pack, to lower
3rd of most conference categories. For the most part,
Toledo has been pretty offensively-challenged, but what
stands out for them is the way they hung with Fresno St in
that 55-54 2OT loss, and the 13-10 win at Michigan.
They are just 1-3 in conference, but one loss was just a 1
pt decision vs 5-0 C. Michigan less than 2 weeks ago, and
the other 2 were against Ball St and N. Illinois, so that's
3 teams with a combined MAC record of 13-1.
Akron's 2 conference wins were by a combined 10 pts against
Kent and E. Michigan who have a combined conference record
of 2-9. I think Toledo can hang in there in this one, if
not even steal a win as they've got 2 road wins already.
I'd be tempted to buy the 1/2 pt to make that one Toledo plus a full TD though.
Ball St -9 vs Northern Illinois
At first look, NIU looks like a solid dog. But they are
going with a redshirt freshman at QB and if you can control
the running game he's probably not going to beat you with
his arm (last week, 5-of-12 for 45 yards , 0 TD's and 2
INT's and they are last in the MAC in passing offense).
Ball St leads the MAC in total offense and they are 4th in
total defense. NIU leads the MAC in rushing and passing
defense. But NIU has probably only faced 2 teams with
decent offenses (Minnesota and W. Mich). Minnesota tagged
them for 31 pts and over 425 yds of offense, including QB
Adam Weber's 24 of 37 for 298 yds and 2 TD's. And W. Mich.
tagged them for 29 pts, 200 yds rushing plus QB Hiller's 21
of 30 for 186 and 3 TD's.
Ball St is averaging 40.5 pts per game at home this year,
and their smallest margin of victory in all 8 wins overall
has been 12 pts. Ball St has a huge edge at QB and in the
passing game with QB Nate Davis and his 2000 yds, 15 TD's
to just 5 INT's and 66.7% completion percentage, and they
have the better running game with Miquale Lewis and his 989
yds, 5.8 ypc average and incredible 14 TD's. They have only
turned the ball over 8 times all year. And they are at
home.
NIU has only played 3 road games all year, and this will be
their first since Oct 4. To their credit, they have not
lost a game by more than 4 pts and they have only turned
the ball over 9 times. But this is the best all-around team
they have faced this year, with a great offense and a very
good defense. I think NIU is too one-dimensional on offense
to stay within 10 pts. I think they can keep it close with
their defense for awhile, but Ball St will pull away in the
2nd half like they did last game vs E. Mich when they
scored 28 2nd H points.
I believe the stats of both defenses reflect a pretty easy
schedule against a large number of offensively-challenged
teams, so I would expect offense to play a bigger part in
the outcome of this game. Ball St in the range of around
31-17 or so.
Toledo +6.5 @ Akron -
This will be Akrons first game in the last 18 days. The 2
bye weeks in a row can't possibly help them, I don't
believe. Besides that, they are 0-3 at home this year
losing to Ball st by 17, Cincinnati by 2 and Bowling Green
by a TD. Akron is next to last in the conference in total
defense, giving up an average of over 400 yds of offense
per game. And they are dead last in rushing defense giving
up an average of 211 yds per game.
Both teams appear to be in the middle of the pack, to lower
3rd of most conference categories. For the most part,
Toledo has been pretty offensively-challenged, but what
stands out for them is the way they hung with Fresno St in
that 55-54 2OT loss, and the 13-10 win at Michigan.
They are just 1-3 in conference, but one loss was just a 1
pt decision vs 5-0 C. Michigan less than 2 weeks ago, and
the other 2 were against Ball St and N. Illinois, so that's
3 teams with a combined MAC record of 13-1.
Akron's 2 conference wins were by a combined 10 pts against
Kent and E. Michigan who have a combined conference record
of 2-9. I think Toledo can hang in there in this one, if
not even steal a win as they've got 2 road wins already.
I'd be tempted to buy the 1/2 pt to make that one Toledo plus a full TD though.
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