Dinger's Super Bowl Pick

[Dinger]

Last Week: 0-2
Playoffs: 6-4

Developed my own system about 5 years ago. Points, yardage , time of possession, turnovers, strength of schedule just to name a few indicators.
(Excel Spreadsheet)

Arizona vs Pittsburgh
Dinger's System: Pitt -8
Las Vegas: Pitt -6.5
Difference: 1.5

Buyer beware!!! My system has the Cards underrated due to huges loses to Minn / Ne and Phl (Regular Season). System is strictly a number crunch with zero bias.

I'm sticking with my system and taking the Steelers -6.5.

As a Cardinals fan however.. I'll be routing for the Cardinals...nice run.

[Dinger]

I'm already second guessing my pick.

[Bettorsworld]

If possible, you should try to use some sort of a filter so that you can only include the games you want.....ie toss out the Vikings and Pats to attempt to get a better indication........might be interesting to see those results.

[dragon1952]

I would actually love to see Arizona win, but I don't think I could bet against that Steeler defense. I think I'm going to stick with my first impression, which was Steelers by at least 10. Arizona won't be able to run. The Steelers held Sproles and McGahee/McClain/Rice to a total of 80 yds on 33 carries (2.4 ypc). Warner will have to throw 40 or 50 times, which means at least 2 INT's, maybe 3, plus a fumble and around 5 sacks and a defensive TD. Pittsburgh should be able to move the ball for a change. Arizona gave up an NFL high 36 passing TD's, which is 9 more than the next worse team. Even if you throw out their worst games (like Favre's 6 TD's), that's still way up there. I think the fairy tale is over.

[dragon1952]

Some more:
The Steelers defense is ranked #1 in the NFL in total yards allowed (#1 in passing yds/#2 in rushing yds), #1 in yds per game allowed, giving up a paltry 237 ypg on avg., #1 in pts allowed (13.9 per game), #1 in yds per play allowed (3.9), #1 in TD's allowed (19) and #11 in FG's allowed (24). They have only given up 12 TD passes all year, which is tied for #2. In contrast (and as previously mentioned), Arizona has given up 36 TD passes, which is worst in the NFL and 9 more than the next worse team. The Cards have also given up 203 more pts, 72 more FD's and 1500 more yds than the Steelers.
Arizona will be playing in the eastern time zone where they are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS this year (Carolina is the only team they covered against x 2). In their 4 non-covers, they lost all of them by 7 or more. Yes, 2 of those losses were in garbage time, which is a defense I have used for Arizona up till now, and 2 of them were in nasty weather, but 3 of those losses were also by 21, 28 and 40 pts.

[Dinger]

If possible, you should try to use some sort of a filter so that you can only include the games you want.....ie toss out the Vikings and Pats to attempt to get a better indication........might be interesting to see those results.

My girlfriend sayed the same thing, but I would have to add in personal bias to each team on what games to filter and which ones to leave alone.

I used to use the systems to 8 games and then
I would pick the top 5. Of course Murphy's Law the ones I picked lost and the ones ommited won. So now I stick with it thick or thin.

Except maybe this week????

[widestrides]

Good points dragon. I respect that Steeler D, just not their O. But they showed some O against NE late in the season and against SD.

I agree, AZ will not be able to run. But it's possible the AZ D holds up, especially if Hines Ward is out or less than 100%.

Does that point to the under? Hmmm? I'm no good at totals.

How about Edgerin James and Hightower under the yards? Probably too low to consider.

GL

[widestrides]

Line has moved to a solid -7. Others looking at those same numbers dragon referred to?!

[Dinger]

I'm going to try and fiddle in the middle with some strategy this week.

I'm going to pick the Arizona Cardinals +6.5 in the contest...going against my system.

I'm in Las Vegas this weekend and here are my thoughts.

Take the Cardinals in the contest

Bet the Steelers on the money line.

If the Cardinals win...I get at least 2nd place in contest, lose money line bet.

If Steelers win by 7 or more. Win Money line bet, probabally lose in contest.

Here is the good part.
Steelers win by 6 or less. win at least 2nd place in contest and win ML bet.
Win...win situation.

In reality...as a Cardinal fan since 1989...would love to see the Cardinals
win the Super Bowl straight-up.

[daddyd]

I love that everyone is on the steelers that just made me bet arizona and the points. Would have had a sweep in the last week if flacko doesnt throw pick run all the way back.
I prob will lose but Im buckin the odds with the under dog and the points.
Gonna take the better team on offence and the team that won last time and the points. Fade me you had better take the steelers.

[Rick]

I am a fan of Arizona but I do think they WIN