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Early lines at sports.com sportsbook.
UConn -4
Mich St +4 135
North Carolina -7.5
Villanova +7.5 160
My first reaction, right off the top of my head without thinking much about it, would be UConn -4 and Villanova +7.5.
Villanova is playing very well right now to be a 7.5 pt dog, and I didn't expect Michigan St to make it this far. But they will be playing in Detroit, which will likely be a plus for the Spartans, as Lansing is less than 100 miles away.
I was reading an article by Jim Feist on The Sports Network, and he lists the Final Four results from the past 7 years, which is a total of 14 games. If you look at the results, the underdog has gone 9-5 ATS, with eight dogs winning SU. He does point out that the favorite is 5-3 ATS in the last 4 years though, but still, in those games there have been 3 dogs winning SU. Something I noticed though, is that in looking over the results of the last 7 yrs, only one of those 14 games did the point spread even come into play. That was in 2004 where UConn, as a -2 pt favorite, only beat Duke by a point in a 79-78 game. In 13 of the 14 games, the favorite either covered easily, or the under dog won outright.
So, kind of like in the NFL, you pick the winner of the game and forget the spread! Easier said than done, I guess.
What's weird, is that these stats show that all the teams are competitive in this round, meaning anyone can win, as evidenced by the dogs 8-7 SU record. But the games themselves seldom seem to be competitive. In the last 4 yrs, in 7 of the 8 games the winning margin has been in double-digits, with the average margin of victory being 13.75 pts. And in the last 7 yrs, in 11 of the 14 games the winning margin was 9 or more. And even those under dog SU wins, the margin of victory in 7 out of 8 of them was 9 pts or greater.
What all of this may tell you, is that if you pick Michigan St +4 and/or Villanova +7.5, the stats over the past 7 yrs don't support the likelihood of those teams losing the games and still covering the spread! But anything can happen, of course. Maybe this will be the time they will.
BTW, that -7.5 N.C. spread is the largest spread there has been in the last 7 yrs. Oklahoma was a -6.5 favorite in 2002 and got beat by Indiana by 9 pts. And Florida covered easily as a -6 favorite in 2006 over George Mason. All of the rest of the spreads were between 1 and 4.5, with the average being 2.6.
UConn -4
Mich St +4 135
North Carolina -7.5
Villanova +7.5 160
My first reaction, right off the top of my head without thinking much about it, would be UConn -4 and Villanova +7.5.
Villanova is playing very well right now to be a 7.5 pt dog, and I didn't expect Michigan St to make it this far. But they will be playing in Detroit, which will likely be a plus for the Spartans, as Lansing is less than 100 miles away.
I was reading an article by Jim Feist on The Sports Network, and he lists the Final Four results from the past 7 years, which is a total of 14 games. If you look at the results, the underdog has gone 9-5 ATS, with eight dogs winning SU. He does point out that the favorite is 5-3 ATS in the last 4 years though, but still, in those games there have been 3 dogs winning SU. Something I noticed though, is that in looking over the results of the last 7 yrs, only one of those 14 games did the point spread even come into play. That was in 2004 where UConn, as a -2 pt favorite, only beat Duke by a point in a 79-78 game. In 13 of the 14 games, the favorite either covered easily, or the under dog won outright.
So, kind of like in the NFL, you pick the winner of the game and forget the spread! Easier said than done, I guess.
What's weird, is that these stats show that all the teams are competitive in this round, meaning anyone can win, as evidenced by the dogs 8-7 SU record. But the games themselves seldom seem to be competitive. In the last 4 yrs, in 7 of the 8 games the winning margin has been in double-digits, with the average margin of victory being 13.75 pts. And in the last 7 yrs, in 11 of the 14 games the winning margin was 9 or more. And even those under dog SU wins, the margin of victory in 7 out of 8 of them was 9 pts or greater.
What all of this may tell you, is that if you pick Michigan St +4 and/or Villanova +7.5, the stats over the past 7 yrs don't support the likelihood of those teams losing the games and still covering the spread! But anything can happen, of course. Maybe this will be the time they will.
BTW, that -7.5 N.C. spread is the largest spread there has been in the last 7 yrs. Oklahoma was a -6.5 favorite in 2002 and got beat by Indiana by 9 pts. And Florida covered easily as a -6 favorite in 2006 over George Mason. All of the rest of the spreads were between 1 and 4.5, with the average being 2.6.
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