Is betting the RL -1 1/2 +juice a sucker bet?

[widestrides]

Baseball newbie here.

Is betting the RL -1 1/2 +juice a sucker bet?

Seems like a good deal to me. You get the favorite team PLUS the added juice. Sure you have to cover the -1 1/2 but are there that many games that the favorite only wins by 1?

Must be. Can't be any easy wagers.

[Bettorsworld]

It's like anything else......there are good and bad bets when laying 1.5 runs. I'd say more bad than good.

Sharp players tend to take +1.5 runs more often than laying the runs.

You'd have to convert the run line into a moneyline to see if there was any value either way. That can be tricky, as the run line is dependent on many things....such as the total in the game, home/away, etc.etc.

Baseball (like all sportsbetting) is strictly a mathematical game. Run lines are set with the probabilities in mind.

In general, laying 1.5 runs to avoid paying the high juice on the fav isn't advised. (laying the high priced fav isn't advised either)

[widestrides]

Yeah, I guess I'm learning that playing a steady diet of value underdogs is the way to go in the long grind of MLB.

It's just that on the surface it seems that most favs would win by 2 or more. But the stats must prove otherwise. I'll try to find some.

I guess a number of favs win by 1 and if you add those to the number that lose SU, it makes the RL -1.5 a bad deal in the long run. Maybe you gotta find the favs with the hot bats. But that will all be baked in and they would pay less juice I suppose.

No free lunch in the wagering world. But at least Sports gaming is a much more a level playing field than the "legal" stock market. There's where you'll find the cheating, manipulation and corruption, where some big players have significant advantages over other investors. Inside info, dirty tricks, naked short selling, etc.

[Bettorsworld]

I think it's roughly 28% of all games that end one run....then there's the variables. For example, the home teams probably win around 18% by one while road teams are somewhere around 11 or 12%.


The totals come into play as well here. A high total game is less likely to land 1 while a total of 7 is more likely to land 1.

All of this is reflected in the prices.

If you can determine the exact percentages based on a few seasons data, you'd be able to determine what the correct price should be in relation to each moneline and total. Then, you could go about finding an edge.

There are edges but there are also others out there looking to take advantage of them, so you have to be quick. The edges don't stay on the board long.

As for the stock market, I agree!!

[widestrides]

Good points. Home teams might cover by 1 more often in those bottom of the ninth or extra inning wins where the game ends when they get that one run lead.

And yes, also the total can give you an idea of the chance of it landing on 1, but as you say, that is already figure in.

These days, so much is already figured in and the lines are sharp, we might as well flip a coin. But no, there is an edge to be found somewhere.

Or it makes you want to apply something that no one else is using. Like astrology!

[woodee12]

I know ferringo over at Doc's has some crazy system he uses where he bets the ML and the RL when he sees a strong situation for the Fav. So basically it makes the overall line -1.

If the fav wins by 2, you win both, but if they only win by 1 you break even.

So if Team A was -145 ML and -1.5 (even) on the RL, if that could happen?, he is betting both bets for a portion of his wager.

There is some complicated math involved I think, and you need load of stats to back it up, but I think he does pretty well at it.

Has anyone heard of that?

Its not for me personally. I like really small favs, or dogs myself, or totals at times. Everytime I bet a RL -1.5, I lose by that 1/2 run.

[RAW]

Hi Widestrides,
Like you, I most often prefer playing the dog or small favorite, and I'm always looking for a high percentage totals baseball system as I would be perfectly happy with simplicity of that. Still, I like the runline once in awhile when I see a good chance for a team to win by at least 2 runs (usually determined by a great pitching advantage) I love the odds you get.
RAW

[widestrides]

What about betting the ML dog + the juice and the RL fav -1.5 + the juice?

As long as your fav doesn't win by exactly 1, you're going to split the games and take home the juice on the winning side, right?

Sounds good but let's see how many 1 run wins by the fav could spoil the fun as you lose both ways if that happens.

What % of favs win by 1 run over the long haul?

Or as Jeff says, if you can find an edge based on home, away and totals on which RLs -1.5 to take you might discover a few value plays.