Week 1 NCAA Football Plays

[Rick's Picks]

Here are my lone NCAAF Thursday/Friday play. I will have Saturday games finalized by Friday night.

2* TROY -7 over Bowling Green (Thursday)

Troy: Bowling Green should be a double digit dog in this game, but their reputation is keeping the line lower than I think it should be. This is certainly going to be a down year for them with just 10 returning starters and a new head coach. Troy certainly gained confidence last year when they had LSU on the ropes and played Ohio State tough. Expect for them to build on last year this go around. Troy is a very impressive 20-6 ATS in lined regular season games dating back to week 8 of the 2006 season. They also qualify in a 92-64-1 ATS angle that dates back to 1980, and that angle is 49-20-1 ATS since 1997. I’ll lay the touchdown here with Troy.

[Rick's Picks]

Here is the rest of my week 1 card. Nothing from me on Sunday or Monday......

Saturday College Football Plays

5* NAVY over Ohio State
5* GEORGIA over Oklahoma State
5* VIRGINIA TECH over Alabama
2* OHIO over UConn
2* SYRACUSE over Minnesota
2* AUBURN over LA Tech
2* LSU over Washington

NAVY: Navy is an incredible 58% ATS in the dog role for their 191 dog appearances since 1980, and it’s a trend that has continued over and over with their recent run of 21-11 ATS in the dog role since 2003. It really doesn’t matter who they lose personnel wise, as long as they maintain their “flexbone” offensive system of which focuses on running the ball. Simply put, it keeps the other team’s offense off the field, tires out the opposing defense, and runs clock. Ohio State does not see anyone that plays a “flexbone” offense, and it is impossible for teams to emulate in practice. Expect Navy to have plenty of success, especially early in the game. Ohio State is certainly the more talented team, but they have been that in many other games where they came up short. As a matter of fact, Ohio State is just 6-14-1 ATS last 21 times they have been favored by 20 or more points versus a non-conference opponent. The Buckeyes also have a huge revenge game next week against a USC team that beat them 35-3 last season, so this is a certain look ahead situation for the Buckeyes. Take the points here in a top-rated 5*.

GEORGIA: Georgia has a long history of success in non-conference play and that has also been the case in road non-conference games as they are 11-1 both straight-up and against the spread (ATS) in road non-conference play since 1991. They also have a long history of success as road dogs going 15-5 ATS last 20 times they have been placed in that role (includes 4-0 ATS in non-conference games). Georgia has a very experienced offensive line, and Oklahoma State is not a defensive team that really pressures a QB or holds the line versus the run. Sure, Georgia has a new QB with Stafford gone, but Cox is not new to the team and actually did start ahead of Stafford back in 2006 for a short time. I think Stafford’s departure actually gives us value here since he was such a big part of Georgia’s offense last year, but I believe Cox can continue in the same way especially if that offensive line gives him as much time as I expect. Oklahoma State has never come into a season with expectations as high as this season after starting last year 9-0 before losing their last four (including their bowl). I think those dreams get shattered right here in week 1.

VIRGINIA TECH: Virginia tech has a long history of success as dogs going 52-33-2 ATS in that role since 1985, 16-6 ATS in that role since 1998, and 13-4 ATS in that role since 2001. Similarly, they are awesome in non-conference play going 70-44-2 ATS non-conference since 1985, 33-20-1 ATS non-conference since 1998, and 22-16-1 ATS since 2001. Combine the two and they are an incredible 25-14-1 ATS as non-conference dogs since 1985. Meanwhile, Alabama is just 14-19 ATS since 2000 as non-conference favorites. Virginia Tech is a much better team that they were last year with 15 returning starters, and they will be hyped to redeem themselves after losing their opener last year to East Carolina. Look for the Hokies to be ready this go around.

OHIO U: UConn opens the season after winning 8 games a year ago (including their bowl game) against a MAC opponent that was just 4-8 a year ago. Despite Ohio’s poor showing in the standings, they were a competitive team as four of their eight losses were by single digits and they finished with a winning spread record at 6-5-1 ATS, including a 3-0 ATS mark in non-conference dog games. UConn has North Carolina and Baylor on deck the next two games, so look for a potential look-ahead here with Ohio U not really on their preseason radar scope.

SYRACUSE: Things can’t get any worse for the ‘Cuse faithful then they’ve been the last few years. However, they have the potential to be a much better team this year and surprise a lot of folks. They finally have chosen an offense and have a new coach that knows that side of the ball. They also have a leader at the QB position in former Duke pointguard Greg Paulis. Head coach Marrone has sent a message loud and clear to his team that he expects them to work hard and win. He has went through the roster and dumped all those that didn’t fit. Syracuse’s troubles of the last few years are what makes this line what it is, inflated in my opinion, and Syracuse has a long history of playing well as home dogs going 26-17 in that role over the years. There is definitely excitement in the air around the Carrier Dome. And, I expect Syracuse to be fired up to show themselves off a little. Final note: Minnesota is just 2-7 ATS since 2007 in non-conference games (includes bowl game last year). Take the points!

AUBURN: Similar to Syracuse above, there is a lot of excitement in the air around Auburn. After missing the bowl season for the first time in a while last year with a losing season (first since 1999), they have brought in a new head coach. Tubberville had lost control of team chemistry. They had the talent all along, but just didn’t get it done under him when it mattered. Now, they open the season for coach Chizik, and I expect them to shine. They have huge advantages on both sides of the ball, especially on defense where Auburn has the potential to be a top-10 defense. LA Tech is just 12-24 ATS in non-conference games since 2000, including 5-13 ATS since 2004, so I have no problem laying points with the Tigers here today. WAR EAGLE!

LSU: LSU is 18-7-1 ATS in non-conference games since the start of the 2003 season, while Washington is 6-11 ATS over their last 17 non-conference games. What’s more, Washington is a mere 12-22 ATS last 34 as double digit dogs, including 0-8 ATS in that role last year. Throw in the fact that LSU qualifies in two of our week-1 handicapping vault angles with records of 34-16-1 ATS (since 1998) and 20-5-1 ATS (since 1997), and it’s a no brainer. Lay the points with LSU.

[Rick's Picks]

Here are the lines I got......

5* NAVY +21.5 over Ohio State
5* GEORGIA +5 over Oklahoma State
5* VIRGINIA TECH +6.5 over Alabama
2* OHIO +3.5 over UConn
2* SYRACUSE +7 over Minnesota
2* AUBURN -13.5 over LA Tech
2* LSU -17.5 over Washington

[Swicat]

Swicat's picks

The great thing about betting is how 2 people can see the same thing so differently and it all gets sorted out.

Here are my picks:

5*
Minnesota -7 vs Syracuse- This game will be an ugly rout. Syracuse
does not have much going for it and to compound things they are
starting a qb who has not played football in how many years?
Honestly, I don't care what type of athlete he is, that first game
he will get turned around and be completely lost. Minnesota will
have to try not to win and even then should blow this one out.

Ohio State vs Navy- complete mismatch here. Navy gives a great
effort but they are outclassed at every position. Navy's 7 new starters will not be ready to take on this challenge coming out of of the shoot. Even if the buckeyes put in the 2nd string for the better part of the 2nd half,
they will have a talent advantage. Lay the big 22.5 lumber and then
regret that you did not bet more.

4*

I like both Central Michigan and W. Michigan as dogs. CMU travels
out to Zona. Zona is breaking in a new qb and their best player is
questionable. CMU has a good QB and will be looking to make a
statement. W. Mich is going against Michigan and this pick was made
before the scandal broke. I am hoping the michigan players don't
rally behind their coach. All things being equal, W. Mich has the
talent to hang in this one.

Kentucky vs Miami Oh. Kentucky has built a nice program under
Brooks. Miami is in a rebuilding year and this will be the first of
many lumps that they take.

> > 3*
Texas A&M over New Mexico- The aggies have been suffering but should
put together a decent season. New Mexico is bringing in a new coach
and system. I think the Aggies take care of business at home.

Va Tech/Bama under 38- I don't see much offense happening here
unless turnovers reign and turn into defensive TD's.

Baylor +2 vs Wake forest- The bears got thumped last year vs Wake.
Wake is bringing a whole new defense on board while Baylor hit their
stride last year. Should be a fun game and i think Baylor gets the W.


Good luck,
Swicat