Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Week 1 NFL Picks

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Week 1 NFL Picks

    After a very profitable preseason, hoping to keep it going.....

    Just three plays so far. I might add 1-2 more later, but this is it for now.

    5* UNDER 39 Dallas/Tampa Bay
    2* UNDER 35 Pittsburgh/Tennessee (Thursday)
    2* JACKSONVILLE +7 over Indianapolis

    Thursday:
    UNDER Pittsburgh/Tennessee: Week 1 games tend to be a bit lower scoring than the those later in the season. Defenses are usually more ready than are offenses as offensive timing usually takes a little time. Notably, UNDERs have cashed 55% of the time for all games played in the first two weeks dating back to 1989. Tennessee has been a solid UNDER team in early season games going 8-15 UNDER in the first two games of their season dating back to 1997. Both these teams possess very strong defensive units so expect them to dominate making this a game of field position. Throw in a nice 3-17 UNDER system that dates back to 1997 found in our handicapping vault, and this one is a no brainer for a play. Look low.

    UNDER Dallas/Tampa Bay: The Bucs are notorious for low scoring games early in the season. They are 5-17 UNDER in their first two games dating back to 1998. Throw in a very strong 4-23 UNDER system play that is found in our handicapping vault, and this one goes off as a 5* in week 1.

    JACKSONVILLE +7 over Indianapolis: Jacksonville is 4-0-1 ATS at Indianapolis the last five years, and they are 8-2 ATS last 10 season openers. Indianapolis has a long history of struggles as divisional home favorites as they are a mere 7-22-2 ATS when laying single digits to a divisional foe at home last few years. Jacksonville also would qualify in a 21-3 ATS week 1 system as if they were to move back to 6.5 dog or less. That system is based on their win total from last season and this being their season opener, and when combined with Indianapolis’ divisional home favorite struggles it gives us a nice opening week play. Take the points here with Jacksonville.

  • #2
    Good Luck with your plays, but I disagree with Pitt Under. Pitt Over 35

    Last 7 opening games for Pitt played Over
    Tenn is 8-1 Over Last 9 in Pitt
    Tenn/Pitt have combined score more than 40 in 9 of the last 10 meetings.

    I think the defenses are still in the perseason mode and don't pick it up until the second game.

    BUT going against that 3-17 under system sounds dangerous.
    good luck

    Comment


    • #3
      I'm not a big trend bettor. I can flip a coin 365 times, once for each day of the year and find a trend. Tails came up 11-1 on the first Tuesday of the month. The odds tails winning again on the first Tuesday of the next month 50-50.

      Now some trends may hold stock more than others. West Coast to East coast or Indoor vs. Outdoor games.

      Just be careful with trend bets...in my opinion.

      Comment


      • #4
        agree somewhat....for instance, the 8-1 OVER last 9 is a trend. The 3-17 UNDER system and the 4-23 UNDER system I have in my writeups is not a trend, but rather a mathematically sound system that is is time tested with great results. What's more, its not a trend that early season games have stayed UNDER 55% of the time over the years, but rather the result of defenses being further along than offenses at this early point. That said, thanks for the feedback, and look forward to many winners for both of us.

        Rick

        Comment


        • #5
          Garister -

          You stated that "Tenn is 8-1 Over Last 9 in Pitt and Tenn/Pitt have combined score more than 40 in 9 of the last 10 meetings."

          This is true, so do you wonder why the line is 35 points? That alone should be telling us something.

          Additionally, your statement that you "think the defenses are still in the perseason mode and don't pick it up until the second game" is totally untrue. Defenses are ready to go in week one. Offenses are the ones that usually take a few games as offense is all about timing. Not just QBs to wide receivers, but also running backs hitting holes and offensive lineman working together. Offenses don't see anything but vanilla defenses in preseason, and therefore are usually behind the power curve to start the regular season.

          Rick

          Comment


          • #6
            Adding one more.....


            2* DETROIT +13 over New Orleans

            DETROIT: Yes, they were horrible last year, but expect better things from them this year as they look to get back some credibility in the league. New Orleans is laying double digits here, but they are just 4-13 ATS over the years when favored by more than a touchdown. What’s more, week 1 favorites of more than a touchdown are just 14-28 ATS since 1994 league-wide. Last year’s winless season has Detroit getting value in these early season games. Look for the cover here in week 1.

            Comment


            • #7
              Nice call on the under last night, It was NEVER in doubt.
              good luck

              Comment

              Working...
              X