NEVER GIVE OUT PARLAYS

[red raider 84]

Bama,Penn. st.Notre Dame, CHA, CHING

[twooez]

total loser

N Dame & PSU lose out right

[red raider 84]

Really just a bs pick, other than bama. Since you're so sure I guess I will call the man and fire down on Iowa and Purdue.

[twooez]

My reason Both games

Iowa +10

I have had the opportunity to watch both Iowa and Penn State play three times so far this season and despite the revenge angle and the home field for Penn State I don’t see ten points worth of difference between these two football teams. Todd McShay talked a little bit yesterday on ESPN about Penn State’s offensive line issues so far this season. While PSU did rush the ball well against Temple last week, they still had problems with their pass protection schemes as they had to replace three all-conference linemen from last year as well as three senior receivers. QB Darryl Clark is playing well, but he doesn’t have as much time to throw the football as he did last year and most of his throws so far this season have been short to intermediate routes. RB Evan Royster is an explosive tailback but his back-up Stephan Green has struggled thus far, which again I think has something to do with PSU’s offensive line. WR’s Derek Moye, Graham Zug and Chaz Powell are all going to be really good someday, but right now they are still inexperienced in big games (they won’t be facing Akron, Syracuse or Temple this week) and will be facing a fierce Iowa secondary. While Iowa did lose two defensive linemen to the NFL last year, their pass rush has been comparable to last years and their run defense has only declined slightly.

Iowa’s offense has surprised me this year as I thought after losing Shon Greene to the NFL draft and Jewell Hampton to injury that they wouldn’t have much of a running game. Enter freshmen tailbacks Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher, who have both done an outstanding job thus far against some pretty good defenses. Robinson tweaked his ankle at the end of last week’s game but all reports I read listed him as the starting running back this week. Iowa’s left tackle is questionable for this game as is their TE Tony Moeaki, but WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos will play this week. QB Ricky Stanzi has performed very well this season, particularly on third down, which is something I noticed with him towards the end of last season. His mobility and toughness make him a tough quarterback for opposing defenses to game plan for. WR’s Trey Stross and Marvin McNutt have stepped in nicely and made some big plays for Iowa’s offense.

Kirk Ferentz will have his team prepared to face Joe Pa’s squad in Happy Valley, at night, in a white out. This should be a great game.


Purdue +8

Don’t let last week’s lost to NIU fool you, Purdue head coach has this team headed in the right direction. Purdue is a young squad who got caught looking ahead to Notre Dame last week and a solid NIU squad snuck up and bit them. Purdue catches Notre Dame this week with many of their playmakers on offense hurt. Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd, arguably one of the best receivers in the nation, broke his collar bone last week and will be out for this week’s game. FB James Aldridge will also not play this week due to injury. Tailback Armando Allen was limited in practice this week due to an ankle injury, which means he comes into this week’s game at less than full strength. Throw in that QB Jimmy Clausen tweaked his foot in the second half of last week’s game and Notre Dames offense should be merely mortal this week. This is a good thing for Purdue because they aren’t exactly a defensive juggernaut. Purdue does get back one of their top secondary players this week which should help their pass defense tremendously as Notre Dame still has WR Golden Tate and TE Kyle Rudolph to account for.

If anyone got to watch Purdue play Oregon a couple of weeks ago, or even their game against Toledo, you would understand that Purdue has an excellent scheme on offense. They will run a variety of plays out of many different offensive sets and will base much of their offense around tailback Ralph Bolden, who is averaging 6.4 yards per carry and has 4 TD’s this season. Purdue’s ground attack doesn’t stop there as RB Jaycen Taylor has rebounded from a knee injury last year and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and has scored 3 TD’s so far. Purdue senior QB Joey Elliot is extremely mobile, averaging five yards per carry and has a couple of rushing TDs this season. He has completed a high percentage of his passes (61%) but will need to make good decisions with the football. He has a strong arm and a quick release but must remember to take what the defense gives him. Purdue has three talented WR’s to distribute the ball to in Keith Smith, Aaron Valentin and Kyle Adams. All three aren’t game breakers, but they have good hands and are solid possession guys.

I’m not sure we will see a whole lot of defense and understand that Purdue’ offense, especially with the injuries to Notre Dame’s offensive unit, is every bit as explosive as Notre Dame’s. I see a motivated home team, plus more than a TD, and I’ve got to bite here.

[twooez]

Also

Remember something, Vegas doesn't give away free money. The Notre Dame/Purdue game Everyone is going to be on Notre Dame on Saturday, no one will take Purdue after they lost SU to Northern Illinois on Saturday, yet the line opened at 8.5 and has moved down to 6.5? with 80% pubic on ND Are you telling me Vegas is saying "here fellas, take Notre Dame so we can give you some free cash", I don't think so. Notre Dame is VERY suspect on defence, giving up 38 against Michigan and 30 against Michigan State. Now look at Purdue, they put up 52 points against Toledo, 36 against Oregon and they had a BAD game against Northern Illinois (and teams DO HAVE BAD GAMES!) where they only put up 28. But the fact here is Purdue is going to be focused on this game after the upset, and their offense CAN put up a big number against a suspect Notre Dame defence. This is going to be a high scoring affair, with both teams trading points all day, but at the end of the day, it's going to be a close one.

[red raider 84]

Wow, lots of info. I think I stay with my guns and Penn st. and Notre Dame both win. You may be right, but I don't think so!! Either way, I made a pile of money on the tide!!!!!!!!!!!!! Again, sorry sec king!!!!

[Boone Moone]

Nice going Twooez............Great theory and write-up on the ND/Purdue game.........That's what it's all about guy........Great call !!

[red raider 84]

TWO EZ

Good call twoEZ!!!!!! Love when I'M right, but man up when I'm wrong. Notre Dame got lucky just to win. Man, is the big ten really that bad? I thought that Texas looked really good today. Football is crazy, but can't think of anything I would love to do on a Saturday except maybe to shoot 72 on the links. Again, great call on Notre Dame and Penn st.. HATS OFF TO YOU!!!!

[twooez]

More to come

Thanks guys More to come

Twooez

[twooez]

This for Red Raider & Boone

Vanderbilt +9.5

This is going to be a tough game to watch as Vanderbilt does not play a very pretty style of football. One thing they do well, though, is play defense and they catch Ole Miss, a team they match up well with, off a tough loss that dropped them out of the Top 5. Bobby Johnson is a solid coach and he has had the same coaching staff for the last seven years, which is a sign of a cohesive coaching staff. The Vandy staff will need to have their defense prepared because the Ole Miss offense does have some playmakers, particularly Dexter McCluster. Look for Vandy to put pressure on Ole Miss QB Jevon Snead who has been particularly accurate thus far. I’ve also noticed that the Ole Miss offensive line isn’t holding up as well this year which is affecting both their running game and passing game. Vandy will also have to keep an eye on WR Shay Hodge and RB Brandon Bolden. If the Vandy defense can stay disciplined in their assignments I think they have the chance to keep this a low-scoring, grind it out game where the points will be come more valuable in the fourth quarter. Offensively, a lot will rest on Vandy QB Larry Smith. The best way I can describe Smith is that he’s a poor man’s Dennis Dixon. He can make plays with his feet and doesn’t throw the prettiest ball but he does know how to move the chains by getting the ball to his receiving corps who has six pass catchers with over six receptions. The problem is that they only have one TD catch between all of them, which is why the return of RB Jared Hawkins, last year’s leading rusher, is especially important when the team reaches the red zone. Vandy is typically a tough home dog in conference play and while the game may give you an ulcer while watching it I think Vandy can turn this game into a defensive battle and give themselves a shot in the fourth quarter this week.

[twooez]

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UCLA +6

I respect what Stanford has done thus far this season but UCLA has quietly built themselves one of the better defensive units in the country and that alone should give them a real shot in this game. If you give me Rick Neuheisel with two weeks to prepare that also perks my interest as he is showing many people why he is one of the more underrated head coaches in the country. He will be facing “Captain Comeback” Jim Harbaugh this week in what should be a good match-up of coaches. Much is being made about UCLA’s QB Kevin Craft starting this week and while Craft did struggle last year I was able to watch him play against Kansas State and he looked much improved. Craft won’t be asked to do much as he will be handing off to workhorse RB Johnathon Franklin (4.7 ypc, 2 TD). Expect back-up Derrick Coleman (6.4 ypc, 1 TD) to get his fair share of carries as well. WR’s Taylor Embree and Terrence Austin combine to form an explosive pass catching duo and they should get some one-on-one matchups as the Stanford D will look to stack up against the run. I’ve watched Stanford’s secondary and feel these two guys can bust them for a big play or two, which will go a long way when we have the better defensive football team, catching points to boot. Stanford’s offense revolves around one player, multi-sport athlete RB Toby Gerhart (5.7 ypc, 5 TD). UCLA’s defense is stout against the run and should be able to keep Gerhart from breaking many long runs. QB Andrew Luck has two favorite targets in possession receiver Ryan Whalen and Chris Owusu. The UCLA secondary will be challenged, especially by Owusu who has already returned three kickoffs back for a TD, but they are very talented unit. If UCLA can prevent any big kickoff returns and make Stanford earn it down the field they have a shot to win this game. They also have the best kicker in the nation in Kai Forbath and he could make a big difference in this game. Give me Slick Rick, a great D, Forbath and his leg and the points please.

[twooez]

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Cal +6

The Cal team that was destroyed last week by Oregon is not the Cal team we will see this week. The thing about college football, as most of you know, is that a team is never as good as they may have played one week and never as bad as they may have played another week. We are going to get Cal’s best effort and part of the reason is that they are playing at home. The difference between Cal’s performances at home compared to that on the road is overwhelmingly eye opening. They will be extremely motivated this week as they will be facing conference rival USC, a team they have struggled with for the better part of the last decade. If there was ever a time for Cal to catch USC it’s now as USC is still breaking in their talented freshman QB Matt Barkley and they unfortunately will be without their red zone RB Stafon Johnson, who was injured in a weight lifting accident earlier this week. While I do see some issues with the Cal linebackers, I think they have a particularly stout defensive line and a very experienced secondary. Cal will have to eye RB Joe McKnight and WR Ronald Johnson, USC’s top two playmakers. If they can limit big plays from these two players they will be able to get their defense off the field vs. a USC offense that is really struggling to convert third downs. Offensively, USC will look to load the line of scrimmage against talented Cal RB Jevod Best. I like that Best has dropped out of the Heisman talk as I think it will motivate him to have a big performance in a national spotlight game. He may have to do some of his damage through catching passes as the USC run D is also very strong. Back-up tailback Shane Vereen, who could start for many other teams in the country, could also play a role in this game. Cal QB Kevin Riley missed a lot of throws last week, but like most of his teammates, he performs a lot better at home. Despite the loss of veteran WR Nate Boateng, Cal has Verran Tucker (22 ypr, 3 TD) still and three other talented guys in Marvin Jones, Jeremy Ross and Anthony Miller. These two teams match-up quite well and anytime I can get a running dog, at home, off a bad loss, vs. a conference rival, I will usually bite.

[twooez]

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SMU +28

Most of my handicapping buddies had the most issue with this particular play of mine this week and I know that they respect TCU’s program a lot and that they also don’t follow June Jone’s SMU program as closely as I do. TCU is fresh off an emotional win at Clemson, one in which they put themselves in a very good position to be a BCS Buster. They come back this week to play cross town little brother and while I know Gary Patterson is a terrific coach, I think he is going to have a tough time getting his team interested in this game. At worst I see TCU having a first quarter hangover and when you have a team built around defense and the running game if they give up a first quarter score it’s going to be very difficult for them to cover this number. This wager is only based slightly about going against TCU, because if you do that regularly you will end up in the poor house. This wager, rather, is about playing on an improved SMU squad that is extremely well coached and has a week off to prepare to boot. The main matchup that I feel SMU will have some success is exploiting the TCU secondary. TCU’s run defense is as good as any in the country but because of their aggressive style they constantly leave their defensive backs on islands. The SMU receiving corps has two very talented receivers, whom Jones has said are as good as any he’s coached at any level. WR Emmanuel Sanders (35 rec, 1 TD) is a tremendously talented WR and also doubles as a return man. WR Aldrick Robinson (11 TD ’08) battled through injury earlier in the year and is now finally fully healthy and should also play an important role in this game. It will be imperative that SMU QB Bo Levi Mitchell make good decisions with the football this week to allow his team to keep drives alive. Also SMU will still have to show the running game and they finally have found one in Shawnbery McNeal (5.0 ypc, 2 TD). Jones is particularly famous for the way he uses shovel passes as runs. SMU’s run defense has improved this season which will be key for them in matching up with TCU’s running game. Dalton threw a lot last week and I look for Patterson to try and re-establish the running game which could play into SMU’s favor, allowing them to stay within the four TD spread. If SMU can contain RB Joseph Turner and limit big plays through the air by Jeremy Kerley they have a shot to do so on Saturday.

[woodee12]

Good Stuff!!

I like your plays but you are the only one I have seen that like SMU with me. I have been going back and forth on it, and think the motivation is the key factor here.

Also, another one which is probably a pass but a classice let-down spot is Iowa -21.5 vs. Arkansas State. Iowa has Michigan next week, and Arky State is not half bad. Ferenzy usually has his team focused and this could be a pure blow-out or the hawks will release in the 4th quarter to allow a back-door cover. What do you think on this one, if anything?

[red raider 84]

After last week who am I to argue with you!!! Great stuff, will look at these games closer tomorrow. Appreciate the time and effort you spent on this.