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The current line at sports.com sports book is Minnesota -5 with a total of 46. The line opened at -3.5 but everyone seems to be expecting Favre to really have it out for his old team. I'm not sure that's the case. In fact, he is likely to have mixed emotions about it. But I'm sure his teammates will be extra fired up for this one, especially the defense perhaps?
Not sure I like the spread that much either way, but the total of 46 looks interesting.
Viking Offense - Minnesota is likely to pound the ball a lot with RB Adrian Peterson tonight. The Vikings are only averaging around 170 yds per game passing, and their longest pass play has only been 36 yds. They are averaging 30 rushes per game, with Peterson getting around 20 of those, and doing well with them with 357 yds and 4TD's, and a healthy 6.1 ypc average. They did pass a lot more against San Francisco, but the 49er's were doing a pretty good job of shutting down the running game, as Peterson was held to 85 yds on 19 carries, and 35 yds of that was on one play. Plus, the Vikes were airing it out on the 80 yd winning drive. Overall, the Vikings are only averaging 317 ypg on offense, and their offensive point total of 81 is probably a little deceiving as they have played 2 of the poorer defenses in Cleveland and Detroit, and probably should have been held to just 20 against the 49ers (if not for the miracle TD completion at the end). They just don't have a very scary passing attack, with RB Chester Taylor leading the pack with just 15 receptions for 103 yds, and rookie Percy Harvin 2nd with 12 for 128 yds. In last year's 2 meetings, the Vikings were held to well under 200 yds passing in both games (with Tavarius Jackson and Gus Frerotte), with Peterson rumbling for a combined 49 carries for 295 yds and 2 TD's. The total in the 1st game was 43, which including 7 pts on a punt return. And 55 in the second game, which featured 2 safeties on GB, and 2 DST scores by the Packers.
Viking Defense - The Viking defense is only allowing an average of 259 yds per game, 167 yds passing and 92 rushing. They have also allowed just 8 of 32 3rd down conversions, or just 22%. They have 8 sacks and have forced 6 turnovers (4 INTs'), and have not allowed a rushing TD.
Packer Offense - Green Bay is only averaging 313 yds of offense per game, 105 rushing and 207 passing, and have just 74 pts attributed to the offense. Of course 421 yds and 36 of those points came against St Louis last week. RB Ryan grant has done OK, logging 206 yds and 2 TD's on 56 carries, for a 3.7 ypc average, but his longest run has only been 17 yds. QB Rodgers can scamper a bit too with 15 rushes for 88 yds (5.9 yd avg) and a TD. He has been able to find WR's Donald Driver and Greg Jennings for several big plays resulting in 3 TD's, but for the most part has been pretty average. The Green Bay offense has only turned the ball over 1 time (fumble). In the 2 meetings last year, Rodgers was a combined 33 of 48 but for just 320 yds and 1 TD, with no INT's. Grant had pretty good success with a combined 28 carries for 167 yds (5.9 ypc avg), and 1 TD.
Packer Defense - Green Bay is giving up an average of around 335 yds per game, with nearly 129 of those coming on the ground. They have only generated 5 sacks for 28 yds, but have forced 9 TO's, including 7 INT's, however, 4 of those INT's came against Chicago in Cutler's Bear debut the 1st game of the season. They have given up 63 pts, with nearly half of those coming from the 31-24 loss to the Bengals in Week 2. They have given up 300 yds rushing in the past 2 weeks to the Bengal and Ram rushing attacks.
Everyone likes high scoring Monday Night games, and the total is likely adjusted a little to reflect that. While I was writing this, the total has jumped to 46.5, and we may even see a 47, at least temporarily.
In the last 6 meetings, the totals have been 16, 40, 34, 39, 43 and 55. As mentioned before, the '55' featured 2 safeties and 2 defensive/special team scores.
I am expecting a lower scoring game, with the running games dominating. As long as we don't get a bunch of defense/special teams scoring like in the 2nd meeting last year , I think the under looks like a decent proposition.
As for the 5 pt spread, the margins of victory in 5 of the last 6 meetings have been 2, 6, 7, 5 and 1. In the other game, featuring Brooks Bollinger at QB for Minnesota, a Favre-led 2007 Green Bay team rolled 34-0.
If I had to make a spread pick, I think I would be tempted to go with the hype, and pick the Viking defense to shut down the Pack in a game something like Vikings 24 Packers 16.
But my best bet would be UN 46.5 (or more hopefully), and maybe a parlay on Min -2.5 / UN 48 where I would buy 1 1/2 pts on the total and 2 1/2 on the spread. (at sports.com you can buy up to 3 pts). That parlay would pay around +160.
Disclaimer: Keep in mind, I am overdue for a loss!
Not sure I like the spread that much either way, but the total of 46 looks interesting.
Viking Offense - Minnesota is likely to pound the ball a lot with RB Adrian Peterson tonight. The Vikings are only averaging around 170 yds per game passing, and their longest pass play has only been 36 yds. They are averaging 30 rushes per game, with Peterson getting around 20 of those, and doing well with them with 357 yds and 4TD's, and a healthy 6.1 ypc average. They did pass a lot more against San Francisco, but the 49er's were doing a pretty good job of shutting down the running game, as Peterson was held to 85 yds on 19 carries, and 35 yds of that was on one play. Plus, the Vikes were airing it out on the 80 yd winning drive. Overall, the Vikings are only averaging 317 ypg on offense, and their offensive point total of 81 is probably a little deceiving as they have played 2 of the poorer defenses in Cleveland and Detroit, and probably should have been held to just 20 against the 49ers (if not for the miracle TD completion at the end). They just don't have a very scary passing attack, with RB Chester Taylor leading the pack with just 15 receptions for 103 yds, and rookie Percy Harvin 2nd with 12 for 128 yds. In last year's 2 meetings, the Vikings were held to well under 200 yds passing in both games (with Tavarius Jackson and Gus Frerotte), with Peterson rumbling for a combined 49 carries for 295 yds and 2 TD's. The total in the 1st game was 43, which including 7 pts on a punt return. And 55 in the second game, which featured 2 safeties on GB, and 2 DST scores by the Packers.
Viking Defense - The Viking defense is only allowing an average of 259 yds per game, 167 yds passing and 92 rushing. They have also allowed just 8 of 32 3rd down conversions, or just 22%. They have 8 sacks and have forced 6 turnovers (4 INTs'), and have not allowed a rushing TD.
Packer Offense - Green Bay is only averaging 313 yds of offense per game, 105 rushing and 207 passing, and have just 74 pts attributed to the offense. Of course 421 yds and 36 of those points came against St Louis last week. RB Ryan grant has done OK, logging 206 yds and 2 TD's on 56 carries, for a 3.7 ypc average, but his longest run has only been 17 yds. QB Rodgers can scamper a bit too with 15 rushes for 88 yds (5.9 yd avg) and a TD. He has been able to find WR's Donald Driver and Greg Jennings for several big plays resulting in 3 TD's, but for the most part has been pretty average. The Green Bay offense has only turned the ball over 1 time (fumble). In the 2 meetings last year, Rodgers was a combined 33 of 48 but for just 320 yds and 1 TD, with no INT's. Grant had pretty good success with a combined 28 carries for 167 yds (5.9 ypc avg), and 1 TD.
Packer Defense - Green Bay is giving up an average of around 335 yds per game, with nearly 129 of those coming on the ground. They have only generated 5 sacks for 28 yds, but have forced 9 TO's, including 7 INT's, however, 4 of those INT's came against Chicago in Cutler's Bear debut the 1st game of the season. They have given up 63 pts, with nearly half of those coming from the 31-24 loss to the Bengals in Week 2. They have given up 300 yds rushing in the past 2 weeks to the Bengal and Ram rushing attacks.
Everyone likes high scoring Monday Night games, and the total is likely adjusted a little to reflect that. While I was writing this, the total has jumped to 46.5, and we may even see a 47, at least temporarily.
In the last 6 meetings, the totals have been 16, 40, 34, 39, 43 and 55. As mentioned before, the '55' featured 2 safeties and 2 defensive/special team scores.
I am expecting a lower scoring game, with the running games dominating. As long as we don't get a bunch of defense/special teams scoring like in the 2nd meeting last year , I think the under looks like a decent proposition.
As for the 5 pt spread, the margins of victory in 5 of the last 6 meetings have been 2, 6, 7, 5 and 1. In the other game, featuring Brooks Bollinger at QB for Minnesota, a Favre-led 2007 Green Bay team rolled 34-0.
If I had to make a spread pick, I think I would be tempted to go with the hype, and pick the Viking defense to shut down the Pack in a game something like Vikings 24 Packers 16.
But my best bet would be UN 46.5 (or more hopefully), and maybe a parlay on Min -2.5 / UN 48 where I would buy 1 1/2 pts on the total and 2 1/2 on the spread. (at sports.com you can buy up to 3 pts). That parlay would pay around +160.
Disclaimer: Keep in mind, I am overdue for a loss!
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