Dingers NFL Picks Week 6

[Dinger]

Developed my own system going into 6 years now. Strictly a number crunch with zero bias. Factors include points scored; points allowed; yardage; turnovers;time of possession; strength of schedule only to name a few.
Develop my own line and compare vs. Las Vegas.

2008 Record
2nd Place Bettors World NFL Pick of the Week Contest

2009 Record
Pick of the Week 5-0
Selected Miami +1 last week and they squeek out a win

Hilton Top Five (2-3) 11-14

Overall Record: 41-35
9-5 last week

Week 6 Picks
4* Det +13.5
1* Min -2.5
1* Oak +14
1* Sea -3
1* TB +3

Best of the Rest
Was -6.5
Cle +14
NO -3
Cin -4.5
Stl +10
NE -9.5
Chi +3.5
SD -3.5
Buf +9.5

Wow...my system likes every crappy team, not good. I don't know if my system if off or Las Vegas is starting to pad the number against these teams.
I have about a 2-3 point difference in spread on all these games ..except the Lions. I have Green Bay -5 vs GB -13.5....8.5 point difference. Can't argue when its 5-0 on the top pick though.

Not to thrilled about having to take the Lions in the Pick of the Week contest.

[red raider 84]

Do you always go with your number one play or do you somtimes bail on it if you don't like it? Just wondering.

[Dinger]

I'll bail out if there is a major injury in my top five picks (i.e Donavan Mcnabb). My current excell spread sheet doesn't have a formula for injuries or weather.

I also did bail on the Steelers in the Super Bowl last year.

Other than that I stick with the formula. I made major adjustment the first 4 years and still tinking with minor changes looking for that perfect formula.

I really want 90% of my lines to be 0-2 points different then Vegas. When I come across a game with 7 points different, its time to jump on it bet big, just like counting cards in Blackjack.