Washington Redskins on MNF?

[woodee12]

I keep thinking about it and I see this one being a huge surprise tonight.

Hard to take the skins, but I am going to hold my nose and play them for a small amount tonight.

Here's why:

Everyone is on Philly. 85% +.

Washington is at home.

They have a lot of bad stuff surrounding them with the coaching staff.

Most think they have NO shot.

One of those that looks too easy to take Philly.

I am going to watch the line climb all day up until kickoff and then grab what I can with the Skins.

Philly played horrible last week, and lost. So maybe they just aren;t that good. See the Giants, who have lost back-to-back as well.

Washington + as many point as they will give me is my play.

[daddyd]

Wow Woody if you are right Im prob screwed. Every game with the exceptions of about three went the way a square bettor would go. Im thinking Eagles and under straight and hooked. I never play under so I think Im gonna be on the pines after this game for awhile. Good luck to you whatever you play but Im gonna side with the general public tonight.

[daddyd]

Now Im second guessing myself on the total. Im leaning toward the overs now because I look at what the eagles have done with the exception of the last game. Once again good luck

[dragon1952]

It's hard to gauge the Redskins defense because of their easy schedule.....same with the Giants, and we've now seen them play 2 good teams in a row and lose. In fact, the Giants have given up 31, 27 and 24 to the only decent offensive teams they've faced.
The Redskins haven't given up more than 20 pts in the past 5 games, but have played 5 teams that are a combined 4-29 and who are only averaging around 13-14 pts per game. They gave up 23 to the Giants, but that was the 1st game of the season for both teams.
Philly has also only played 1 decent offensive team, in fact the best offensive team, and gave up 48. And offensively, they have feasted on lesser teams, except for the Oakland fiasco.
What we do know, is that Washington has trouble scoring pts, even against the worst defensive teams in the league. They haven't scored more than 17 pts all year, and have been held under 10 pts twice. That doesn't bode well for them to score much against Philadelphia. The Redskins are 24th in the league in total offense, averaging just 294 yds per game, and that is playing the bottom feeders. They are also -4 in TO ratio.
The Eagles are #4 in total defense, giving up just 282 YPG. And they are a +7 in TO ratio.
Washington's offensive weapons consist of QB Campbell (6 TD/6 INT), and then RB Portis, WR's Santana Moss and Randle-El, and TE Chris Cooley who have combined for just 5 TD's. Campbell has also been benched once for Todd Collins, and Portis has been playing at less than 100%.
Philadelphia has McNabb (5TD/1 INT in just 3 games), and then RB's Westbrook and McCoy, WR's D. Jackson, Maclin, Avant, and TE Celek who have combined for 10 TD's.
With just 8 offensive TD's, 8 FG's and no DEF/ST TD's over a 6 game period, I find it hard to believe the Redskins will be able to score more than 13 pts.
The Eagles should have success moving the ball with Washington unable to force TO's (3 INT's/4 FR's over 6 games). I can see them scoring at least 24, maybe more because of a decent possibility of a DEF/ST score, or at least a big DEF/ST play to set up an easy score. So a 24-13 or 27-13 game sounds pretty reasonable.
At my book, With the line now at Phi -9 and the total at 37.5, there's probably not a hell of a lot of value there. I definitely like Phi -7, and if I had to guess I would be tempted to take over 37, but I hate unders. Usually when I take an under there are a bunch of easy scores and it's over by HT.
I can buy up to 3 pts, so just to feed my addiction, I will probably play a Phi -6 and over 34.5 parlay which would pay around +150, or maybe a 6.5 pt teaser for Phi -2.5 and OV 31 that would pay around -115. Another possibility would be Phi -7 at -145. Either way, I just can't bite on Washington plus close to 10 pts because I don't think a Philly blow out is out of the question.
Anyway, good luck everyone whichever way you choose.

[garister]

Well if woodee is right, I am screwed too,
I love this spot for Philly here for the reasons woodee stated, Skins have given three winless teams their first victory and 2 other winless teams lthe skins won by a fg or less, Now I know the Eagles are much better than all those five teams.
Philly has been favored only twice vs the skins in the last 10 meetings,
by 7 and 10 and they covered both times by 3 TDs. I think the skins will be more aggressive on Offense so I'll give them DD scoring.


31-13 final prediction.

[Riker]

Chaos

I can't see the Skins winning tonight, or even covering. That team is in such chaos. Then again, I never wager for or against the home team, so I'm sitting this one out. And it IS a division rivalry, which tend to score closer. And Zorn is undefeated against the Eagles (I think)...still, I don't see it. (shaking my head)

-R.

[woodee12]

I grabbed the Skins at +9 (-115).

Lovin it!

(Again, this play smells like crap but I still like it as MNF public fade--Maybe Philly will win by 8 and we all will cash!)

[dragon1952]

Well, it's a good thing the Eagles have DeSean Jackson and a very good defense, because if they had to rely 100% on McNabb they'd be in deep shit. Kind of like the Redskins.
BTW....sorry woodee.

[woodee12]

Naw, I just tried to out-smart the average joe bettor, and it did not work. Sometime it does and sometimes the square play wins.

Both of those teams blow anyway.

I played it for small so I still came out on the + side of things for the week.

It was worth a shot, and ended up one point short.

Nice win for you guys on Philly and the over!