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Play against the public tonight?

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  • Play against the public tonight?

    This is setting up like the Cleveland/Buffalo game last year (wow, I cannot believe that was a MNF game!).

    The game opened up Buf -3, O/U 42. It went to Buf -5 and O/U 40.

    I can remember telling my friend when we were out in Vegas to go against the public. He had never heard of that issue and I talking him out of Buffalo. Basically, he played Cle +5 and Over and parlayed.

    Right now, a ton of money is coming in on NO and the Over. I am waiting for the line to go from 11' to 12 and O/U from 55.5 to the magical 56.


    Then again, as I just ran my query, MNF HF of 11' or more are 15-2 SU, and 8-7-1 ATS. This also included the 3-0 Pit/Mia turf/slop game in 2007 when the resodded the field the day before, that was genious!

    There were four games with O/U of 54 or more on MNF. The final score was close to the total. It went 1-3 U:

    Year Week Team Opponent Opponent's Conference Opponent's division Point Spread Team Score Opponent Score S/U Record ATS Record O/U Line Total Points O/U
    2000 12 Week N.20 ST. LOUIS RAMS WASHINGTON NFC NFC-E -5.5 20 33 L L 56 53 U
    2004 09 Week N.08 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS MINNESOTA NFC NFC-N -7 31 28 W L 58 59 O
    2006 15 Week D.18 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS CINCINNATI AFC AFC-N -3.5 34 16 W W 55 50 U
    2007 04 Week O.01 CINCINNATI BENGALS NEW ENGLAND AFC AFC-E 7.5 13 34 L L 54 47 U


    I just wasted everyone time on this, but I am leaning ATL +11.5 and U 55.5. I really would like 56 and then I would play it for double.

    BOL!

  • #2
    I like Atlanta tonight too.

    Just dropped from 11.5 to 11 at my book, so hopefully it will pop back up before kick-off, and I will grab it.

    Lean toward the under too.

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    • #3
      Wow i hate to take the team that just got clocked by the Dallas cowgirls. If Dallas can hang that kind of number on Atlanta, what can the Saints do? Hmmmmm sometimes if it smells like a turd and looks like a turd sometimes it really is a turd. Vegas will feel this one if the country is right. Im gonna bet with the squares tonight until the cash cow dies. Good Luck which ever way you play.

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      • #4
        It's just that Atlanta's secondary is REALLY bad. Even if a secondary is average, Brees would have a field day. This Grimes guy for Atlanta cannot cover anybody, much less the Saints WRs.

        Under 56 maybe, but even that might not be safe as I also respect Matt Ryan and Atlanta's O. I could see 38-24.

        No play for me, but gun to my head, Saints -11. The SuperDome will be rockin.' Atlanta would need return TDs like the Fins got to somehow pull the upset.

        GL

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        • #5
          I broke down and drank the OVER hype.

          But I still like the Falcons here too.

          so my small play is

          Atlanta +18
          OVER 48

          7-point tease.

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          • #6
            Truthfully, I have no clue. I watch everyones picks very closely. If Dinger, who I'm not putting down or anything loses on Atlanta tonight, will lose every pick he made this week. Don't know squat about his system but he seems to do pretty good most of the time. So I go with Dinger, which I like Atlanta all along. After all, this is not the rams or seahawks we are talking about. Falcons can and will score on Saints. I agree Brees is the man and he will do his thing. I think Ryan will keep Atlanta in it. Pros really not my thing but I hope Falcons keep it close and its entertaining. (Playing the odds with Dinger). Good luck to everyone!! Go falcons!!!

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            • #7
              Originally posted by red raider 84
              Playing the odds with Dinger. Good luck to everyone!! Go falcons!!!
              Ahhh......the ol' "due factor"

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              • #8
                I must be on full tilt just took the saint minus 12 and a hook and over 56 someone slap me

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                • #9
                  Don't know if it is the due factor or not, but no love is comming Atlanta's way and they are not that bad. Didn't they win the NFC south last year? Like the Titans yesterday, they weren't getting any love either and I knew they weren't as bad as there record indicated. Saints may blow them out but falcons have a decent offense also. Wouldn't supprise me if they win straight up. Already made my wager and I think its a good one.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by daddyd
                    I must be on full tilt just took the saint minus 12 and a hook and over 56 someone slap me
                    How about a bonk on the head?

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                    • #11
                      The falcons was the only team to loose in my parlay last week so just out of bitterness I'm not picking them

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                      • #12
                        yep Ill take the bonk prob not goin to the bonk on this one LOL

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                        • #13
                          total not lookin too bad

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                          • #14
                            ok will hit the over but i need 2 unanswered tds by the saints

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                            • #15
                              welll maybe not they got a field goal that prob screws me cause im givin 12 and a half like i said slap me

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