NFL Week 11 discussion

[dragon1952]

No picks yet, just looking for discussion on what's been happening.

New Orleans - What's going on with the Saint offense lately? Since the 2nd half of the Miami game they have looked downright average. I know their defense has taken some hits which explains their performance lately, but the offense has been kind of lethargic, by their standards, for 3 straight games. Lots of INT's and fumbling. I'm still looking for a 'get well' game, and this could be it.
Baltimore - Wow....really surprised at how bad Flacco and the Raven offense played against Cleveland. Flacco played like he was ill or something. Are we really supposed to believe that the Colts will be so 'down' after New England and with 2 divisional games on deck that the Ravens are actually favored?
Chicago/Philadelphia - Here are 2 teams that have looked awful at times lately. Both coming into this one having lost 2 in a row, and Philly actually favored by nearly a FG? They can't even pick up 1 yd when they need it. And Cutler coming off of a 5 pick game? To me, Philly looks like the much better team here and should cover the 2 1/2.
Cleveland/Detroit - Now here's a funny one. The teams are a combined 2-16 and Cleveland has only scored 5 offensive TD's in their last 15 games. At least Detroit can score a little, but we've got a team that has won 2 games in it's last 31 games, both 5 pt wins, and now are favored by 3 1/2? That tells you how bad Cleveland is.
Washington/Dallas - The Redskins have actually found a heartbeat with Ladell Betts running the ball. And just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water, the Cowboys look terrible in what looked like a very winnable game. This could be a tougher game than expected.
Green Bay/San Francisco - A week after getting trounced by Tampa Bay and then being no better than 3 pt home dogs to the Cowboys, the Packers are all of a sudden TD favorites over the 49ers? SF may only be 1-3 on the road, but they have been in every game losing by just 3 to Minnesota and Houston, and then by just 4 to the Colts. I think too much emphasis on the Packer win over the Cowboys, and the 49ers pathetic performance against Chicago last Thursday night. Which, BTW, gives the 49ers a couple extra days to prepare.
NYJets/New England - The Jets shut down the Pats in the first meeting, winning 16-9, and have now lost 4 games in their last 5 that they had very good chances of winning, losing by 4, 3 in OT, 5 and 2. they get the Pats after that huge letdown in Indianapolis and are 10 1/2 pt dogs? I don't know about that. The Jets are desperate for a win here, and although they probably won't win, they could at least make it difficult.
Denver/San Diego - We don't know the line yet, or the status of Orton, but Denver handled San Diego rather easily in the San Diego meeting and now get the Chargers at home needing a win badly. I've seen possible lines of San Diego being a 2 1/2 pt favorite, but not so sure I agree with that.
Tennessee/Houston - Tennessee has played great since coming off of their bye week with Vince Young at the helm, winning all 3 games and scoring 105 pts in the process. Chris Johnson has been on fire with 631 yds and 6 TD's in those 3 wins. I think giving them 4 1/2 pts here may be a little generous. The Titans are 4-3 vs Houston since 2006, with the 3 losses coming by 6 in OT, 1 and 3. Houston is just 2-2 at home this year, with the wins coming against 2-7 Oakland and then a 3 pt win over the 49ers.

Fire away.

[dragon1952]

OK, OK.....not everyone at once now. Let's be nice and take turns.

[widestrides]

Tampa Bay has shown some spunk recently. Saints outside and on grass not the same. TB +11.5 may have more value, but Saints certainly capable of covering. I'll pass.

I'll take the Ravens vs the Colts! It's now Colts -1 after opening Ravens -1. They will be sky high to knock off the Colts. Remember two years ago when they had the undefeated Pats all but beat until Rex Ryan, their D coordinator, called that last second timeout that gave Brady another chance at the 4th down? Colts WILL have a letdown after that game. And the Colts are really missing some injured folks. It will catch up to them. I would take the Pats +3 again this week if they were playing the Colts, even if you wiped the last game out of their memory banks so there wouldn't be the revenge incentive. Colts D was exposed. But maybe the Pats D was also.

Cutler and McNabb. Eagles went from -1 to -3! Two schizophrenic QBs. Take the over 45. Big plays and turnovers. Philly D will come after Cutler even more than SF did. Cutler doesn't have the experienced or big play receivers and no running game, but he can be dangerous.

Take Detroit. Cleveland cannot score. Detroit D not that bad and O can put up some points. Detroit has the better attitude. Morale has to be low in Cleveland.

Take the Skins +11.5. Opened at +13 and went to +11.5. Division rivalry game. Too many points and Skins good D will keep Romo and Co. in check. Could even be an upset special if they score some defensive or special teams points.

SF's offense is anemic. GB should keep it going but I don't know about covering -6.5. Take the under 42.5 as both D's may throttle the O's. GBs O stands a better chance against SF's D than SF's O against GB's D.

Jets/NE. Just don't know what happened to that vaunted Jets' D. No play. Big revenge game for NE but -10.5 is a lot in a division rivalry game. I like over 45 if the weather is okay.

I like Denver if they are catching points or less than -3. They really had SD's # in SD. And Philly put up a ton of yards vs the SD D. I like it even with Chris Simms if Orton can't play. Give him a week of reps in practice. And that will also give the Broncs more points. Maybe +2 or +3?

Tenny/Houston. Close division rivalry game. Take the points? Opened at -3.5 and went to -4.5. Houston off a bye though and playing well. MNF over 48 special?

Others not on dragon's report:

I think I like the Fins at home +3 or +3.5 vs the Panthers Thursday night. Ronnie Brown is out but Pat White may surprise. Panthers have lost important starters for the year. Last was Thomas Davis and now Justin Gross. Or Jake wil turn into a pumpkin at any given moment. Important game for both. Loser goes home for the year?

Cards -9 at St. Louis. Rams gave it the ol' college try last week, but Curt Warner will feel at home in the Dome in St. Louis. Cards are rolling. They have a D to go with their O now.

Giants should win an important match-up vs Atlanta. Falcons 4th road game in 5 weeks I think and may be without RBs Turner AND Norwood. Both secondaries are weak so I like the over. No lines posted yet. Oh, just saw Giants -6. Too many. Go with the over 46.5.

Is Jax really good enough to be laying -9 vs Buffalo, I don't like Buffalo, but they have a decent D don't they and their O came to life a little bit last week.

Cinci should roll Oakland, but maybe take the over 36 to be safe. Cinci should score at least 31 and Gratkowski is not as bad as Russell. About time they sat Russell b4 they ruin him for good. Look what the time off did for Vince Young.

These are just leans. I reserve the right to flip flop in the next few days!

GL

[Krichinsky]

PITTSBURGH/KANSAS CITY Pittsburgh -10

Despite their loss last week, I really like the Steelers in this spot.
KC has little in the running game. Against Oakland, Charles was 1-44
for one TD run and 17-59 the rest of the day.
Pittsburgh got 2 INTs against Cassel last year.

Dragon, you are right on with INDI. Although, I think they
are due for a loss maybe two in the next month. Which may not
be a bad thing as the playoffs get close.

I like San Fran here as well. Tony Romo struggles against
3-4 defenses and it showed in Sunday's loss to Green Bay.
I'm interested to see how Alex Smith does.

[Krichinsky]

Lean on INDI is mostly because I don't think the Ravens
QB or receivers can expose the depleted D of the Colts.

At least the way they are playing now.

[dragon1952]

Good input!
I don't know. Flacco and that OL are going to have to improve in a hurry to have a chance against Freeney and Mathis. If Cleveland can frustrate him, just wait until this week.
I'm with widestrides. I like Denver getting points even with Simms.
The Fins are on the road, not at home, and I like Carolina -3 especially with Brown out. Maybe not like it well enough to bet on it, but in a pick-em contest anyway. The Panthers have shown a pulse, and Fins coming off of an in-state rivalry squeaker.
I think I'd take the Giants -6.5 in a pick-em contest. Atlanta's defense sucks, and Michael Turner out although Snelling no slouch. I think the Giants come out swinging after the bye.
I agree, Jax laying 9 is almost humorous.
Benson might be out for Cincy. Don't know how rookie Barnard Scott or newcomer LJ would work out at RB.

[widestrides]

Oops! Fins AT Carolina,not at home. My bad. All bets are off for me. Maybe if Fins go to +3.5, but Carolina at home is a different animal, if they are not giving more than 3. Fins secondary not so hot.

[Dinger]

This year the Detroit Lions are close stats wise is alot of games this year, however where it counts most scoreboard this has been lopsidded. My excel spreadsheat has Detroit Lions winning by 10 points...we will see.

Jacksonville...along with the Lions, my system love the Jaguars and every year they come up short. I have them the Jaguars at -12.5 compared to Vegas -8.

My system likes the Jets...can't explain. Lets see if they cover against the Patriots.

Wow...I have the Bears -1 vs Vegas +2.5.

I also have Baltimore favored by -1 vs Vegas at a PK.

Houston is rated high in my system, let's watch this team over the stretch.

Vikings not rated so high, might be because of the early week schedule.