MNF--Houston vs. Tenny

[woodee12]

I have a string lean towards Houston tonight and possibly the UNDER.

It seems as if everyone is on the OVER 48, and from what I saw 70% of the bets are on the over as well.

So do I play contrarian and go with the under or lay off it with teams with pretty weak defenses?

Anothe look that I may go with is Tenny +3 in the first half...I don't know how many of you ready the e-mail Jeff sent out with Kevin O'neil's new blog, but I got a good tip out of it on betting 1st halves in the NFL where the teams are pretty close.

Already used it in the Miami game on Thursday, and with the Bears last night (which got a push at +1) and think they may be another good spot.

But the jist of it is that a strong % of NFL games are tied at halftime, and anytime you can get a + number on a comeptitive team, then it s good value, and getting a FG is even better.

So after thinking about it, that may be my only play on the game, Tenny +3 for the 1st half.

[daddyd]

woody I like houston tonight also. I think though this one sails over the total last meeting alot of points scored and texans win by 3. This time at home i can see alot of the same stuff. Houston needs this game and the titans are toast just my 2 cents worth.

[dragon1952]

I really need Houston to win by 5 or more to stay with winandwin in the Hilton contest.....sorry winandwin....no offense.
I also need a huge game out of Schaub for a couple fantasy football games.
Having said that, I made a couple small wagers, assuming an over.
I've got Ten +7/OV 45.5 and Hou ML/OV 45.
Hopefully this will be an entertaining match-up......meaning 'lots of points'......and a 6 pt Texan win

[woodee12]

After watching most of the 1st quarter, I cannot see Houston losing this game.

I made an in-game bet of the Texans -7.

Losing a lot of value there, but the texans D is all over Young so far.

Unless Young can connect with some passes, I think this one gets out of hand.

[daddyd]

Good luck woody not sure about the play but the overs is looking alright.

[daddyd]

Now the total not lookin so good hope it changes

[daddyd]

what a turd game got a good one next week prob gonna end up 2 points away from the total. Oh well thats MNF

[woodee12]

Anothe look that I may go with is Tenny +3 in the first half...I don't know how many of you ready the e-mail Jeff sent out with Kevin O'neil's new blog, but I got a good tip out of it on betting 1st halves in the NFL where the teams are pretty close.

Already used it in the Miami game on Thursday, and with the Bears last night (which got a push at +1) and think they may be another good spot.

But the jist of it is that a strong % of NFL games are tied at halftime, and anytime you can get a + number on a comeptitive team, then it s good value, and getting a FG is even better.

Seeing how the game was tied at half, here is more info it. Glad I took the under too, b/c I lost my "live" bet on the Texans at -7. I should never bet those when i have other interests in the game but made a call when it looked like Houston was really moving the ball and VY was getting nowhere...




http://lifetimesportswinner.com/blog/ (think its OK to post this since I orginally got it from BW)

Here is the actual infor from the report from O'Neil and Fezzik...Link above to their blog.



Concept 1: Understanding Your Sports. When is the First Half a Better Bet than
the Full Game?

Sometimes betting the first half in a football game (or a basketball game, or a baseball
game) can be a decidedly better bet than a full game.
2
Copyright 2009 Strategic Sports Marketing, Inc.
Let’s use a football example. Say that you like a 1-point underdog in a NFL game.
They are +1-point for the game, +1/2-point in the first half and maybe +105 or so on the
money line.
Should you just fire away and take the dog plus a point (note: this is true for any NFL
dog of less than 3), or is there a better way?
To answer this question let’s think about the scoring patterns of a NFL game.
The most likely result of any given NFL game is the favorite winning by 3 points. This
happens in nearly 10% of all NFL games, and in low lined games like this it is actually
more. So the most likely result of this game is “favorite by 3”.
The most likely result of any given NFL game’s first half is a tie.
So if you bet the team at +1 for the game, the most likely final score of that game,
favorite wins by 3, is a loss for you.
But if you bet the same team in the first half at +˝ , the most likely half time score of
that game, a tie, is a win for you.
Are their instances when the favorite leads at halftime and the dog comes back to
cover? Of course. But the reverse can be true as well. And the sports bettor with a
good head on his shoulder accepts these anomalies and knows that it is almost always
better to bet the NFL small dog in the first half.
This is just a single instance of when the first half is better than the game. There are
plenty more. The better you understand the inner workings of the sports you bet on, in
this case the patterns of scoring in NFL games, the better bets you will find.